Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Quebec provincial byelections [Dec 5])

[Hatman 🍁]

The Toronto Star calls it for Cho, HUGE!

[trebor204]

and so has CBC

[toaster]

Wow.  That is a huge win.  If this trend continues up to the next provincial election, it's going to look more and more like a majority for the PCs next time around

[Hatman 🍁]

This is pretty big. Remember that the Tories couldn't even win this seat with Mike Harris or Stephen Harper. It hasn't voted Tory since the 1980s, when the riding was presumably mostly White.

[trebor204]

Final Results:

Cho, Raymond PC Party of Ontario 9,693 38.58 %
Thiru, Piragal Ontario Liberal Party  7,264 28.91 % 
Shan, Neethan Ontario NDP/NPD 6,883 27.40 % 
Yu, Queenie INDEPENDENT 582 2.32 % 
De Silva, Priyan Green Party of Ontario 217 0.86 % 
Small, Allen Libertarian 146 0.58 % 
Znoneofthe, Above None of the Above Party 135 0.54 % 
Simmons, Wayne Freedom Party of Ontario 76 0.30 % 
McLean, Dwight The People 56 0.22 % 
Turmel, John Paupers 37 0.15 % 
Krosinska, Ania Trillium Party TPO 36 0.14 % 
 
Percentage of polls reporting: 100.00 % 
Voter turnout: 28.14 % 
Registered Electors on List: 89,279 
Results Last Updated Date: 09/01/16 
Results Last Updated Time: 11:25 pm

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Final Results
PC Raymond Cho 9693 38.58%
Liberal Piragal Thiru 7264 28.91%
NDP Neethan Shan 6883 27.40%

[DL]

Wow.  That is a huge win.  If this trend continues up to the next provincial election, it's going to look more and more like a majority for the PCs next time around

Except remember how the Ontario NDP had some smashing byelections wins in the lead up to the 2014 election and they turned out to be totally non predictive of what would happen in a general election

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow.  That is a huge win.  If this trend continues up to the next provincial election, it's going to look more and more like a majority for the PCs next time around

Except remember how the Ontario NDP had some smashing byelections wins in the lead up to the 2014 election and they turned out to be totally non predictive of what would happen in a general election

They did hold on to all of their wins though, which was impressive. More than what could be said about the Tories.

[DL]

By elections are often very poor predictors of the results of next general election, but they are still important in the short term. This result will cause a lot of anxiety in Liberal ranks as it will prove that the dismal polling numbers are for real and that the Wynne government really is extremely unpopular. There could start to be dissension in caucus and pressure to reverse course in some unpopular policies.

For the PCs this will be a huge morale boost that will solidly Brown's leadership and allow him to quickly turn the page on the whole sex education fiasco. This will also make it easier for the PCs to attract good candidates etc...

For the NDP it probably means almost nothing. While their vote share dropped a bit compared to 2014, they did better than predicted and came remarkably close to driving the Liberals into third place. An NDP win would have been a huge morale boost. A drop into the teens like the Mainstreet poll predicted would have been demoralizing and caused more questioning of Horwath's leadership. This 27.4% result is so-so enough that it's neither here nor there.

[DC Al Fine]

This is pretty big. Remember that the Tories couldn't even win this seat with Mike Harris or Stephen Harper. It hasn't voted Tory since the 1980s, when the riding was presumably mostly White.

True, although we should note that the Tories are doing much, much better among Chinese-Canadians and worse among well off whites than they were in the Harris era.

[lilTommy]

This is pretty big. Remember that the Tories couldn't even win this seat with Mike Harris or Stephen Harper. It hasn't voted Tory since the 1980s, when the riding was presumably mostly White.

True, although we should note that the Tories are doing much, much better among Chinese-Canadians and worse among well off whites than they were in the Harris era.

