Greek election - January 25th 2015

[politicus]

            
Groundbreaking Orthodox Solidarity Front (ROMA)               

LOL

Lefko, which means blank is a semi-joke party.               

So is ANEL, so that alliance makes sense.

[justfollowingtheelections]

            
Groundbreaking Orthodox Solidarity Front (ROMA)               

LOL

Yeah I couldn't find any information on some of those small parties.  I googled their leader's name and I found a story about a gangster and nightclub bouncer who was arrested in August for offering "protection" to Roma street market workers.  I don't know if it's the same person of course (it probably is).

[politicus]

            
Groundbreaking Orthodox Solidarity Front (ROMA)               

LOL

Yeah I couldn't find any information on some of those small parties.  I googled their leader's name and I found a story about a gangster and nightclub bouncer who was arrested in August for offering "protection" to Roma street market workers.  I don't know if it's the same person of course (it probably is).

Well, the acronym is interesting..

[rob in cal]

Has immigration played much of a role in this election.  I read that Samaras recently brought up the issue.  What is Syriza's stance?  Wondering if this is one issue where Syriza and the "establishment"  which is  often more pro-immigration than typical citizens in many countries, might be on the same side.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The poll ban is basically a non-issue from what I've heard, the obvious loophole of just publishing them in the Cyprus media is what occurs.

[politicus]

The poll ban is basically a non-issue from what I've heard, the obvious loophole of just publishing them in the Cyprus media is what occurs.

Well, maybe. As posted on the previous page they have moved it to the start of the week-end with the election, so the polls we get now are still legal.

It is a Sunday election, so in reality it will have very little effect.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Has immigration played much of a role in this election.  I read that Samaras recently brought up the issue.  What is Syriza's stance?  Wondering if this is one issue where Syriza and the "establishment"  which is  often more pro-immigration than typical citizens in many countries, might be on the same side.

Probably not more than usual.  There are a lot of people who would never vote for a left-wing or center-left party because they feel they're too friendly or at least too tolerant of Muslims, but that has always been the case or at least since the number of Muslim immigrants in Greece became significant.

A bigger question IMO is what Golden Dawn voters will do.  One possibility is that they will keep voting for Golden Dawn, a second one that they will not vote at all and a third one that they will turn to ND because they don't want SYRIZA to win the election.  That's the poll crosstab I am most interested in right now.

[Velasco]

Spain's PM Mariano Rajoy made a surprise trip to Athens to support Samaras.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/14/inenglish/1421231196_859845.html

Pablo Iglesias (Podemos) and Cayo Lara (IU) will attend a Tsipras rally on 22, at the end of the campaign.

[politicus]

Has immigration played much of a role in this election.  I read that Samaras recently brought up the issue.  What is Syriza's stance?  Wondering if this is one issue where Syriza and the "establishment"  which is  often more pro-immigration than typical citizens in many countries, might be on the same side.

Probably not more than usual.  There are a lot of people who would never vote for a left-wing or center-left party because they feel they're too friendly or at least too tolerant of Muslims, but that has always been the case or at least since the number of Muslim immigrants in Greece became significant.

A bigger question IMO is what Golden Dawn voters will do.  One possibility is that they will keep voting for Golden Dawn, a second one that they will not vote at all and a third one that they will turn to ND because they don't want SYRIZA to win the election.  That's the poll crosstab I am most interested in right now.

Golden Dawn seems stable at the level they are on now. They haven't moved that much lately and are likely down to their core voters.

Samaras are scaremongering about Muslims and terror and there has been a lot of talk about how ND is trying to pass Syriza by going to the right and capturing "hard right" voters (ANEL & LAOS supporters and ex Golden Dawn).  I posted a link to a story about that a while back.
There is a segment of floating right wingers that voted Golden Dawn and ANEL last time, but have left them and they are more interesting for ND than the rump-Golden Dawn vote.

[SNJ1985]

Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy visited Greece in order to show support for Samaras going into the election.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_14/01/2015_546200

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy visited Greece in order to show support for Samaras going into the election.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_14/01/2015_546200

SYRIZA +1!

