The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

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Rumor from has it that the last 4 precincts from Hinds won't come in until later in the morning.

The rest of the results from Hinds county are probably not enough to swing things, but then again, I didn't really expect this election in Mississippi to be as close as it ended up.

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Weird, AOSHQDD has McDaniel up to 49.97%, and Cochran at 48.43.

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Could Thad win the runoff?

I don't think so. It seemed like Cochran had a hair of a lead coming in to this evening, yet McDaniel is consistently leading over him as the results arrive. Plus, McDaniel's voters are probably more likely to turn out and vote for him, while Cochran's supporters are probably demoralized.

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False alarm, guys. Hernandez's lead is because of a counting error in CA-21.

Great. We've got one commissioner asleep, one commissioner sitting at their desk doing nothing (Holmes county in MS), and one commissioner that can't report votes correctly.

In other words, a sloth, seat-warmer, and a possible remedial math candidate?

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No results from Holmes, perhaps something is wrong there?

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CD4 is cancelling out 2 and 3.



These aren't the exact CDs, but I "rounded" to the nearest whole county. Hinds and Madison are actually split; I gave all of Hinds to 2 and Madison to 3.

McDaniel won that CD by a higher margin than the incumbent congressman from there. If He won a decent chunk of the Taylor vote then a former Dem may be the reason the Tea Party picks up a Senate seat haha.

It's interesting that McDaniel only won 1 out of 4 congressinoal districts in Mississippi.

Is CD-4 the most conservative district, or is it being swayed because McDaniel is from there? I'm not exactly familiar with the districts down there.

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Thanks for the info Miles.

Final update of the night: AOSHQDD has McDaniel at 49.64% and Cochran at 48.8%. McDaniel has 149,144 votes, and Cochran has 146,916 votes. It seems like this race will take a while to be called, and that a runoff is the most likely outcome. We'll probably find out in the AM.

Iowa was great news for Joni Ernst. Apparently, she has strong support from her party.

Montana seems strange with the congressional district, one would think that Zinke could have done better.

California has had a busy night, as usual. There are a lot of congressional races there, and many strange results that may or may not sort themselves out over the next few hours.

With that, I'm going to sleep.

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CA-31 is 100% reporting. I'm sure there are a number of uncounted absentees, but it looks like Democrat Aguilar narrowly wins 2nd place in CA-31, avoiding a repeat of 2012. You can see all the close contests in California here.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/close-contests/

Well, Aguilar will win if everything stays the same, but he only leads Gooch by 390 votes.

For the second slot, Politico has CA-31 as too close to call between Aguilar and Gooch. I'm inclined to agree with this. For one, who knows how the absentees voted, and how many there were? It's plausible that there could be way more than 390 absentee ballots. I'm not sure if this district has that many military servicemembers who voted absentee, but if they do, then Gooch could make it to second place, since this demographic is very Republican.

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Re MS: anyone think absentees/contested will change the outcome?

There only seems like a 10% chance of the absentees changing the outcome. The absentees would have to swing heavily in favor of one candidate, in contrast to the near tie that we saw with regular voters.

It's possible that contested ballots could change things, considering how close everything is, but it seems unclear how likely that would be.

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R+3 CA-25 just became safe R thanks to the idiotic top two system. Yup, 2 Republicans on the November ballot.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/25/

Awesome!

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AP gives Palazzo the check.

Pro-Cochran groups are considering whether to dial back. Henry Barbour suggesting they'll try attacking the outside groups supporting McDaniel.

They need to be putting more resources into the primary, not fewer.  A divisive primary is much easier to recover from than having a dreadful candidate like "Mamacita" McDaniel.

But McDaniel seems inevitable, so for the GOP, they're best off getting used to it.

Yeah, the party needs to just start focusing on other races. Even though McDaniel will probably win, it would be best for the GOP to try and pickup at least seven or eight Senate seats now as a buffer against any catastrophes with Republican-held seats.

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99% in, it never got closer. Cantor loses by 12 points. Wow.

This is awful. What reason did enough Republicans in his district feel he should be ousted?

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GOP House Candidate: Islam Not A Religion, Not Protected By Constitution

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Predictions:

MS-Sen (GOP) -  McDaniel 52%, Cochran 48%
OK-Sen (GOP) -  Lankford 44%, Shannon 40%, Brogdon/Others 6% <- Runoff
MD-Gov (Dem) - Brown 48%, Gansler 20%, Mizeur 18%
CO-Gov (GOP) - Tancredo 40% , Beauprez 38%, Gessler 16%, Kopp 4%

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polls closed in MS...

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polls closed in MS...

Not understanding the reference here....

Up to 19% in SC, McMaster ahead of Campbell 67-33. Thompson ahead of Gallagher 56-44. Spearman ahead of Atwater 57-43.

I can't help posting a gif every so often I just meant that I want intervention in the MS-Sen race, hence the reference to Carrie Underwood's "Jesus Take The Wheel".

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AOSHQDD has 0.11% of precincts in, with Cochran at 76% and McDaniel at 23%, but we can't read into that since there are only a few dozen votes so far.

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Over 200 votes in from MS, with Cochran at 72.73% and McDaniel at 27.27.

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AP has over 600 votes in (0.4% of precincts reporting) showing McDaniel taking the lead with  66.1% of the vote, and Cochran taking 33.9%

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MS-Sen: AP has over 3500 votes (1.9% precincts) with McDaniel at 51.3% and Cochran at 48.7%

AOSHQDD has over 1800 votes in (1.04% precincts) with Cochran at 56.52 and McDaniel at 43.48%

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If Tancredo wins tonight, the CO gov. race could move one step closer to Safe D.

A Tancredo victory would be a bag of hurt for the Colorado GOP on the entire ballot.

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AP now has 4.1% precincts in from MS with Cochran at 53.1% and McDaniel at 46.9%.

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^ Good. Lankford would be a great senator.

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MS-Sen: AP has 7.6% of precincts reporting and Cochran has 58.4% and McDaniel has 41.6%.

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MS-Sen: AP with 12% of precincts in and Cochran at 55.2%, with McDaniel at 44.8%.