Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, now apparently Gaddafi's army would be close to march from Aljabiya on Benghazi and Tobruk in the same time.

Personally I'd be glad that the countries which knew a revolution, Tunisia, and especially Egypt of which the Air Force is a prestigious corps, propose to do something to militarily help the opposition against Gaddafi murdering its own people, symbolically it would be great. That being said, being taken in revolutionary transitions themselves maybe they, military officials at least, are less inclined to see their country engaged in a war, since Gaddafi could retaliate on them, but still symbolically would be the best.

Now, several ways, either we let Gaddafi's troops reaching Benghazi and Tobruk, hopping that they are defeated by rebels there (who knows, people won't let those big places of them being taken that easily) but it's taking the risk that Air Force does massive war crimes, or we begin to see what we can do to stop that (apparently literally) crazy guy and his maybe not less literally crazy sons which would be the only supports with a bunch of military officials and his tribe (about 100,000 people), well present in Tripoli, that he would still have in the country.

Personally, if Tunisia and especially Egypt does nothing, I'd support a military intervention there since the demand comes from what seems to be a respected representation of the rebel area and that it would stop some guys who already did a lot of war crimes and who maintained its people under a violent regime. If UN blocks it, I personally wouldn't care, the UN Security Council being totally unfair it has never been a reference to me, letting US and NATO out of this would be preferable too, symbolically they have too much screwed around in the world. Then why not a EU force, could be a good occasion to try to set something interesting in that realm in the Union, and if EU doesn't want, well France and UK seem of for this.

The fact France been the 1st to officially propose it kinda annoys me though, well, as I said I would support it, but each time I saw Sarkozy doing something I'd agree with, support, or find interesting, I feel like 'oh no, why is that him who took such or such initiative, he will find a way to screw it' (well, yes, he screwed most of what he touched...). But well, I'd still support it. It would have to be very carefully been done though, in order that it doesn't turn into a full scale war between France/whatever country goes into it and Libya, he has about 200 planes (which would be one of the reason it would be better that only a bunch of countries go into it, for example, if you engage either NATO or EU, you could have retaliations on Italy, as part of those even if not acting). Then I hope for once Sarkozy wouldn't screw around if he is in charge of something here, and if our officials establish serious plans saying it has more chances to be successful and screwed, I'd support.

Optimally, Tunisia and Egypt could try to do something and EU/NATO could promise them some support if they are in difficulty. Anyways, if a decision has to be taken, it could have to be in a very short term, Benghazi and Tobruk seem to clearly be the next step of army.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It has been reported that Egyptian special forces have been in Libya backing the rebels. Reportedly the elite Unit 777.

[Insula Dei]

If there is a major combat operation involving Egypt, I want credit for being the first to predict/suggest/wish for such a development.

Oh, and I don't think Qaddafi's army would be any sort of match for the Egyptian one in an all-out conflict, especially not now. We're talking about an army even the Israeli's fear here, not about some disorganised mercenary militias.

Edit: obviously it's not just sheer idealism that would make Egypt get involved in an all-out civil war:

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/7689/World/Region/Ahram-Online-on-the-Libyan-front-Egyptians-in-the-.aspx

[exopolitician]

If there is a major combat operation involving Egypt, I want credit for being the first to predict/suggest/wish for such a development.

Uh, the world thanks you...?

[Insula Dei]

If there is a major combat operation involving Egypt, I want credit for being the first to predict/suggest/wish for such a development.

Uh, the world thanks you...?

I gratefully accept it's gratitude. I just knew those generals couldn't have made this up without my much-needed assistance.

Actually I just meant it'd be cool if everybody woulk act as if I were some major Forum authority on the region.

[exopolitician]

If there is a major combat operation involving Egypt, I want credit for being the first to predict/suggest/wish for such a development.

Uh, the world thanks you...?

I gratefully accept it's gratitude. I just knew those generals couldn't have made this up without my much-needed assistance.

Actually I just meant it'd be cool if everybody woulk act as if I were some major Forum authority on the region.

Well that's sweet. Thankfully the conflicts of the world do not revolve around your selfish ass though, so thanks for trying at least.

[Mr. Morden]

Egypt may have special forces helping the rebels, but I doubt they're going to be up for any kind of overt military action in Libya.  Too much to worry about internally in Egypt at the moment.

And of course, the UN Security Council isn't going to authorize any military action, because it would be blocked by China and/or Russia.  Turkey also seems to be keen on vetoing any NATO action.

So if there's to be any major military action (such as a no fly zone) in support of the rebels from the outside, it'll probably just be the US, UK, and France, with maybe some token help from a few others, and no authorization from the UN or from NATO.


Oh, and the rebels claim that Gaddafi is getting help from Algeria and Syria:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/rebels-fear-other-regimes-are-throwing-support-behind-gadhafis-forces/article1940647/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is turning into a HUGE missed opportunity.

[exopolitician]

This is turning into a HUGE missed opportunity.

For what and whom exactly?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is turning into a HUGE missed opportunity.

For what and whom exactly?