[politicus]

New ALCO poll (published yesterday)  conducted nationwide from January 11-13.

1.5% said they would vote blank and 2.4% said they would abstain. 10.3% were undecided.

After extrapolating the percentages by discounting invalid votes and abstentions they get:

SYRIZA 32.4%
ND 28.9%
The River 5.3%,
Golden Dawn 5.2%
KKE 4.2%
PASOK 3.7%
----------------
Independent Greeks 2.7%
Movement of Democratic Socialists 2.5%
Other parties 4.3%
Undecideds 10.6%.

So six parties in and ANEL + MDS very close. Not a good poll for KKE.
 

[Philip Weisler]

I would like to emphasize that the main cleavage in Greek politics since the crisis is not right-left in the traditional (or American) sense.  

There is no way going to be a ND + XA + ANEL alliance on the nominally right nor a Syriza, Pasok, Potami (+KKE) on the ''left''.

First, XA is a Nazi party no-one will form any coalition with.

Second, PASOK may still be nominally leftist but the main thing is - pro-bailout, pro-eurozone and therefore: pro-austerity. The same goes for POTAMI, even if it is a relatively untainted newcomer.

ANEL is an anti-austerity breakaway from ND that has numerous times considered an alliance with the radically leftist SYRIZA.

Short: the main thing is parties in favour of continuing with pro-bailout policies: PASOK, ND, Kinima (should they pass the 3% barrier), probably Potami and provided some minor concessions are made, Dimar, too (but surely fails the barrier).  

Anti-bailout includes SYRIZA and KKE on the hard left and ANEL, LAOS (quite certain to fail to cross the barrier, listed just FYI) and XA on the populist right - to far right.

Antibailout parties in sum will get the parliamentary majority (unless ND surpasses SYRIZA, which is increasingly unlikely). The result will likely be a Weimar style mess (feuding antisystem parties have a majority among themselves). If ANEL passes the barrier, it can form some kind of a coalition with SYRIZA. KKE will surely get some seats, but I think it officially excludes any coalitions with anyone, even SYRIZA (correct me if wrong).

KKE do loathe Syriza, but I wonder if they will offer supply and confidence votes.

The other worry, of course, is that a President still needs to be picked with a supermajority. Will the left have enough votes to support a Syriza nominee?

The President has very little power. Nominating a centrist or a non-political figure should be unproblematic if Syriza wins.

DIMAR leader Fotis Kouvelis was mentioned as a possible compromise candidate before the recent election and might be a good compromise candidate again. Even if Syriza and DIMAR could not agree on a joint list they seem to be on good terms now.

Polls indicate ND + XA + ANEL (if they get in) would get around 100. Leaving 200 centre-left + left. Syriza gets around 142-145, Potami 22-25, Pasok 12+, KKE 16-18.

Syriza, Pasok and Potami would likely be able to elect a president and there is no reason to think KKE would block a Syriza nominated candidate.

A Syriza win with min. 120 seats to ND/XA, or even ND/XA/ANEL, is a very unlikely scenario.

[politicus]

Welcome to the forum!

It is best not to assume people around here are naive or ignorant about the issues. Many posters are quite savvy.

Overall I think your evaluation is a bit dated (2012/13-style).

I would like to emphasize that the main cleavage in Greek politics since the crisis is not right-left in the traditional (or American) sense.

Most posters around here are well aware of those things, but you are being a bit simplistic. The left-right divide does play a role in something like electing a president since Syriza needs a 60% majority from parties willing to not sabotage it, which would be left and centre-left + maybe ANEL.

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First one is obvious. Second one not. Syriza in alliance with either Potami or Pasok is the most likely, despite all the tough talk on both sides. KKE hates Syriza, but are unlikely to block a Syriza presidential nominee - which was the topic at hand.

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That is obvious and no one has said otherwise.

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That is way too simplistic. First, Syriza also wants to remain in the Eurozone. Second, those parties also share some common values. Third, some kind of compromise will have to be made in order for the country to function.

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It is also very right wing on a number of areas (immigration, law and order, role of the church, defense). Syriza and ANEL can cooperate in trolling the pro-austerity parties. They will never govern together.

