Ukraine Crisis

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The new Head of the Ukrainian Navy has sworn an oath of allegiance to Crimea.

[windjammer]

The new Head of the Ukrainian Navy has sworn an oath of allegiance to Crimea.

What a moron and a corrupt bastard...

[Franknburger]

Also, Merkel is cracking under the pressure at Germany's first chance since the 1930's to emerge as a European leader. If I were a German citizen, I would be furious.

As a German citizen with a bit of knowledge about 20th century Eastern European history, I would be furious if Merkel (or any other leading German politician, for that matter) would come out with any sort of statement that isn't extremely well thought over, agreed with major partners (US, UK, France, Poland etc.), and hasn't been based on prior intensive talks with Russia on possible ways out.

In addition, note that Steinmeyer has been visiting the USA on Friday, while Merkel visited the UK yesterday. I assume they haven't yet had too much time to sit together and draw conclusions. I could also imagine a bit of follow-up on the respective visits still going on.
Last but not least, already a few weeks ago CSU (!) politicians had proposed nominating Gerhard Schroder as mediator, for his cordial relation to Putin. At that time, Schroder had declined, but recent events may have lead him to change his mind. In that case, he will definitely have requested free hand and demanded the German government to refrain from any official statement as long as he is trying to get some kind of deal settled.

Don't mistake public comments for leadership...

[J. J.]

The lease is basically in perpetuity, and even Putin isn't pretending it's about the base.

But that is what it is about, the possibility of the base on hostile soil.

If you were an ethic Russian official sitting in Moscow 100 years ago today you could look westward and say, "For our potential enemies to get here, they will have go through the territories filled with Poles, Finns, Belorussians and Ukrainians, that we govern before the set foot on Russian soil.  In the Black Sea, we have a fleet based on our soil to stop them.

If you were an ethnic Russian military official sitting in Moscow 30 years ago today, you could look westward and say, "For our potential enemies to get here, they will have to get past our Allies in East Germany, Czechoslovakia  and then Poland.  Even then, if they enter the Soviet Union, they will have to get past Belorussia and the Ukraine before they step on Russian soil.   In the Black Sea, we have a fleet based on our soil to stop them."

Today?

I'm not defending Putin, but I do understand why he might be a tad worried.

[Beezer]

Except that while Russia is stuck in the 19th century, most of Europe has moved on and is not about to invade the Motherland.

[Famous Mortimer]

The lease is basically in perpetuity, and even Putin isn't pretending it's about the base.

But that is what it is about, the possibility of the base on hostile soil.

If you were an ethic Russian official sitting in Moscow 100 years ago today you could look westward and say, "For our potential enemies to get here, they will have go through the territories filled with Poles, Finns, Belorussians and Ukrainians, that we govern before the set foot on Russian soil.  In the Black Sea, we have a fleet based on our soil to stop them.

If you were an ethnic Russian military official sitting in Moscow 30 years ago today, you could look westward and say, "For our potential enemies to get here, they will have to get past our Allies in East Germany, Czechoslovakia  and then Poland.  Even then, if they enter the Soviet Union, they will have to get past Belorussia and the Ukraine before they step on Russian soil.   In the Black Sea, we have a fleet based on our soil to stop them."

Today?

I'm not defending Putin, but I do understand why he might be a tad worried.

Of course, no one is going to invade Russia ever.

As this incident shows, even when they give people reason to take military action against them, no one does.

[RogueBeaver]

FT reporting that no military contingencies were discussed at the NATO meeting, which was not held under Article 4.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Christ J.J...

[politicallefty]

Any news about Yanukovich? It'd be nice if they managed to arrest him before he flees to Russia.

He's either north, west, east, or south of Kharkiv.

Am I the only one that can draw the parallels to Romania 1989?

You certainly can draw parallels, but they wouldn't really be appropriate.

I'll admit I was very wrong about this situation. At the time, I was expecting a Ceausescu-like result for Yanukovych. Obviously, I was very wrong.

This situation is very troubling. The US cannot be the primary country opposing Russia at this point. The US has virtually no political capital in influencing Russia. Unless a major European power makes a stand, Russia will have its way with non-NATO Eastern Europe.

[ag]

Kaliningrad idea seems good on paper, but it's a fantasy.

First, the Russians are already using air and sea as a major transport venue. And how would you propose to cut it? By a naval blockade against the Russian Navy? You do realize this is an act of war.

Beside, Russia doesn't need to lift a single arm. Europe is still heavily dependant on their gas and oil. Very uncomfortable, but true. In such confrontation it'll be a matter of time before we would give in.

