absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[BundouYMB]

Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

Some states release them, some don't. For those that do they're on the websites of various Secretary of States. Here's a good link to keep track of EV everywhere: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

If you scroll to the right they have racial breakdowns on their chart too.

Also, yes, please stop responding to that grade a idiot 2016election. It's no good for me to have him on ignore if y'all are going to quote him... hit ignore and move on please.

[BundouYMB]

All the reports I'm seeing indicate a decline in the share of black vote among those voting early.

The actual numbers of black voters seem to be up, though clearly not up as much as hispanic (or white) voters.

Entirely possible this is just non-black voters discovering early voting is a thing, rather than any sort of real indication of enthusiasm among black voters.

I told people not to worry so much! 😉

re: this -- I looked at early voting in Louisiana today (just out of curiosity), where blacks have declined significantly as a share of the early vote, and black turnout is actually UP. Black turnout is 116% of 2012 number... it's just that white EV turnout is 160% of 2012 numbers.

That of course doesn't mean black turnout WON'T go down. It COULD. There's just really no evidence of it yet.

[BundouYMB]

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

If states don't collect racial demographic info, then it becomes harder to determine when minority voters are disenfranchised, which unfortunately continues to occur all too often here in the States.

Many would say it makes it easier for states to disenfranchise minority voters.

How else can you perfectly gerrymander a map to your advantage. Or ensure there are fewer polling stations in minority areas.

Your lack of understand of US law/elections is showing here. I don't really feel like explaining this in detail but a lot of laws that protect nonwhites (incl. the Voting Rights Act) have provisions that would be literally impossible to enforce if the government didn't keep this data.

[BundouYMB]

Nick Riccardi Verified account
‏@NickRiccardi

New CO early balloting numbers: Ds 508, 938; Rs 494,757; UAFs 383,275 #copolitics
36-35-27%

Almost 10k R plus margin in Colorado since last update.

Yes, Republicans have been gaining constantly -- but that's to be expected. Registration is even in CO and Republicans led in returned ballots in 2012. D lead of 3~ points wasn't sustainable. Numbers are still good for Clinton obviously.  

[BundouYMB]

Idk why Ralston said it was a good day for the GOP in Washoe. I mean, yes they "won" the day but GOP was +500 in Washoe in 2012 EV. Now with one day to go Democrats are +1,000. Given Obama won Nevada by 7 points in 2012 I don't know in what universe doing worse than 2012 could be called "good."

[BundouYMB]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

Romney won early vote by 2 in CO. He lost the state by five points. In being tied, Trump is doing worse than Romney already.

Apples-to-apples, which I'll be able to do tomorrow, by your metric, Trump should be "ahead" by 5 or 6 points then in CO. Nevada has moved to the right with the early vote as compared to 2016.

And to you other folks "gleeful" right now about Nevada, Trump's not deviating 3,000 miles out of his way tomorrow to have a rally in Reno by accident. If it were "over" there as you claim it is, he would have picked Michigan or another closer East Coast state to campaign in.

I'm surprised you get internet reception in the bunker. Won't matter in a few days though. Your dear Führer is finished.

[BundouYMB]

Assuming I've read McDonald's state-by-state numbers/columns correctly (some of the labeling sounds weird to me, but meh), here's a map showing the most recent early vote in each state as a percentage of the total 2012 vote.

Numbered are the 11 states where the early vote thus far is over 50% of the 2012 total vote.

do you know whats happening in Tennessee?

Nothing is happening in Tennessee. It's simply a state where most of the vote is cast early. Around 75% of the total 2012 vote in TN was EV. There's nothing weird about having 68% of the total 2012 vote in at this point.

[BundouYMB]

What's McDonald trying to say about LA ?

Blacks make up just 26% of the early vote in LA this year, according to his own numbers. And the early vote is 150% that of 2012 already ...

They were at 34% in 2012 and 36% in 2008, a MASSIVE drop.

Tender, blacks are only down as a PERCENTAGE of turnout in LA. In raw numbers blacks are at about 120~% of their 2012 numbers in LA.

[BundouYMB]

Dem advantage in Duval up over 3,000 votes!

DEM 124,058
REP 121,027
OTH 47,472

Would you mind providing the source for this? The only one I have is the one below and it's not showing that yet and I'd like to check on my county - St. Johns.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

That's only updated through yesterday, presumably xīngkěruì saw his numbers on twitter somewhere (hopefully somewhere reliable.) Anyways, the SoS' site will be updated to include ballots cast through today tomorrow morning.