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Whoever gets the bonus gets to form the government. The other parties will have to adjust to that, so this is simplistic. If ND wins the bonus the centrist parties (Potami and Pasok) will work with them. Kinima is explicitly made to break with Pasoks ND support and Papandreou would be toast if he went back to working with them. Dimar has been in coalition talks with Syriza and will not get back to working with ND. ND has been moving to the right and working with them is increasingly toxic for the centre-left.

If Syriza gets the bonus they are in the drivers seat and the centrist parties will need to negotiate.

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Everybody on this board knows that. Do not assume posters here to be ignorant of basic facts.

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- Syriza has been involved in a moderation process over the past couple of years preparing for government and the most likely result will be some kind of left/centre-left compromise.

- An ANEL-Syriza coalition is an impossibility. ANEL is not government material in any way.

- Yes, KKE excludes coalitions. The issue is if they will provide tacit support when push comes to shove. Opinions about this differ. I am sceptical, others less so.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Syriza has recently made the classic move that various other maturing protest parties (the SNP, the German and Australian Greens etc.) have made over the years: the abandonment of fruitless threats to leave military alliances like NATO and "recalibrate" foreign policy or whatever.

These protest parties grow up so fast!

Also, The Economist begrudgingly declares Syriza won't be the end of the world. Phew.

In other news: To Potami declare a Moderate Hero position on migration (shocker) and complain that other people are complaining they have no policies

[Nhoj]

Syriza has recently made the classic move that various other maturing protest parties (the SNP, the German and Australian Greens etc.) have made over the years: the abandonment of fruitless threats to leave military alliances like NATO and "recalibrate" foreign policy or whatever.

These protest parties grow up so fast!

Also, The Economist begrudgingly declares Syriza won't be the end of the world. Phew.

In other news: To Potami declare a Moderate Hero position on migration (shocker) and complain that other people are complaining they have no policies

And people wonder why KKE calls them traitors .

[Philip Weisler]

Please try not to be rude OK (''Everybody on this board knows that. Do not assume posters here to be ignorant of basic facts'').  The fact was worth of mentioning in that context, even here, not everyone is a specialist in Greek politics. To claim my post was illegitimate because I mention wellknown things is as ridiculous as to claim your own previous post mentioning obvious truths was unconstructive (''The President has very little power. Nominating a centrist or a non-political figure should be unproblematic if Syriza wins'')

There are some other points, where I have an opinion differeing from yours. I will address these later.

Welcome to the forum!

It is best not to assume people around here are naive or ignorant about the issues. Many posters are quite savvy.

Overall I think your evaluation is a bit dated (2012/13-style).

I would like to emphasize that the main cleavage in Greek politics since the crisis is not right-left in the traditional (or American) sense.

Most posters around here are well aware of those things, but you are being a bit simplistic. The left-right divide does play a role in something like electing a president since Syriza needs a 60% majority from parties willing to not sabotage it, which would be left and centre-left + maybe ANEL.

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First one is obvious. Second one not. Syriza in alliance with either Potami or Pasok is the most likely, despite all the tough talk on both sides. KKE hates Syriza, but are unlikely to block a Syriza presidential nominee - which was the topic at hand.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That is obvious and no one has said otherwise.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That is way too simplistic. First, Syriza also wants to remain in the Eurozone. Second, those parties also share some common values. Third, some kind of compromise will have to be made in order for the country to function.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It is also very right wing on a number of areas (immigration, law and order, role of the church, defense). Syriza and ANEL can cooperate in trolling the pro-austerity parties. They will never govern together.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Whoever gets the bonus gets to form the government. The other parties will have to adjust to that, so this is simplistic. If ND wins the bonus the centrist parties (Potami and Pasok) will work with them. Kinima is explicitly made to break with Pasoks ND support and Papandreou would be toast if he went back to working with them. Dimar has been in coalition talks with Syriza and will not get back to working with ND. ND has been moving to the right and working with them is increasingly toxic for the centre-left.