I'm sorry but what else do you expect? Let our economy utterly collapse or freeze to death in winter?

For the moment, it would be enough to stop the lan routes. Let them send everything by air or ship: flying outside the European airspace.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The US and American posters ought to stop speaking from a moral high ground given our aggressive post-Cold War wars against Panama, Iraq, Sudan, etc.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Should we be worried? they won't send nukes over to the USA? lol.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The US and American posters ought to stop speaking from a moral high ground given our aggressive post-Cold War wars against Panama, Iraq, Sudan, etc.

Yes, seeing as how every single American supported those wars no American has any right to ever criticize Russia for imperialist actions. It's a shame absolutely no Americans opposed or protested those wars.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.

[IceSpear]

I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.

lol at you buying that protecting ethnic Russians is the reason Putin invaded. Even Bush going to Iraq due to WMDs was more believable.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.

lol at you buying that protecting ethnic Russians is the reason Putin invaded. Even Bush going to Iraq due to WMDs was more believable.

At the very least it gives Russia far more interest in Ukraine, and wanting control over Russian areas is quite clearly a goal of Putin's. Really, the only parts of Ukraine meaningfully different from Russia are the areas that were part of Austria-Hungary and then Poland, and were annexed into Russia in 1939.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.

You oppose all those so-called American atrocities but you defend Russia.

Seems to me you don't mind aggressive military action unless it's done by Americans or people who perceive as pro-American.

[afleitch]

Personally I don't care for either side that much in a confrontational situation. But I know which side intends to return to a full democracy and functioning constitution. And I know which side is currently encouraging a foreign military incursion.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.

You oppose all those so-called American atrocities but you defend Russia.

Seems to me you don't mind aggressive military action unless it's done by Americans or people who perceive as pro-American.

I'm not a fan of aggressive military action in general, but I don't like double standards either (and the idea that there's only propaganda on Moscow's side is hilariously untrue). For instance,

[Famous Mortimer]

The President, the Prime Minister, and the leader of the largest governing party in Ukraine are all native Russian speakers from Eastern Ukraine.

The chances of their government taking hostile action against Russian Ukrainians is about the same as the chances of Obama launching a genocide against White people.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm not denying that many people both in and outside America are opposed to aggressive wars started by both the US and Russia, but many of the same people criticizing Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime see nothing wrong with Obama sending drones to turn a Yemeni wedding into a Yemeni funeral, or Bush setting up torture camps in Iraq (which he had earlier invaded under false pretext), or Clinton laying waste to basic civilian infrastructure (and civilians) in Yugoslavia, etc.

You oppose all those so-called American atrocities but you defend Russia.

Seems to me you don't mind aggressive military action unless it's done by Americans or people who perceive as pro-American.

I'm not a fan of aggressive military action in general, but I don't like double standards either (and the idea that there's only propaganda on Moscow's side is hilariously untrue). For instance,

You don't like double standards? Then why do you oppose aggressive American military action but defend aggressive Russian military action?

This is the second time I am pointing out your own double standard.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I don't support the Russian invasion, but I don't support the Western propaganda surrounding it either. Both sides in Ukraine were run by corrupt oligarchs--but some of those corrupt oligarchs and their neo-Nazi lackeys were pro-EU, so they had to be the good guys.

[Oakvale]

Putin for wanting to protect ethnic Russians from a neo-Nazi regime

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't support the Russian invasion, but I don't support the Western propaganda surrounding it either. Both sides in Ukraine were run by corrupt oligarchs--but some of those corrupt oligarchs and their neo-Nazi lackeys were pro-EU, so they had to be the good guys.

If you don't support Russian military action and you don't like propaganda then why are you buying into Russia's obvious propaganda about their reasons for invading?

Again, because you don't actually mind propaganda, you just have a knee jerk hatred for America or in this case, a movement you perceive as being American backed even though it wasn't. Additionally, you only believe America was behind it because, again amusingly, Russian propaganda.

Furthermore, most people supporting the revolution have been very honest about the fact that far right elements are involved. No one has denied it. We've just denied the ridiculous claim that all the protesters are Nazis or that the entire movement can be summed up as Nazis.

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't support the Russian invasion, but I don't support the Western propaganda surrounding it either. Both sides in Ukraine were run by corrupt oligarchs--but some of those corrupt oligarchs and their neo-Nazi lackeys were pro-EU, so they had to be the good guys.

Some of them had snipers shoot random protesters. Others didn't. It's obvious which side are the good guys.