US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A disgusting map, but it's a little hard to fell bad for the NC Dems. Live by the sword and all that...

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

There were other splits that were undone that you forgot to mention.

The existing map splits Mecklenberg, and I think even Charlotte, 3 ways. This map splits them 2 ways.

The existing map dives CD-1 all the way down to Craven County as well as other numerous tentacles. The new map shrinks and eliminates the tentacles.

The existing map splits Raleigh between 3 Congressional districts. Looking at the new map, it appears to split Raleigh only 2 ways.

The existing map splits Rutherford and Gaston County. The new map does not.

Mecklenburg has already been addressed.

The new map does indeed shrink NC-01's tentacles, but at the expense of an additional split in Wake County.

I can't really tell about the city of Raleigh just from the map.

The existing map does indeed split Rutherford and Gaston Counties where the new map does not, but now you're splitting hairs. There will (in most states) always be split counties, if only to conform to population equality, which is why I avoided criticizing the counties that are split only two ways in the new map. If the existing splits in Rutherford and Gaston Counties are fair game, then I can bring up the new map's splits in Catawba, Randolph, Lee, Orange, Durham, Franklin, Robeson, Martin, Chowan, Perquimans, and Pasquotank Counties.

[nclib]

Wow, this is even worse than I thought, both in terms of partisanship and aesthetics. NC-4 could still easily have been a vote sink while staying in the Triangle.

krazen, where are you getting the Dole/Hagan/Perdue/McCrory numbers for the current map--some look surprising.

[Miles]

Wow, this is even worse than I thought, both in terms of partisanship and aesthetics. NC-4 could still easily have been a vote sink while staying in the Triangle.

krazen, where are you getting the Dole/Hagan/Perdue/McCrory numbers for the current map--some look surprising.

The legislature website has election numbers posted for each district under "District Stats"

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho-Lewis_Congress_1&Body=Congress

[freepcrusher]

in the next big dem wave election, hopefully this would be a dummymander

[Miles]

It definitely could...Ellmers and Foxx could lose and we could possibly take back the 13th and the 1st if Jones retires.

[nclib]

Wow, this is even worse than I thought, both in terms of partisanship and aesthetics. NC-4 could still easily have been a vote sink while staying in the Triangle.

krazen, where are you getting the Dole/Hagan/Perdue/McCrory numbers for the current map--some look surprising.

The legislature website has election numbers posted for each district under "District Stats"

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho-Lewis_Congress_1&Body=Congress

Those are for the new districts. I was referring to the 2002-2010 CD's that krazen had posted beside the new CD's.

[Dgov]

in the next big dem wave election, hopefully this would be a dummymander

Its not likely to be.  Dummymanders usually involve spreading your voters too thin across multiple districts, and of the 10 Republican-leaning ones, I think they're all more Republican than any seat the Democrats currently hold in NC.  Even if Ellmers and Foxx lose, their seats will almost certainly be picked up by the Republicans again later on, simply because Democrats usually can't hold on to 55% McCain districts for very long.

Either way, the map is almost guaranteed to see a net Republican gain in seats, so in that way it's highly unlikely to wind up backfiring on the Republicans any time soon.

[freepcrusher]

how many of those districts did Kay Hagan win in 2008?

[krazen1211]

Wow, this is even worse than I thought, both in terms of partisanship and aesthetics. NC-4 could still easily have been a vote sink while staying in the Triangle.

krazen, where are you getting the Dole/Hagan/Perdue/McCrory numbers for the current map--some look surprising.

Those are for the new map, not the current one. Hagan won 5 districts total; she won 7 and 8 while Obama lost both.

[DrScholl]

55% McCain is a lot different below the Mason-Dixon line and above Florida than it is anywhere else. The seats that they've attempted to turn their way could easily fall in a wave.

[Smash255]

Obviously the GOP is going for it all, especially with the vote sinking with Price & Watt.   While Elmers certainly got safer, I would look at Cary & Apex.  Tons of New Yorkers (with more coming), and while Republican leaning, its not hardcore conservative.  Elmers is the type of Republican that make Republicans in the northeast scared.

[Miles]

how many of those districts did Kay Hagan win in 2008?

Hagan won the 1st, 4th, 7th, 12th and 8th (by .2%). She lost the 6th by .4%.

[BigSkyBob]

There were other splits that were undone that you forgot to mention.

The existing map splits Mecklenberg, and I think even Charlotte, 3 ways. This map splits them 2 ways.

The existing map dives CD-1 all the way down to Craven County as well as other numerous tentacles. The new map shrinks and eliminates the tentacles.

The existing map splits Raleigh between 3 Congressional districts. Looking at the new map, it appears to split Raleigh only 2 ways.

The existing map splits Rutherford and Gaston County. The new map does not.

Mecklenburg has already been addressed.

The new map does indeed shrink NC-01's tentacles, but at the expense of an additional split in Wake County.

