Greece 2012

[Landslide Lyndon]

There will be no ND-PASOK coalition government. The projections show that they will both have around 146 seats.
We are probably going to new elections in 40-50 days. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Unless we have a huge surprise, there are going to be new elections by June 17.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Unless we have a huge surprise, there are going to be new elections by June 17.

Any idea what might happen then?

Your guess is as good as mine. Let's hope that people have vented off enough and when they see that SYRIZA and the rest of the joke parties have absolutely no intention to govern, they will vote more wisely.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If there are new elections in June, the same candidates will be running, no?

Also, who are the leaders of the parties besides ND and PASOK, and what are their personalities?

Presumably yes but this time the representatives will be elected through a list system, not by the constituents marking the name of their prefered candidate.

Tsipras (SYRIZA) is an arrogant brat. Imagine Tom Cruise in Top Gun without the redeeming qualities.

Papariga (KKE) is your typical stalinist drone, even though when she speaks candidly she has shown to be a very shrewd politician with a deeply analytical mind.
 
Kamenos (ANEL) is a conservative populist who has always been a media darling because of his overblown rhetoric and flamboyant personality.

Kouvelis (DIMAR) is a low key, experienced statesman.

Mihaloliakos is a far right wing nutjob that would feel right at home at Mississippi back in the segregation days.

[Landslide Lyndon]

72.81% reporting (15002/20605 precincts)

Greens have overtaken LAOS! Good shot that they'll make it into Parliament, based on what's out. Also, ND/PASOK fall some more while SYRIZA gains. Only 3.4% gap between top two now.

ND:	111	19.71%
SYRIZA:	50	16.33%
PASOK:	42	13.55%
ANEL:	32	10.47%
KKE:	26	8.38%
XA:	21	6.88%
DIMAR:	18	6.04%
Greens:		2.86%
LAOS:		2.86%
DISY:		2.56%

They won't.

[Landslide Lyndon]

px, how does Greek seat distribution actually work?

Like, for example, I have no idea what the hell is going on in Imathias:

ND: 21%, no seats
PASOK: 16%, no seats
SYRIZA: 13%, no seats
ANEL: 12%, 1 seat
KKE: 9%, 1 seat
XA: 8%, 1 seat
DIMAR: 6%, 1 seat

That's a good question. Unfortunately I suspect that not even the ones who wrote the law know the answer.

Also thank God for Patras, the Peloponisos would be absolutely horrible without that touch of pink at the top. (Nice town to waste a touristy afternoon as well)

Peloponisos was always one of the most conservative regions but it's not like we are talking about the Deep South. Achaia was always a progressive bastion because the Papandreou clan are from there.

[Landslide Lyndon]

And ND loses another. ND/PASOK no longer works.

I told you like three hours ago but apparently I was ignored.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?

[Landslide Lyndon]

If the Ecologists managed to break 3% (although beyond unlikely at this stage, given their slow progress) how many seats would they be looking at, and who would they come from?

Guys, forget about it. I told you three hours ago that the projection shows that the Greens have no chance. Why do you keep ignoring me?

I can only speak for myself, but I'm certainly listening to you and appreciate the commentary and answers you've provided. And note that he gave a rather large caveat that greens at 3% was "beyond unlikely"; I don't think he's ignoring you

Yeah but following that logic we might as well ask the same thing about the Pirates. It's a useless conversation.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The thought that 435 thousand of my compatriots voted the Neo-Nazis is enough to give me a depression.
 

[Landslide Lyndon]

If we have elections next month then the constituencies will change based on the 2011 census.

[Landslide Lyndon]

He is just building bridges for next month's election. Tsipras never seriously intended to form a government.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Tsipras isn't a bailout opponent. He is welcoming the funds but is opposed to the austerity measures and reforms that come attached with them.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't know where you got that info from but I'm 99.9% sure Syriza in first place would still get the bonus.

Indeed. This part of the law is blatantly unconstitutional and our supreme court has already endorsed a VERY lax enforcement of the law.
Essentially a signed statement by a party's leader declaring that it's a single party and not a coalition is enough.