If Syriza gets the bonus they are in the drivers seat and the centrist parties will need to negotiate.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Everybody on this board knows that. Do not assume posters here to be ignorant of basic facts.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

- Syriza has been involved in a moderation process over the past couple of years preparing for government and the most likely result will be some kind of left/centre-left compromise.

- An ANEL-Syriza coalition is an impossibility. ANEL is not government material in any way.

- Yes, KKE excludes coalitions. The issue is if they will provide tacit support when push comes to shove. Opinions about this differ. I am sceptical, others less so.

[politicus]

ANEL deserter Rachel Makri seems to be a real asset for Syriza...

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/syriza-candidate-rachel-makri-we-will-print-100-bln-euros

On the threat that Greek banks would be cut off from ECB funding in the event that Greece ends up outside of an international bailout program she claimed that ECB’s capacity to shut off the funding to Greek banks is not possible under the ECB charter and added that if necessary the
Emergency Liquidity Assistance would be activated and "we will be able to print euros ourselves in the Bank of Greece up to 100 billion euros."

ELA is the provision of ECB funds to a Eurozone national central bank to be given to solvent banks facing temporary liquidity problems. Greek banks have used them before, but they are loans with thresholds established by the ECB and not an endless supply of free money.

ND is feasting on this claiming Syriza will "print" 100 billion euros if liquidity dries up in Greece topped with snide remarks like “why don’t they make 300 billion and erase the debt as well?"


Rachel Makri - a walking diaster

[justfollowingtheelections]

She's a good example of why SYRIZA should stay as far away from ANEL as possible.  From what I understand she was the vice president of ANEL and one of their most popular MPs until she left them.  ANTARSYA claims that she tried to join their party but they rejected her application, which makes SYRIZA look even worse IMO.

SYRIZA MEP Dim. Papadimoulis by the way on his twitter account requested that SYRIZA candidates not improvise when they don't know an issue very well.

[politicus]

She's a good example of why SYRIZA should stay as far away from ANEL as possible.  From what I understand she was the vice president of ANEL and one of their most popular MPs until she left them.  ANTARSYA claims that she tried to join their party but they rejected her application, which makes SYRIZA look even worse IMO.

SYRIZA MEP Dim. Papadimoulis by the way on his twitter account requested that SYRIZA candidates not improvise when they don't know an issue very well.

Good advice

Rachel Makri (41) is a trained engineer and was a civil servant with the Ministry of the Environment before she launched her political  career. She was ANEL deputy leader, but dunno if she still held that position when she left them.

Characterized as "outspoken". Some minor stuff like having her husband transferred as an aide to the parliament office of another ANEL MP, was at the forefront of the demonstrations against the closure of public TV station ERT and got (more?) famous when she climbed the ERT building's fence in support of the fired station employees.

Best thing is she quoted her 5 year old son on TV for saying he wanted to burn down parliament!

Official reason for her firing was that she attacked other ANEL MPs and spread rumours about party colleagues on twitter and refused to meet in front of the party ethics committee (pretty ironic that ANEL has an ethics committee) and has already been embroiled in social media rows with several MPs from various parties, but lots of skirmishes right from the start.

[Bacon King]

I've heard the comparison before that ANEL was essentially a Greek version of the Tea Party. If so, Makri is definitely sounding like their Sarah Palin

[politicus]

Please try not to be rude OK (''Everybody on this board knows that. Do not assume posters here to be ignorant of basic facts'').  The fact was worth of mentioning in that context, even here, not everyone is a specialist in Greek politics. There are some other points, where I have an opinion differing from yours. I will address these later.

I was not trying to be rude, but it was your first post on the forum and as a new poster you will be better received and get more enjoyment out of your time on Atlas if you follow certain well established norms.

You made a "let me tell you how it really is" post on the seventh page of a thread, which comes of as arrogant since it implies that all previous posts are written by ignoramuses who needs to be enlightened (+ your image of Greek politics seems dated). The general convention on the board is that you can make an opening post about basic facts if you create a thread or early in a new thread if the thread creator hasn't done it after a week or so (best to give posters a chance to return to their threads). Since people generally have a high knowledge level here it is best not to state basic facts ("Golden Dawn is a Neo-Nazi party") as if you were telling a hitherto unknown secret.

