DS0816
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,167
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« on: October 25, 2015, 05:36:40 AM » |
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« edited: October 25, 2015, 05:48:35 AM by DS0816 »
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Illinois will flip Democratic. (Last time a Republican U.S. Senate candidate carried in a presidential year was in 1972—when Richard Nixon won 49 states for re-election and even managed to eke out a win in Cook County.)
Wisconsin will carry for same party at both presidential and senatorial levels. It’s been dong this since 1976. Only GOP wins were in 1980. (No Senate election was held in 1984.)
North Carolina has also been on the same-party pattern since 1972. Only Democratic carriage, on both levels, were in 2008. (No U.S. Senate election was held in 1976 when Jimmy Carter carried the state.)
The most reputable bellwether state, Ohio, has followed the pattern since 1992.
I am keeping in mind that patterns can get broken. But, over the past 10 or so years, about 80 percent of the scheduled U.S. Senate elections from presidential years resulted in same-party carriage with both levels. So, for 33 or 34 Senate elections, roughly 25 to 27 resulted in same-party carriage. I will be keeping this in mind with potentially continuing in 2016.
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