CO 2014

[sg0508]

Democrats will be favored.  The GOP is so, so weak in CO these days.

[sg0508]

The Republicans are going to need a moderate candidate to win there now.  CO is yet another state that the party should look at as an example when you ignore the changing demographics and alienate moderates and minorities.

The democrats have become a well-oiled machine there, pumping out excellent candidates across the board and they've even gotten the more liberal Udall to the Senate, which wasn't that surprising.

[sg0508]

I expect Jane Norton to beat Udall in 2014.

The CO GOP is similar to the Kansas GP.  A good chunk is too conservative for the state and the rest is moderate.  There's constant infighting and it often lets democrats have the upperhand. 

The CO democratic party is a well-oiled machine.  They have a terrific warchest of candidates and they push the right buttons that sell around the DEMOGRAPHICS of the state, something the GOP continues to ignore there.  They act as if this is 1990 CO and it's not (similar to the GOP in VA). 

[sg0508]

If we've learned anything since 2006 in CO, bet against the GOP.  The party is stuck way too far to the right for the state's current politics and moving demographics.  CO is a good microcosm of the GOP's national problems

[sg0508]

When's the last time CO actually threw an incumbent out? Even Wayne Allard survived there (partly due to the GOP strength in 2002).

Even the mediocre Hickenlooper survives.  I'm betting by 8 points or so.  I still think the demographics change in CO strongly favors him.

[sg0508]

My two assumptions with CO as of now:

1) The state GOP is completely inept and in ruins internally
2) Until the GOP can win a major statewide race there, I'm assuming they'll keep losing.

Hickenlooper will win, possibly by 10 points when all is said and done.