2017 Nova Scotia election (May 30)

[DC Al Fine]

Suburban Halifax
The outlying areas of Halifax are diverse, with a mix of working class areas, well to do suburbs and more conservative rural areas*

Bedford
This suburban riding is one of the wealthiest in the province, consisting almost entirely of upper middle class professionals, wealthier immigrant. It has grown rapidly in the past 20 years or so and has lost a some of it's NDP areas in the last redistribution. Bedford was historically Tory, but swung Liberal in '09 in the wake of the PC debacle and the local Tory MLA's spending scandal. The riding is represented by Labour Minister,Kelly Regan, wife of Halifax West MP Geoff Regan. This is the sort of seat the Tories could win in Halifax if they form government, but the Regan family is quite popular in Bedford. The only way the Liberals are losing this is if the wheels fall off their campaign
Safe Liberal

Halifax Atlantic
Like Halifax Citadel, Halifax Atlantic is a riding of extremes. It contains wealthy oceanfront homes, poor suburban public housing projects and small fishing villages further away from the city. Tory Premier John Buchanan represented this riding in the 70's and 80's. The NDP riding won in a massive landslide in 2009 before losing it in an upset to the Liberals. Of note the Tories are running the former Liberal MLA for Timberlea-Prospect, Bruce Holland. Holland lost a city council campaign by a decent margin in last year's municipal election, so I doubt he'll make a big impact. With the Liberals down in the polls, this mostly poor riding is in play for the NDP.
Liberal-NDP tossup

Hammonds Plains-Lucasville
This riding is mostly Halifax exurb. The Hammonds Plains area is a exurban bedroom community consisting of middle class homes on large rural properties. Lucasville is a black loyalist village. The Liberals won this riding comfortably in 2013, but the Tories are running a star candidate, two term city councilman Matt Whitman. Whitman is popular, but he has a lot of ground to make up. Although the NDP won this riding's predecessor, they would have a much harder time winning it now, as some hardcore NDP areas were redistributed out of the riding.
Lean Liberal

Sackville-Beaverbank
This riding is mostly working class (Sackville) suburb with some wealthier rural areas (Beaverbank) mixed in and was part of the old Hammonds Plains-Upper Sackville riding. The Liberals barely won this riding last time and I expect them to lose it despite having and incumbent now.
Lean NDP

Sackville-Cobequid
Consists almost entirely of the working class suburb of Sackville, this riding has been represented by the NDP since 1993; before their break through in Nova Scotia. It has been represented by former Health minister and NDP leadership contender Dave Wilson since 2003. Wilson nearly lost his seat in an upset in 2013, but he should have no trouble retaining it this time.
Safe NDP

Timberlea-Prospect
This riding consists of two communities; Timberlea, a working class suburb, and Prospect, a poor rural area with a few large oceanfront properties. This riding is hard to project because for most of its history it was represented by ridiculously popular NDP MLA Bill Estabrooks. There was an expense scandal in Nova Scotia a few years ago, and Estabrooks made the news for claiming only $300 in expenses, mostly for office furniture he bought on Craigslist and Kijiji . Without Estabrooks, the NDP finished a distant second place last time. The Liberals should win it, but the lack of non-Estabrooks history makes me uncomfortable calling this seat 'safe'
Lean Liberal

Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank
This rapidly growing area is mostly rural exurbs. It attracts a range of classes including poorer folks in search of cheap land, middle class airport workers (the airport is just outside the riding, and upper middle class professionals in search of large properties. All three parties have held the seat in the past decade or so. The Liberals picked it up in 2013 after the NDP MLA assaulted the Liberal MLA for Dartmouth-Preston. With this riding's relative ruralness and wealth the Tories could pick it up if the Liberals falter any more.
Liberal-Tory tossup

*I mean more conservative than most of Halifax, not conservative itself.

[DC Al Fine]

DC, are you undecided because the Tories are too much to the left this time around ? I believe I remember you to be some kind of small c conservative, so maybe you're just short of a conservative option ?

Anyway, without knowing much on this election (though I think I had followed the previous one here already), I expect a Liberal majority, since it seems to be the way things are going in Canada these days.