I can't really tell about the city of Raleigh just from the map.

The existing map does indeed split Rutherford and Gaston Counties where the new map does not, but now you're splitting hairs. There will (in most states) always be split counties, if only to conform to population equality, which is why I avoided criticizing the counties that are split only two ways in the new map. 

This last part by you just isn't true. Buncombe  is split into exactly two districts. You yelled "Bloody murder!" about that split.

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[freepcrusher]

how the hell does someone win by 8 points yet win only 5 districts. Take this to the DOJ please.

[BigSkyBob]

McHenry isn't going to want his district's margin cut from 63-36 to 54-45.

Bad call!

[BigSkyBob]

how the hell does someone win by 8 points yet win only 5 districts. Take this to the DOJ please.

On what basis are you going to take it to the DOJ?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

There were other splits that were undone that you forgot to mention.

The existing map splits Mecklenberg, and I think even Charlotte, 3 ways. This map splits them 2 ways.

The existing map dives CD-1 all the way down to Craven County as well as other numerous tentacles. The new map shrinks and eliminates the tentacles.

The existing map splits Raleigh between 3 Congressional districts. Looking at the new map, it appears to split Raleigh only 2 ways.

The existing map splits Rutherford and Gaston County. The new map does not.

Mecklenburg has already been addressed.

The new map does indeed shrink NC-01's tentacles, but at the expense of an additional split in Wake County.

I can't really tell about the city of Raleigh just from the map.

The existing map does indeed split Rutherford and Gaston Counties where the new map does not, but now you're splitting hairs. There will (in most states) always be split counties, if only to conform to population equality, which is why I avoided criticizing the counties that are split only two ways in the new map. 

This last part by you just isn't true. Buncombe  is split into exactly two districts. You yelled "Bloody murder!" about that split.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I know I'm ignoring you, but I feel I should respond here. I made a special exception for Buncombe County, and the city of Asheville in particular, because it is the largest county (and city) in that region, and has formed the core of a district in that area probably for as long as North Carolina has been a state.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And it was in that capacity that it contributed to the English language.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

And it was in that capacity that it contributed to the English language.

Indeed. He was talking for Buncombe.

[BigSkyBob]

Agreed. Its a masterpiece of Republican gerrymandering and minority packing.

According to the numbers posted here, the First district goes from 50.5% Black to 52% Black. The essential difference is not that Blacks are "packed," but, rather, that Blacks are paired with White Democrats rather than White Republicans. You might not like that fact, but, the fact that you don't like the partisan outcome doesn't give you the right to grossly mischaracterize the change in Black percentage. [ The 12th, likewise, has about the same Black percentage, hardly a "pack," as the First, and is similiar to the district two maps ago before the Democrats regressed the Black majority for partisan advantage.]

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[BigSkyBob]

There were other splits that were undone that you forgot to mention.

The existing map splits Mecklenberg, and I think even Charlotte, 3 ways. This map splits them 2 ways.

The existing map dives CD-1 all the way down to Craven County as well as other numerous tentacles. The new map shrinks and eliminates the tentacles.

The existing map splits Raleigh between 3 Congressional districts. Looking at the new map, it appears to split Raleigh only 2 ways.

The existing map splits Rutherford and Gaston County. The new map does not.

Mecklenburg has already been addressed.

The new map does indeed shrink NC-01's tentacles, but at the expense of an additional split in Wake County.

I can't really tell about the city of Raleigh just from the map.

The existing map does indeed split Rutherford and Gaston Counties where the new map does not, but now you're splitting hairs. There will (in most states) always be split counties, if only to conform to population equality, which is why I avoided criticizing the counties that are split only two ways in the new map.  

This last part by you just isn't true. Buncombe  is split into exactly two districts. You yelled "Bloody murder!" about that split.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I know I'm ignoring you, but I feel I should respond here. I made a special exception for Buncombe County, and the city of Asheville in particular, because it is the largest county (and city) in that region, and has formed the core of a district in that area probably for as long as North Carolina has been a state.

So you don't object to splitting the absolute minimal number of counties necessary unless you have your ad hoc reasons. Well, other people will have ad hoc reasons for defending various county lines, or groupings of counties.  


I object morally to the claim that if a county must be split, it is a  smaller, rural county that must be split. Avery has a much right to be whole as Buncombe.

[Miles]

You might not like that fact, but, the fact that you don't like the partisan outcome doesn't give you the right to grossly mischaracterize the change in Black percentage.

Fine...its a masterpiece of Democratic packing.

...happy!!?

[Miles]

Here's Perdue vs. McCrory.

This really shows how packed the Democratic votes are....

[BigSkyBob]

You might not like that fact, but, the fact that you don't like the partisan outcome doesn't give you the right to grossly mischaracterize the change in Black percentage.

Fine...its a masterpiece of Democratic packing.

...happy!!?

Yes, I am happy that you spoke accurately; and, yes, it is a very efficient packing of Democrats.