A big part of this win is Cho; and I believe as was mentioned the NDP and Liberals look to have split the South Asian vote. BUT this is a by-election, remember Etobicoke-Lakeshore, this is a very similar result; PC wins with very well known Conservative city councillor (Dog Holyday) but they lose at the General election.
PC +11%, NDP -4%, Liberal -10% - Looks like about a 30% turnout (25K votes cast)

[adma]

A big part of this win is Cho; and I believe as was mentioned the NDP and Liberals look to have split the South Asian vote. BUT this is a by-election, remember Etobicoke-Lakeshore, this is a very similar result; PC wins with very well known Conservative city councillor (Dog Holyday) but they lose at the General election.

Though because of Cho's age, there's no guarantee that he'll be reoffering in the next GE, i.e. this byelection possibly being more of a "demonstration gesture" than anything.  It may all depend on who the PCs have to offer post-Cho that'll determine how the paradigm is shifting.  (And yes, this *is* a case where demographic "diversity" actually helps rather than hinders the Tories these days.)

[Hatman 🍁]

This is pretty big. Remember that the Tories couldn't even win this seat with Mike Harris or Stephen Harper. It hasn't voted Tory since the 1980s, when the riding was presumably mostly White.

True, although we should note that the Tories are doing much, much better among Chinese-Canadians and worse among well off whites than they were in the Harris era.

Of course, we'll never know how Whites voted yesterday, considering how few of them still live in the riding. It is pretty obvious that Cho won the Chinese vote and the South Asian vote was split (It probably went narrowly NDP though; I'd assume that Blacks and Filipinos probably went Liberal)

... on a side note, is this the only riding in Canada where Black people outnumber White people?

[RogueBeaver]

Here's Le Droit and Radio-Canada on Ottawa-Vanier.

[DL]

This is pretty big. Remember that the Tories couldn't even win this seat with Mike Harris or Stephen Harper. It hasn't voted Tory since the 1980s, when the riding was presumably mostly White.

True, although we should note that the Tories are doing much, much better among Chinese-Canadians and worse among well off whites than they were in the Harris era.

Also, the "Harris era" was 20 years ago and ridings like this have undergone MASSIVE demographic change. It is simply not the same riding that it was back then.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's Le Droit and Radio-Canada on Ottawa-Vanier.

It's almost as if there are no other parties running!

The NDP should make a play at the provincial seat. Not saying they can win, but considering how unpopular the OLP is.. one caveat is that no one cares about provincial politics in Ottawa, so the Liberals are probably going to be more popular due to the lack of outrage due to apathy.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Scary. That's all the insight I can offer. Human weather vane Patrick Brown is a much better politician than Kathleen Wynne.

[lilTommy]

Here's Le Droit and Radio-Canada on Ottawa-Vanier.

It's almost as if there are no other parties running!

The NDP should make a play at the provincial seat. Not saying they can win, but considering how unpopular the OLP is.. one caveat is that no one cares about provincial politics in Ottawa, so the Liberals are probably going to be more popular due to the lack of outrage due to apathy.

Looks like the ONDP was the first to nominate a candidate, Claude Bisson former RCMP officer... and if it is not clear, he is the brother of Gilles Bisson NDP MPP for Timmins-James Bay

[Hatman 🍁]

Scary. That's all the insight I can offer. Human weather vane Patrick Brown is a much better politician than Kathleen Wynne.

Worked for Michael Ignatieff. Oh, wait...

[RogueBeaver]

In print La Presse, confirmation that the federal by-elections won't be called till Kenney resigns next month.

[RogueBeaver]

UO law dean Nathalie DesRosiers is seeking the OLP nom in Ottawa-Vanier.

[King of Kensington]

It'll be interesting to compare the federal and provincial vote share for the Liberals in Vanier.

[Hatman 🍁]

It'll be interesting to compare the federal and provincial vote share for the Liberals in Vanier.

There'll be a YUGE NDP/Liberal swing, that's for sure.  Well, maybe not that big. Depends if the NDP bothers to try or not.

[RogueBeaver]

Kenney's resigning next Friday.

[RogueBeaver]

Medicine Hat called for Oct. 24.