Sort of. Nova Scotia is red Tory land, but there are two kinds of red Tories; fiscally moderate traditionalists*, and the classic 'Im fiscally conservative but socially liberal' types. I am in the former camp, Jamie Baillie has pushed the local Tories firmly into the latter, plus he's running to the fiscal left of what I think is a prudent Liberal government.

I haven't made up my mind yet, but I think I will vote Liberal. McNeil isn't pushing social liberalism like federal Liberals are, and I'm happy with his fiscal policies. There are several Tory candidates I know and like, but they aren't running in Bedford.

I agree with your prediction. I'm guessing a reduced Liberal majority.

[DC Al Fine]

Former City of Dartmouth
Halifax has a twin city thing going on like Minneapolis-St. Paul. Dartmouth is mostly suburb but it has its own downtown and major employers. It is a crucial battleground in 2017 with many marginal Liberal seats. The Liberal majority, and NDP resurgence could both be made or broken here.

Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage
This riding has a small portion of Cole Harbour (blue collar suburb), but it's mostly focused on Easter Passage, a village just outside of Halifax. Eastern Passage is very blue collar and many poorer workers move there for the cheap housing. The main employer is a heavily unionized oil refinery. Unsurprisingly the NDP do very well here. The Liberals barely one the seat in 2013, and I expect the NDP to pick it up even though the polls haven't moved much.
Lean NDP

Cole Harbour-Portland Valley
The home of hockey great Sidney Crosby, Premier Darrell Dexter represented this seat. It is blue collar suburbia, but the upper middle class Portland Valley area was moved onto this riding during the redistribution, causing him to lose the seat. Between the anti-NDP Portland Valley and the lack of a leader in the seat, this seat is more friendly to the Liberals than the 2013 result would indicate.
Liberal-NDP tossup

Dartmouth East
Dartmouth is known as a city of lakes, and most of the lakes are in Dartmouth East. Darmouth East is largely well to do homeowners, although there is a poor neighbourhood at the southern end of the riding. Andrew Younger, a Liberal won a massive win here, but was kicked out of caucus due to a sex scandal. This riding was set to be one of the more interesting races, with Younger running a serious independent candidacy (he was also city councilor for the area), but he has pulled his name from the ballot. Now it's much more boring race. Expect the Liberals to win this well off riding.
Lean Liberal

Dartmouth North
One of the most impoverished neighbourhoods in the city, Dartmouth North almost all of Dartmouth's public housing as well as the closest thing Halifax has to a red light district. It also contains a small white collar neighbourhood. The Liberals picked up the seat comfortably due to the NDP MLA trevo Zinck being embroiled in an expense scandal. The Liberal MLA Joanne Bernard is the Community Services (read welfare and whatnot) Minister and is on the left of the party, making her a good fit for the riding. This one could go either way.
Liberal-NDP tossup

Dartmouth South
This riding is a mix of downtown Dartmouth, working class and middle class suburbia. The Liberals won it in 2013, before losing it in a byelection after the MLA died of an aneurysm. The NDP MLA, Marian Mancini (wife of former Sydney-Victoria MP Peter Mancini), is not running again due to the strain the job put on her family, so the NDP have no incumbency bonus.
Liberal-NDP tossup

Eastern Shore
Eastern Shore is the best bellwether in the province, last voting against the government in 1967. It is a mix of rural fishing villages, and Halifax exurb. Watch this one on election night ot see where the province is going. I expect it to retain its bellwether status
Lean Liberal

Preston-Dartmouth
Preston-Dartmouth, used to be a minority seat, specially undersized to encourage minority representation (there were also 3 Acadian ridings). When the NDP government eliminated the law behind these seats, the riding was expanded. It consists of Preston, a black loyalist village, and some exurban areas outside Dartmouth.  Outside of Preston, the voters are relatively swingy in federal elections but a popular Liberal MLA (and former councillor) Keith Colwell has kept a firm grip on the seat.
Safe Liberal

[DC Al Fine]

Today's CRA poll:

Liberal: 42%
Tory: 28%
NDP: 26%

On mobile so no link or pretty colours.

I love the Halifax Chronicle Herald's headlines for these polls. There's been no movement outside the margin of error for the past week or so and every day they talk about 'surging' and 'free fall'.