For him to be unseated. Everyone has been too slow, it gave Qaddafi the chance to re-group and re-take the initiative on the ground.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

24 hour news is deceptive.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

24 hour news is deceptive.

My source isn't news.

Qaddafi has certainly had momentum move in his favour, the reason why there is increasing desperation on the part of some to institute the no-fly zone - if Qaddafi is able to undermine the rebels sufficiently on the ground, the will of the rebels with go two ways, they'll either go underground or they'll harden and become guerrilla fighters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My source isn't news.

That's not really what I was getting at. More your remark about speed.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My source isn't news.

That's not really what I was getting at. More your remark about speed.

Ah, gotcha.

But I still think that they have allowed Qaddafi breathing room.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But I still think that they have allowed Qaddafi breathing room.

Looks that way, doesn't it? But it may have been unavoidable. The trouble is that so much of the information coming out of Libya is so unreliable that we've probably never known what's gone on to the level that we'd normally demand.

That may sound mad, but it is four o clock in the morning and I can't sleep.

[Mr. Morden]

Control of Brega still seems to be contested:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12742858

This is still a long long way from being over.  Gaddafi may have the momentum, but things are changing very very slowly:

[opebo]

Guys, I think maybe you've all been misunderstanding what Colonel Gaddafi is, from the get-go:

As the man has informed us himself in a recent interview:

He said he was not like the Tunisian or Egyptian leaders, who fell after anti-government protests. "I'm very different from them," he said. "People are on my side and give me strength."

I think Gaddafi is reminiscent of Saddam Hussein - a real dictator: one who would die rather than give up power, and whose personal relationships and kinship ties are more important than simply being a figurhead for the army (like Mubarak).  Like Saddam, only the intervention by a foreign imperialist can have much of a chance of dislogding such a leader.

Good for Gaddafi - lets acknowledge that the man never even considered running away.  If the ship went down, he fully expected to go straight to the bottom.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Guys, I think maybe you've all been misunderstanding what Colonel Gaddafi is, from the get-go:

As the man has informed us himself in a recent interview:

He said he was not like the Tunisian or Egyptian leaders, who fell after anti-government protests. "I'm very different from them," he said. "People are on my side and give me strength."

I think Gaddafi is reminiscent of Saddam Hussein - a real dictator: one who would die rather than give up power, and whose personal relationships and kinship ties are more important than simply being a figurhead for the army (like Mubarak).  Like Saddam, only the intervention by a foreign imperialist can have much of a chance of dislogding such a leader.

Good for Gaddafi - lets acknowledge that the man never even considered running away.  If the ship went down, he fully expected to go straight to the bottom.

You forgot the part about him hating the bearded men as much as Saddam did.

[The Mikado]

You forgot the part about him hating the bearded men as much as Saddam did.

You know, Saddam kind of had a Mel Gibson thing going on towards the end there.  He should've done the beard look rather than the mustache look from the beginning.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

You forgot the part about him hating the bearded men as much as Saddam did.

You know, Saddam kind of had a Mel Gibson thing going on towards the end there.  He should've done the beard look rather than the mustache look from the beginning.

I think this is the style he's referring to

[opebo]

I wonder if it would be an infractable offense to express approbation for Messrs Gaddafi and Hussein? 

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I wonder if it would be an infractable offense to express approbation for Messrs Gaddafi and Hussein? 

If done like you just did it would seem unfathomable to receive any death points for it.

[Insula Dei]

The way the West has dealt with this is disgusting and will cost us dear for generations to come. Once again we have signalled to those in the region that we indeed are the enemy and that the secular opposition is incapable of ending dictatorships in most of the Middle-East. I fully expect thousands to turn towards radical islamism across the region.

People who think there was any danger of the islamists taking over in Lybia don't know their stuff. If we're unlucky they will be the ones taking over when the Qaddafi regime falls in 10-20 years or when revolution comes to the Arab peninsula though, because we failed the Arab people this time round.  

[opebo]

The way the West has dealt with this is disgusting and will cost us dear for generations to come. Once again we have signalled to those in the region that we indeed are the enemy and that the secular opposition is incapable of ending dictatorships in most of the Middle-East. I fully expect thousands to turn towards radical islamism across the region.

People who think there was any danger of the islamists taking over in Lybia don't know their stuff. If we're unlucky they will be the ones taking over when the Qaddafi regime falls in 10-20 years or when revolution comes to the Arab peninsula though, because we failed the Arab people this time round.  

Good lord, don't you think this smacks of 'White Man's Burden'?

[The Mikado]

The way the West has dealt with this is disgusting and will cost us dear for generations to come. Once again we have signalled to those in the region that we indeed are the enemy and that the secular opposition is incapable of ending dictatorships in most of the Middle-East. I fully expect thousands to turn towards radical islamism across the region.

People who think there was any danger of the islamists taking over in Lybia don't know their stuff. If we're unlucky they will be the ones taking over when the Qaddafi regime falls in 10-20 years or when revolution comes to the Arab peninsula though, because we failed the Arab people this time round.  

Good lord, don't you think this smacks of 'White Man's Burden'?

When the Arab League invites a NATO intervention, the scenario's somewhat different.