Australia 2013 - Results thread

[Platypus]

Indi: Mirabella jusssst under 50%.

[Platypus]

Swing in McEwen all in booths that Libs did relatively better in in 2010 than the seat as a whole. I expect it to come back to 7% or so, ALP hold.

[Platypus]

Mirabella down to 44% on first prefs, based on booths 17% swing anti her - looking very good for McGowan.

[Platypus]

Yackandandah *massively* for McGowan! Probably the loveliest town in Victoria for an afternoon tea

[Platypus]

Wodonga Central to Cathy McGowan. Indi's going to be orange!

[Platypus]

Apparentlky the biggest swing in NSW is Fowler... 11.6% to Labor? Whaaa?

[Platypus]

Mitchell edging ahead, but result won't be known tonight.

[Platypus]

Uncomfortable looking private school boy at Turnbull's party is amaaahhhhzing.

[Platypus]

Lyons is coming back for Labor, but too little too late.

[Platypus]

BTW - what did I say about PUP/KAP preferences being badly handled by pollsters?

Yes yes, well done

Mirabella down to 43.6% first preference. C'mon Cathy!

[Platypus]

Looking like 87-90 Coalition, and between 52.5-53.0% TPP.

Which means Labor would struggle to win in three years, but it's certainly not impossible. It also means the Senate is safe.

[Platypus]

Really got it wrong in Tassie. Oops.

WA -  the WA Nationals winning Durack and O'Connor is a bit of a shame, as the Liberal candidates were both fantastic.

[Platypus]

Please, trust a Victorian - ignore Senate results until at least Wednesday

[Platypus]

Squealer at Rudd's speech really annoying

[Platypus]

Demographically naturally ALP. Expect it to be a Labor gain next time around. But yeah, it should've been a bigger swing all things considered.

[Platypus]

Only really the propolls left in McEwen, so slight AEC margin will go the other way on provisional 2PP.

BUT they have the Palmer votes going half-half, and I suspect they'll go more like 66-33. It'll be line-ball, but I reckon Mitchell's got up.

Indi: I'm calling it for Cathy.

Fairfax: NFI.

[Platypus]

2PP will be about 52.8%

[Platypus]

My prediction wasn't fantastic. But hey, at least I called the LDP in NSW and the Motoring Enthusiasts in Victoria...

[Platypus]

E-M booths not counted are both in Queanbeyan.

In 2010, the Queanbeyan PPVC had 57% TPP for Kelly, out of 3,683 votes.

Divisional office only has 363 votes, but 60% Kelly.

Hospital voters in the hundreds, and basically matched the electorate, slight advantage Kelly compared to seat percentage.

So, he'll pull back ahead until we get to absentee:

He did 3% better on them than the seat as a whole, and there were 2302.

A handful of provisionals, where he thumped it.

At this point I'd put him reasonably comfortably ahead, until...

Postal votes. Last time, 5231 of them, and he got just a smidgeon under 50%. Expect that to follow the swing in the seat and say he'll get about 47%, and the seat is right back on a knife's edge. Give them a stronger coalition advantage, as some suggest is necessary, and he loses.

[Platypus]

I think I said earlier that 88 is the point at which Labor could potentially win the next election. Including Indi and Fairxfax on the Coalition side for the sake of the argument, it looks like it'll be 89-91ish.

It's a landslide, but nobody got killed

Also, just a reminder that thirty votes here or there can change the order of elimination in the senate, which has flow on effects for round after round after round. While it's pretty clear that the Coalition will be much happier with the Senate results than Labor, the actual numbers aren't even close to apparent yet, and won't be for days. The 6th senator in a couple of states might even be weeks.

But considering that they don't take their seats for 10 months, plenty of time to count

[Platypus]

Results in the Hunter are interesting: decent (given everything) Labor results in three seats out of four, the exception being Hunter. Which has since the 1980s been a very rural seat with a lot of natural Nationals territory, but personal votes eventually made that look to be not so.

As sort-of-expected double digit swings at that end (Muswellbrook, Singleton, etc) of the division, a rather more mixed picture elsewhere. Did the Nationals actually try for once?

Yes, very much so.

[Platypus]

I'm still peeved that they split Durack. It used to be the biggest electorate in the world (yes, bigger than Alaska)

[Platypus]

I kind of think Abbott representing us on the world stage is more of an embarrassment than another crazy Queensland independent.

[Platypus]

Glad I'm not the only hack on Victoria then

Where do you think Indi is ending up? The McGowan camp are feeling very confident of absolutely dominating the preferences (80%+) but not at all comfortable with postals. Sound about right to you?

[Platypus]

At the end of Sunday, Labor lead in McEwen by 73 votes, which has every chance of being eroded by postals.

The Liberals lead by 265 in Eden-Monaro, which should raise slightly.

Either way, both seats will be within 1500 votes as an absolute max, I'd suggest.

Indi is close. Mirabella is in the box seat, but she is under the 45% margin that was basically the maximum she could get before McGowan was dead.

Fairfax is also unclear, but Palmer is looking good. Postals may not be strong for him, but there's really no way to know.

Fisher is listed as the AEC as undetermined, because it largely comes down to whether or not the PUP candidate can go above Labor, and then get preferences from them to defeat the LNP's Mal Brough. Currently Labor are ahead of PUP by about 3% on first preferences.