[DC Al Fine]

That's the problem for the NDP. Large swathes of Halifax and parts of industrial Cape Breton are total dead zones for the Tories. The NDP's main competition in competitive seats is the Liberals. This was helpful for them in the 2000's but they're getting screwed by it now.

[DC Al Fine]

And my wife has just told me it's time to take her to the hospital to have the baby. Have fun watching the debate guys.

[DC Al Fine]

A brand new poll by Forum Research suggests it's very close:

Liberals 37%
PCs 35%
NDP 25%

And they have Halifax a three way dead heat!

Forum polls are junk polls.

They can't even get the names of the cross tab regions right. They included the Annapolis Valley as part of 'South Shore', which is like calling Ottawa part of Northern Ontario, and they also called the rural northern mainland of the province 'North End' which is a neighborhood in Halifax.

Baby is a healthy little girl. No Tory name I'm afraid.

[DC Al Fine]

Earl & DL:

Agreed. I get that Nova Scotia is really small and that it would be ridiculous to poll every tiny region, but the way Forum went about it was just so half assed. Even posting a Cape Breton crosstab is a bit much. The entire island is only marginally bigger than a suburban GTA riding.

[DC Al Fine]

Rolling CRA poll shows things stabilizing.

Liberal: 42%
Tory: 31%
NDP: 24%

I've been running the polls through a couple models, and I have a couple of thoughts

1) The Tories are pretty stable. They'll likely pick up a few rural seats and maybe one or two of Halifax's outer suburbs, but you don't start seeing big changes in their seat count until they start tying the Liberals.

2) The NDP is the opposite. A swing of a few points could mean the difference between very good and very bad. They have very few rural incumbents, and a lot of their Halifax seats were close. By the same token, if McNeil falters, they could go from 2-3 seats in Halifax to a dozen very quickly.

3) I think a uniform or proportionate swing model may not do a good job of representing Tory health in Halifax. My models have the Tories getting solid results in total dead zones for them (e.g Cole Harbour, Dartmouth North). They didn't do that well in those seats in 2003 and 2006 when they had similar results in Halifax. The swing to the Tories might disproportionately be in upper income neighbourhoods of the city (e.g. Clayton Park West, Bedford, Halifax Citadel), which might mean an extra seat or two for them in Halifax.

Thoughts?

[DC Al Fine]

That's a 4 point drop in one night for the NDP! What's going on? Perhaps one good night of polling being knocked off and replaced by a lousy long weekend Saturday sample?

Last night of polling was Friday, so perhaps. I can't imagine may people picking up the Friday of a long weekend.

[DC Al Fine]

North Shore

Antigonish
Centred around the university town of Antigonish, this riding has one of the highest concentrations of Catholics in the country. The riding has been represented by guys with funny names for a long time including Hyland, Tando, & Moe. Although the riding is a traditional Liberal seat, the Tories and NDP have held it in recent years. Given the recent relative Tory strength in the area, this is a potential pickup for the Tories.
Liberal-Tory tossup

Guysborough-Eastern Shore-Tracadie
The largest and least dense riding in the province, Guysborough-Eastern Shore-Tracadie has been a perfect bellwether since it's creation in 1988. Economically, the riding is poor, rural and focused on resource industries. The riding has become slightly less NDP friendly as parts of Antigonish County were added to it in the last redistribution.
Lean Liberal

Pictou Centre
Centred on the small towns of New Glasgow and Stellarton, Pictou Centre is an urban riding in a largely rural area. It is dominated by Empire Company, which owns several different grocery chains across Canada, Big 8 Bottling and operates its own REIT. Because of this, the area is fairly well off. Premier Jon Hamm held this seat in the 1990's and early 2000's. Historically Tory, the NDP managed to scrape out a win here in 2009, but lost it in 2013.  Incumbent MLA Patt Dunn won comfortably in 2013, and is running again.
Safe Tory

Pictou East
An almost entirely rural riding, the lobster industry dominates Pictou East. It was a mostly Tory seat in the past, but the NDP managed a close win in 2006 followed by a massive win (they went from 36% to 63%) in 2009. The riding then swung back to its ancestral roots in 2013. The Liberals are a nonfactor in Pictou County. Incumbent MLA Tim Houston is a possible leadership contender and faces no serious challengers.
Safe Tory