Try reading the entire thread from the start + the Greece General thread on the IG board to get a feel of the general level of knowledge and what sort of positions people have on the issues before reentering the debate. You will become a much better and more valued poster if you familiarize yourself with these things.

Also, only quote posts if you use and/or refer to the content in your argument and even then it is generally best just to quote relevant parts of a post. There is no need to quote an entire long post if you just address a post or poster on a more general level. When you quote the established practice is to place longer quotes in the start of your post. It looks weird quoting an entire post after you made your argument.

And: I meant it when I said welcome to the forum.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I've heard the comparison before that ANEL was essentially a Greek version of the Tea Party. If so, Makri is definitely sounding like their Sarah Palin

I wouldn't say that's accurate, at least not when it comes to ideology.  ANEL started as a one-man party led by Panos Kammenos a loud mouth ND MP from a very wealthy family who opposed austerity policies.  He founded the party after being expelled from ND for voting against the memoranda and was followed by a number of other ND MPs.  They tried to position themselves as a big tent, anti-austerity, patriotic party by recruiting members from both the left and the right.  One of them was former PASOK MP Giannis Dimaras who had formed this party (interestingly enough, the other leader of that party, after joining DIMAR is now running with ND).  Others such as this guy are full-fledged communists.

Another thing about them that is inaccurate is that they are xenophobic.  They are country-first types that are very vocal about foreign threats, but are not hostile towards immigrants and they have gone out of their way to distance themselves from Golden Dawn and LAOS.  This was their youth leader until recently:  (she's actually running with ND in this election).

At some point before the 2012 election they looked like they could have had the success that SYRIZA eventually had, but their leader's clownish behavior as well as their laughable conspiracy theories alienated many voters.  One of the reasons they have been losing the little support they had is because they really don't have a position on pretty much any issue.  If I had to use one word to describe them it would probably be populists.

[politicus]

I've heard the comparison before that ANEL was essentially a Greek version of the Tea Party. If so, Makri is definitely sounding like their Sarah Palin

I wouldn't say that's accurate, at least not when it comes to ideology.  ANEL started as a one-man party led by Panos Kammenos a loud mouth ND MP from a very wealthy family who opposed austerity policies.  He founded the party after being expelled from ND for voting against the memoranda and was followed by a number of other ND MPs.  They tried to position themselves as a big tent, anti-austerity, patriotic party by recruiting members from both the left and the right.  One of them was former PASOK MP Giannis Dimaras who had formed this party (interestingly enough, the other leader of that party, after joining DIMAR is now running with ND).  Others such as this guy are full-fledged communists.

Another thing about them that is inaccurate is that they are xenophobic.  They are country-first types that are very vocal about foreign threats, but are not hostile towards immigrants and they have gone out of their way to distance themselves from Golden Dawn and LAOS.  

At some point before the 2012 election they looked like they could have had the success that SYRIZA eventually had, but their leader's clownish behavior as well as their laughable conspiracy theories alienated many voters.  One of the reasons they have been losing the little support they had is because they really don't have a position on pretty much any issue.  If I had to use one word to describe them it would probably be populists.

While it is not a racist party their platform includes (or at least included not long ago - I am not sure if it is still in it) a limit for immigrants to 2.5% of the population, which given the size of the immigrant population in Greece means there had to be deportations.

[politicus]

The view of a couple of prominent Greek politologists (Takis S. Pappas and Paris Aslanidis):

"The people are constructed mainly on ethnic terms, a language familiar to the
average conservative right-wing voter, while at the same time racist oratory is avoided,
and Golden Dawn is considered a purely fascist party. Apart from the ethnic definition of
the people, ANEL stresses other traditional themes of the conservative right agenda, such
as the role of the family and Greek Orthodox religion."

"The discourse of the ANEL is typically anchored on the traditional themes of the
populist radical right. The attack by foreign forces aims at the Greek nation and Christian
Orthodox traditions, while immigrants are seen as a weapon in the hands of the New
World Order. For this reason, the program of ANEL supplies a quota for immigrants, up
to a maximum of 2.5 percent of the total population."