Is this good analysis?

[Xing]

You have to be joking. I'm glad you've come to your senses about Nevada, but if you seriously think Trump is poised to do well in Colorado, you haven't been paying attention.

[Xing]

No, and it doesn't even look like it'll be close.

[Xing]

No way is Trump winning Colorado and New Hampshire. Also, Iowa and Ohio are definitely not "Likely Trump." Is it impossible for you to predict a win for Hillary Clinton? If so, you're in for a rough time on election night. Even though Trump has been clearly behind for most of the race, sometimes by a lot, I'm still not ruling out the possibility that he could win.

[Xing]

No way is Trump winning Colorado and New Hampshire. Also, Iowa and Ohio are definitely not "Likely Trump." Is it impossible for you to predict a win for Hillary Clinton? If so, you're in for a rough time on election night. Even though Trump has been clearly behind for most of the race, sometimes by a lot, I'm still not ruling out the possibility that he could win.

He now has a chance in CO. NH should shift after the debates, and IA & OH are definitely in his column right now. It is difficult to see a scenario in which she wins, and if she somehow managed to win, it would be a narrow victory.

So two states that are very close must be locks for Trump, but a states where he's been consistently down, sometimes by double digits, are totally winnable for him? Okay then, if I use that logic...

North Carolina and Florida are in Hillary's column. Hillary has a chance in Indiana, even if she's down right now. Missouri should shift to Hillary after the debates.

Is it that hard to imagine a scenario in which Hillary wins? Trump may have gained over the past month, but that doesn't mean his gains will continue. Polling suggests a decisive victory for Hillary is very plausible, if not likely.

[Xing]

No way is Trump winning Colorado and New Hampshire. Also, Iowa and Ohio are definitely not "Likely Trump." Is it impossible for you to predict a win for Hillary Clinton? If so, you're in for a rough time on election night. Even though Trump has been clearly behind for most of the race, sometimes by a lot, I'm still not ruling out the possibility that he could win.

He now has a chance in CO. NH should shift after the debates, and IA & OH are definitely in his column right now. It is difficult to see a scenario in which she wins, and if she somehow managed to win, it would be a narrow victory.

So two states that are very close must be locks for Trump, but a states where he's been consistently down, sometimes by double digits, are totally winnable for him? Okay then, if I use that logic...

North Carolina and Florida are in Hillary's column. Hillary has a chance in Indiana, even if she's down right now. Missouri should shift to Hillary after the debates.

Is it that hard to imagine a scenario in which Hillary wins? Trump may have gained over the past month, but that doesn't mean his gains will continue. Polling suggests a decisive victory for Hillary is very plausible, if not likely.

Hillary has ground to lose, and it is Trump's to gain. The debates will only help him in the end, and he can only lose if he decides not to show up. Hillary will continue to go backwards and the momentum will shift even further after the first debate.

Here is a scenario in which Crooked Hillary prevails:

272-266

Sorry to burst your bubble, but things can move in Hillary's direction. Many people are only now starting to pay attention to the election, and some might not until the debates. The assertion that the debates can only help Trump is ludicrous. If Trump comes across as a clueless child with temper issues (like he did in the Republican debates), he will likely lose ground. The map you showed seems like the best case scenario for Trump at the moment, minus the unwinnable Nevada. Just because you don't want Hillary to win and don't feel like she will doesn't mean she won't actually. It pays to look at polls, where the campaigns are spending money and time, and how much organization each campaign has. I just went with my gut feeling back in 2004, which told me Bush couldn't win again; I just couldn't imagine it. Reality doesn't have much regard for gut feelings, though.

[Xing]

No way is Trump winning Colorado and New Hampshire. Also, Iowa and Ohio are definitely not "Likely Trump." Is it impossible for you to predict a win for Hillary Clinton? If so, you're in for a rough time on election night. Even though Trump has been clearly behind for most of the race, sometimes by a lot, I'm still not ruling out the possibility that he could win.

He now has a chance in CO. NH should shift after the debates, and IA & OH are definitely in his column right now. It is difficult to see a scenario in which she wins, and if she somehow managed to win, it would be a narrow victory.

So two states that are very close must be locks for Trump, but a states where he's been consistently down, sometimes by double digits, are totally winnable for him? Okay then, if I use that logic...

North Carolina and Florida are in Hillary's column. Hillary has a chance in Indiana, even if she's down right now. Missouri should shift to Hillary after the debates.

Is it that hard to imagine a scenario in which Hillary wins? Trump may have gained over the past month, but that doesn't mean his gains will continue. Polling suggests a decisive victory for Hillary is very plausible, if not likely.

Hillary has ground to lose, and it is Trump's to gain. The debates will only help him in the end, and he can only lose if he decides not to show up. Hillary will continue to go backwards and the momentum will shift even further after the first debate.

Here is a scenario in which Crooked Hillary prevails:

272-266

Sorry to burst your bubble, but things can move in Hillary's direction. Many people are only now starting to pay attention to the election, and some might not until the debates. The assertion that the debates can only help Trump is ludicrous. If Trump comes across as a clueless child with temper issues (like he did in the Republican debates), he will likely lose ground. The map you showed seems like the best case scenario for Trump at the moment, minus the unwinnable Nevada. Just because you don't want Hillary to win and don't feel like she will doesn't mean she won't actually. It pays to look at polls, where the campaigns are spending money and time, and how much organization each campaign has. I just went with my gut feeling back in 2004, which told me Bush couldn't win again; I just couldn't imagine it. Reality doesn't have much regard for gut feelings, though.

It's not just because I don't want her to win, it's because she will not win. She is a damaged candidate and basically Kerry 2.0 if not worse. Barring a Trump collapse or mishap, he should win the election. Since his campaign changed hands, his numbers have improved and he has not been lashing out at anyone or group in particular. He has pivoted to a more presidential demeanor (visiting Mexico, Louisiana) that is appealing to the general public so far. Things can certainly change but probably will shift in Trump's favor if this continues. But if this cycle has taught us anything, it is unpredictable along with other factors (impending recession, terrorist attacks, party fatigue) and that definitely gives Trump an advantage. And btw don't worry Trump isn't winning Washington or even PA, I can realize that.

If Trump isn't winning PA, he almost certainly isn't winning the election. PA is by far the most likely tipping point state (other than maybe FL, but he would have to win PA for that to happen.) Be careful about making predictions with that much certainty. You're only setting yourself up for even greater disappointment. How do you know Trump won't say something insulting (or several insulting things) during the debates? That's not to say he has a more presidential demeanor. He has said plenty of insulting things over the past month. Unpredictability does not necessarily favor Trump. It could just as easily mean that things will move in Hillary's direction. All I will say is: Believe that Hillary can't win at your own peril. Should Hillary Clinton be projected to become the 45th President on the night of November 8th, don't say I didn't warn you.