Pictou West
A largely rural farming riding, Scotsburn Dairy is the largest employer here. An historically Tory riding, it has drifted NDP over the years. The Tories barely won it in 1999 and lost it again in 2003, 2006 and 2009. The seat was a surprised pickup for the Tories in 2013 as popular MLA Charlie Parker went down in defeat. Although I expect the Tories to retain the seat, it has a pretty good NDP history for rural Atlantic Canada, so I can't quite call it safe. As noted above, the Liberals won't be a factor here. 
Lean Tory

[DC Al Fine]

FFS, c'mon DC, get your head in the game

[DC Al Fine]

Cape Breton AKA God's Country
Cape Breton Island is the second largest region in Nova Scotia after Halifax. The entire island is poor. Cape Breton County, in the north eastern corner of the island is a decaying rust belt area, while the other three counties, Inverness, Richmond and Victoria are typical of rural poverty, but they are some of the most beautiful parts of the world in my (biased) opinion. The entire island has a peculiar accent which I can only describe Newfoundland-lite. Politics is extremely local here, even more so than the rest of Nova Scotia.

Cape Breton Centre
Cape Breton Centre is coal country. The town of New Waterford dominates this riding. The mines have closed, and the riding is impoverished, and the few non-poors seem to be unionized government workers. The NDP barely held on here in 2013 before losing the seat in a byelection. Normally I'd expect the new Liberal MLA to retain the seat, but the Liberals have faltered somewhat, and this is one of the very few parts of Atlantic Canada with a tribal NDP vote.
Lean NDP

Cape Breton-Richmond
Consists of the mostly Acadian Richmond county and southern Cape Breton County, this riding has mostly primary industries except for Point Tupper, which is centred around power generation for Nova Scotia Power. The riding tends to be culturally divided with Anglos voting Tory and Acadians voting Liberal. Michel Samson is the popular Liberal MLA and should hold the seat.
Safe Liberal

Glace Bay
Consists entirely of the Town of Glace Bay. Another depressed mining community, it has a fairly devout Catholic population and has tended to vote Liberal although the NDP won it several times. Former NDP leader Jeremy Akerman held the seat throughout the 1970's. Geooff MacLellan, a Liberal won over 80% of the vote in 2013 and is running again. 'Nuff said
Safe Liberal

Inverness
This rural riding has the Cape Breton Highlands and the Cabot Trail. It's seriously beautiful in the summer and tourism is a huge employer here. Inverness has an Acadian population around Cheticamp and what's left of Nova Scotia's Gaelic community. Allan MacMaster was in danger here in 2013, but now that he's won two elections and had time to put down roots, I think he should be pretty safe.
Safe Tory

Northside-Westmount
An urban riding centred around the Towns of North Sydney and Sydney Mines. There are some depressed mining areas but most of Cape Breton's moneyed folks live here as well. Current Sydney mayor Cecil Clarke represented this seat for the Tories for a long time, and the current MLA held off a strong Liberal challenge
Lean Tory

Sydney-Whitney Pier
The core of industrial Cape Breton, Sydney-Whitney Pier is a former steel town. Whitney Pier is is quite multi-cultural hosting a variety of Eastern Europeans. Similar to Cape Breton Centre, the NDP barely held on to this seat in 2013, before losing it in a by-election. Although it has some tribal NDP areas, it is somewhat more Liberal leaning than Cape Breton Centre, due to it also hosting some of the better off parts of industrial Cape Breton. I have no idea how this one will end.
Liberal-NDP tossup.

Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg
Consists of the middle class suburb of Sydney River with the heavily touristy areas of the Mira and Lousibourg. Louisbourg is an interesting historical site built when the French still owned Nova Scotia. The Tories aren't well liked here, but local Tory MLA Alfie MacLeod sure is.
Lean Tory

Victoria-The Lakes
A rural area with settlements centred around the Bras d'Or lakes. It has a large Mikmaq population and some Acadians as well. The economy is based around tourism with some mining. This race features a rematch between incumbent Liberal Pam Eyking, wife of Sydney-Victoria MP Mark Eyking, and former Tory MLA Keith Bain. The Eykings have deep roots in the community but, but Bain was also popular as MLA and the Tories are polling above their 2013 result
Liberal-Tory tossup

[DC Al Fine]

The latest numbers from CRA are interesting:

Since this poll is a 5-day roll, it was a bit odd for the NDP to drop from 28% to 24% yesterday - especially when there was no corresponding change on "best premier"...but yesterday's poll covered May 15-19 which suggests that May 14 that was dropped was likely a very good day for the NDP and that May 19 was a very bad day...today's poll is from field work conducted May 16-20 and it has the Liberals down 2 points back to 40% and the PCs and NDP each picking up a point to 32% and 25% respectively.

