US House Redistricting: Louisiana

[Oryxslayer]

JBE's case doesn't rest in the courts, it rests with the census data. If the AA pop is high enough, he's going to make the case that AAs deserve 2/6 rather than 1/6. Presently AA pop is near 33%, and NOLA rebounded hard after Katrina, but the AA pop in the belt is shrinking, like everywhere. There's a few ways you can draw that second seat, but it always involves going from BR to Caddo. This is less a case for common cause and fair Redistricting groups, and more a case for NAACP. I'm going to have a LA thread up tomorrow if JBE win, but the simple explanation is that this is going to be a battleground, no matter if the GOP has a supermajority or not.

[Oryxslayer]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/louisiana/#Dem

Eh you can make a reasonably compact 2nd black district.

On 2010 racial figures. I'm skeptical that will continue to be the case in 2020.

2020 BVAP projects are far more  favorable to the urban areas than 2010, you need a second city with BR.

[Oryxslayer]

Now the question does RIchmond even want his district diluted?

D+25 to lets say D+18 isn't diluting lul. Nobody needs a 60% AA pop seat except perhaps in Mississippi these days, districts with that level of BVAP were  struck down in NC. As long as he can easily survive a primary I assume he will be happy, which probably needs at least say a 10% gap between AA and Whites, which is easily achievable. Whites after all vote between the D and R primaries whereas AA's are solely in the D primary.

[Oryxslayer]

We don't know what the end result here would be yet, but I will note in preparation for maps that one can draw a 50% BVAP seat without using Shreveport or the counties adjacent to Vicksburg. BR + North Lafayette + some surrounding environs are all that is needed. This does push the New Orleans seat below 50% BVAP, but it doesn't need to be that high to perform.

Now why do I note this? Well, while these seats are compact and reflect Gingles, they give middle fingers to the R incumbents. Scalise and Grave's seats would see major overhauls, and cutting Lafayette is likely undesirable by Higgins. So, if there is to be a second AA seat, it would likely be less compact than ideal specifically to get the GOP incumbents that matter on board.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/PiperHutchBR/status/1488613266087723014?s=20&t=99XrPOz3B...

Note there is currently a suit against the supreme court map, both on OMOV grounds since it hasn't been updated in decades, and on the grounds that there should be a second AA seat. The leg has plans to actually remap the court lines this year unlike last cycle, but they may only end up addressing point 1 rather than both. However, as the map shows, if one considers it difficult but not hard to get two AA seats above 50% BVAP on a 6 seat map, it is incredibly easy on a 7 seat one.

[Oryxslayer]

IIRC Scotus has already ruled against OMOV for State supreme court districts. 7 districts is actually pretty nice for Lousiana. 6 is awkard af to deal with.

Yeah though having one seat be 150K underpop and one 150K over - thank you Katrina - doesn't really pass the smell test, which is why the leg has put the court map on the schedule. Similar situation as IL earlier.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MelindaDeslatte/status/1488617615962558465

Yeah that shows the "limits" of LA. In a state roughly 1/3 AA it is simple to get 1/3 of seats to be AA seats...but then you have to reach. Anyway, the GOP Leg will likely be giving JBE a least change plan to veto:

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1488622417627037703?s=20&t=99XrPOz3...

[Oryxslayer]

Also interesting that all the Dem maps with the 2nd black seat make it extremely safe rather than some of the Biden + 6 or Biden + 10 configs I’ve seen here.

That's the thing about redistricting in the deep south. You either get a mandated minority seat or a bleached white seat - zero sum. In a fair world there would be some more variation, bot not much. Either LA is found to be legally required to provide for a second AA seat, and therefore makes it performing so that there arn't time and money consuming MS SD-22 style cases, or it isn't and 5-1 remains.

Also, somewhat related, but the diagonal was submitted as a proposal seemingly for variations sake.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1488666890599907334?s=20&t=f_Xb32jL...

[Oryxslayer]

Senate committee votes to advance only 5-1 maps, the the shock of nobody. Courts or compromise will only occur if the expected veto holds.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1491191458057302016?s=20&t=b0BZ_8Uo...

A 100% party line vote, though this isn't the chamber that matters - the GOP has the exact number of seats needed to override.

[Oryxslayer]

Plans vetoed.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1509226461550583809?s=20&t=dO1mw2nsU4o...

Veto overridden.