[Landslide Lyndon]

That poll would result in roughly:

SYRIZA: 123
ND: 55
PASOK: 36
ANEL: 30
KKE: 22
XA: 18
DIMAR: 16

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

What you are describing clearly is a coup.

No because this procedure is laid out in our constitution. It can be retroactively approved by the parliament if it's not in session at the time it happens.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If something like that happens then the first thing I'll do next day is to go to the bank and withdraw my deposits.

Actually I might do it even earlier, before the election. I'll avoid the stampede.

You should do it before. There may will be a general run on the banks within hours.

Actually I was just speaking with a friend who works in finance. He said to me that there is a non-negligible possibility that in case SYRIZA seems to be in striking distance of forming a government without the help of pro-bailout parties, the military might intervene. It won't be exactly a coup, the temporary government will invoke extreme circumstances, it will declare that the country is under siege and will suspend some articles of the constitution until the situation calms down. All this of course will happen with the tacit approval of the EU.

Imagine where we are and how we feel now that we are talking seriously about something like that.

What you are describing clearly is a coup.

No because this procedure is laid out in our constitution. It can be retroactively approved by the parliament if it's not in session at the time it happens.

Greece is not "under siege" and any attempt to apply emergency procedures designed for a war situation to prevent a certain type of government from being established is a coup.

I'm not saying it will happen but the mere fact that such a possibility is not anymore casually dismissed in a conversation shows at least that we are indeed in a situation that approaches a national emergency.
And of course if this where ever to happen there would be a provocation first, not unlike the December 2008 riots.

That's called a coup. And, probably, under the circumstances, it would be the ideal pre-text for kicking Greece out of the EU in the nastiest manner imaginable. I am pretty sure, the Germans will take the opportunity to do it.

Not if they are in the loop. Frankly, Germany has shown till now very little regard to the democratic process of the EU and its members.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Of course, just playing devil's advocate here, whatever signals of tacit approval that potentially get sent in favor of a coup-if-necessary could just be the Troika hedging their bets. If Greece's military becomes "needed" the austerity deal will be effectively unsalvageable anyway, so it'd be Germany's perfect excuse to kick Greece out of the Eurozone and wash their hands of everything.     

The problem here isn't so much austerity. The mischief and mayhem is caused mostly by interest groups with entrenched privileges which stringently oppose even the slightest reform (taxi drivers, university professors, and above all civil servants) and the leftist parties like KKE and SYRIZA whose sole purpose is to create turmoil in the name of protecting workers rights, even during good times.   

[Landslide Lyndon]

So would they keep passing the coalition forming ability down the party rank until it Communists, and then even Fascist get a shot at it? That could be some serous shenanigans.

No. Only the first three parties get the chance to explore if there is a possibility to form a coalition government. If they fail then the President will summon to the presidential mansion all the heads of the parties which have elected deputies.   

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kouvelis just said that he's not joining ND or PASOK it government.  I guess it probably was just Venizelos trying to pressure him.

He has said it so many times I've lost counting. Kouvelis isn't stupid or suicidal to carry the burden of governance while leaving the fertile opposition field to Tsipras alone.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Just to clarify things. When I say it won't be a coup I mean (besides the fact that it will be done in an ostensibly constitutional way) that the military won't actually be running things. There will be a political, pro-European government that will enact the reforms and other measures that have been stalled due to public opposition, without any input or involvement by the generals and the admirals. They will merely act to preserve law and order and prevent any kind of destructive disruptions like the ones caused by the taxi drivers last summer or the members of KKE which close the ports every now and then.

Damn! I never thought that I would actually discuss something like this in the year 2012.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Syriza's position:

"Syriza argues that Greece can abandon the bailout and European leaders will not carry out their threats to withhold funding, because they cannot risk the damage to other EU countries that would be caused by a Greek collapse. "They will be begging us to take the money," Syriza's deputy, Dimitris Stratoulis, claimed on Friday."

Really? These are the people whom the Greek voters want to bet the future of their country on?

These people are just a bunch of jokers. Today another of their prominent members told that they would force people with over 20000 euros income to loan 100 euros every month to the poors.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is it true that the Independent Greeks are making war reparations from Germany a condition of any coalition?

Yes.

[Landslide Lyndon]