What I find interesting is what's happening in the "best premier" numbers which can be a leading indicator for vote intention and which are now based on a field period that is about half before and half after the leader's debate on Thursday night. Keep in mind that all party leaders are lower on this measure than their parties are on vote intention because CRA doesn't allocate "undecided" the way they do with the vote question. MacNeil has drifted down to 30%, Burrill has continued his upwards climb to 23% (he was 17% as recently as a week ago) and Baillie is at a relatively low of 21%.

This suggests to me that Gary Burrill of the NDP did very well for himself in the leaders debate and that Baillie of the PCs is drifting down.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/nsvotes/1466845-daily-poll-may-22-burrill-pulls-ahead-of-baillie-in-personal-popularity-both-still-b

Possibly, but to looking at the graph, it just looks like bouncing around the margin of error for the past couple of weeks to my eyes.

[DC Al Fine]

Green leader Thomas Trappenberg is doing a targeted campaign, attempting to replicate BC, NB and PEI Green success.

I drive through Trappenberg's target riding (Clayton Park West) on my way to work every day. They are certainly targeting the seat. Their sign game is the best I've ever seen out of a Green campaign. On the other hand, I seriously doubt the Greens will win a seat because:

a) The party is poorly organized. They are running nowhere near a full slate after only putting out 15 candidates or so in 2013. I doubt they can pull the resources necessary for a targeted approach.

b) Clayton Park West isn't a good choice for a Green target. Halifax doesn't really have any ideal Green type seats, but Clayton Park West isn't that great a choice even among the slim pickings Halifax has to offer. It's too rich, has too many immigrants, and has very few bobos. I get that the seat is open, and that some of the seats with better demographics (e.g. Halifax Needham, Chebucto, or Citadel) have incumbent MLA's, but I'm still surprised they didn't pick Dartmouth South. It has no incumbent, and much of the riding is considered hipster central.

[DC Al Fine]

Possibly, but to looking at the graph, it just looks like bouncing around the margin of error for the past couple of weeks to my eyes.

You can say that for the party support numbers, but on "best Premier" chart, Burrill has been on a pretty clear upwards trajectory

Is that some sort of leading indicator?

Green leader Thomas Trappenberg is doing a targeted campaign, attempting to replicate BC, NB and PEI Green success.

I drive through Trappenberg's target riding (Clayton Park West) on my way to work every day. They are certainly targeting the seat. Their sign game is the best I've ever seen out of a Green campaign. On the other hand, I seriously doubt the Greens will win a seat because:

a) The party is poorly organized. They are running nowhere near a full slate after only putting out 15 candidates or so in 2013. I doubt they can pull the resources necessary for a targeted approach.

b) Clayton Park West isn't a good choice for a Green target. Halifax doesn't really have any ideal Green type seats, but Clayton Park West isn't that great a choice even among the slim pickings Halifax has to offer. It's too rich, has too many immigrants, and has very few bobos. I get that the seat is open, and that some of the seats with better demographics (e.g. Halifax Needham, Chebucto, or Citadel) have incumbent MLA's, but I'm still surprised they didn't pick Dartmouth South. It has no incumbent, and much of the riding is considered hipster central.

Judging by the federal results, the best areas for the Greens (albeit not by much) do appear to be in the Clayton Park area.

You're right. I hadn't thought of that.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm going to make a prediction thread in a couple of days. I won't bother taking predictions for popular vote and seat winners since those are foregone conclusions. Any suggestions for ridings to predict/you find interesting?

[DC Al Fine]

Daily CRA poll stable

Liberal: 40%
Tory: 31%
NDP: 25%

[DC Al Fine]

Very little change today

Liberal: 40%
Tory: 32%
NDP: 25%

[DC Al Fine]

JS Can you guys stop fighting on every thread/post you come across? This is Nova Scotia not British Columbia

[DC Al Fine]

To add to what Hatman and lilTommy said, here is a Nova Scotia language map by municipality. Red is Anglophone, Blue is Francophone, orange is Anglophone with a significant Francophone minority.


Up until the 2013, the province had four "special seats" which were gerrymanders designed to elect minority candidates; three for Acadian Francophones and one for blacks. The seats were always quite undersized, so the NDP eliminated them in the most recent boundary commission. This was widely seen as an opportunistic move by the NDP as the seats were represented by three Liberals and a Tory.

The Nova Scotia Supreme Court recently struck down our current boundaries. The McNeil government is appealing it, which is strange given that his party stands to benefit the most. Either way, the next election might be contested with "special seats" again.

As LilTommy noted, Acadian areas vote heavily Liberal (50-75%). The one exception to this is Argyle-Barrington, which has gone Tory in 8/10 elections and whose Acadians vote more Tory than its Anglos. The black seat, Preston also votes Liberal, because the black community there was so outrageously undersized that a white exurban had to be tacked onto the seat to make it viable. The whites outvote the NDP leaning blacks.

[DC Al Fine]

Judging by the poll by poll results, Blacks in Preston don't appear to vote NDP. Looks like they've voted Liberal the last couple of elections, though there are NDP pockets in the riding.

Yes and no.

You're right that Preston is not nearly as pro-NDP as I said it is, but you're also vastly overestimating the size of Preston. Take a look at the 2013 poll by poll map for Preston on 506's website Do you see the three NDP polls that voted 70%+ NDP? That's North Preston. There's another three or four polls to the south that voted the same as the riding at large. That's East Preston. Everything to the east and west of that is white exurbs.

That's why Preston was always the biggest joke of the special seats and had such a hard time electing black MLA's. Nova Scotia Acadians aren't nearly as spread out as blacks are, and the main majority black area is pretty small.

[DC Al Fine]

Judging by the poll by poll results, Blacks in Preston don't appear to vote NDP. Looks like they've voted Liberal the last couple of elections, though there are NDP pockets in the riding.

Yes and no.

You're right that Preston is not nearly as pro-NDP as I said it is, but you're also vastly overestimating the size of Preston. Take a look at the 2013 poll by poll map for Preston on 506's website Do you see the three NDP polls that voted 70%+ NDP? That's North Preston. There's another three or four polls to the south that voted the same as the riding at large. That's East Preston. Everything to the east and west of that is white exurbs.

That's why Preston was always the biggest joke of the special seats and had such a hard time electing black MLA's. Nova Scotia Acadians aren't nearly as spread out as blacks are, and the main majority black area is pretty small.

Right. I find the area fascinating... what's the difference between North and East Preston? They seem to vote differently. In 2009 it appears North Preston voted Tory? Weird. And the NDP candidate was in single digits. One of the few areas in the province that swung NDP, and by a huge amount it seems. I guess they are a voting bloc that votes more for the candidate than party.

Tough question. North Preston has a reputation for being a bit poorer than East Preston and it has a gang problem, but I don't think it's enough to change voting habits that much. The Tory vote is much easier to answer. In 2006 and 2009 we ran Dwayne Provo, a former pro football player originally from North Preston. They definitely vote based on candidate out there.

That's a good rule of thumb for all Atlantic Canadian politics actually. Politics are extremely local. I just looked it up, and Nova Scotia provincial ridings are about 1/3 the population of an Ottawa City Council district, so its pretty easy for a local notable to make a big impact.

[DC Al Fine]

Today's poll has the NDP down a bit

Liberal: 40%
Tory: 32%
NDP: 23%

[DC Al Fine]

Mainstreet has a new poll out

Nova Scotia
Liberal: 37%
Tory: 34%
NDP: 25%

Halifax CMA
Liberal: 40%
Tory: 28%
NDP: 26%

Cape Breton CMA
Liberal: 43%
NDP: 28%
Tory: 24%

Rest of NS
Tory: 42%
Liberal: 33%
NDP: 23%

I'm inclined to trust CRA more than Mainstreet (i.e. there's no way the Greens are going to get 5% in Cape Breton), but this could make things interesting if its true.