GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also, those Al Jazeera commercials are hilarious. A tight shot of the Arabic script logo and an ominous voice "You know what that means..."

Yeah, that ad is over the top.  Politifact examined it and rated it "Mostly False": http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/citing-jazeera-payments-ossoff-uses-selective-information/TvaQHx14pnT6Ri4OU8mJ8O/

A deeper dive on this from Jim Galloway, an excellent political reporter for the AJC.  Really interesting reading.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/15/jon-ossoff-and-al-jazeera-the-truth-is-far-more-interesting/

[Barnes]

Also, those Al Jazeera commercials are hilarious. A tight shot of the Arabic script logo and an ominous voice "You know what that means..."

Yeah, that ad is over the top.  Politifact examined it and rated it "Mostly False": http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/citing-jazeera-payments-ossoff-uses-selective-information/TvaQHx14pnT6Ri4OU8mJ8O/

A deeper dive on this from Jim Galloway, an excellent political reporter for the AJC.  Really interesting reading.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/15/jon-ossoff-and-al-jazeera-the-truth-is-far-more-interesting/

Jim is as sardonic as always!

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[Adam Griffin]

wow so you're creating a whole new term here? voter enthusiasm that only counts with enthusiastic voters?

No, I'm saying that as a share of likely voters, a much higher percentage of them in a special election are enthusiastic, will know about the candidates/issues and will be undeterred by outside factors when compared to a high-turnout presidential election with a bunch of low-info voters who barely bother showing up for that and who water down their numbers. I'm sure that if your rain evidence even exists (I've always questioned it outside of veritable monsoon scenarios), the data was likely collected within the confines of high-turnout elections rather than low-turnout affairs like this - otherwise, it would be a relatively meaningless observation for most. You're trying to act as if special election voters as a whole are just as fickle as presidential year voters, which is insane; as if just as large of a percentage of them who planned to vote on Election Day are suddenly going to sit home because of a little rain when compared to the Homer Simpsons of the world waddling their fat asses down to the ballot box once every four years.

There is no such thing as a "likely special election voter" because special elections have too many variables, are too rare, and the sample size is too small. They will utilize a likely voter model based on how active a voter has been in other races, but you've basically invented a new, non-quantifiable class of voters.

Wut - the modeling you described is literally the same way you determine likely voters for every other type of election, along with other data-points; it's not hard at all to determine who is most likely to vote in a particular special election. There are usually several percentage points of virtually any active electorate that vote in every election - presidential, midterm, municipal, special - and they will almost always make up a majority (or a very large chunk) of your special election electorate: it's very easy to tell who they are. And yes, there are variables that can impact turnout based on the type of special election (candidate vs. issue-based), the month it is held, and so forth, but there is almost always enough precedent for any situation to account for it, including relevant past special elections in the voters' jurisdictions. Besides all of that, there are always likely voters in any election (including specials): whether you know who they are or have enough information to determine that is another story.

1. Rain affects voter turnout (fact), and rain correlates with higher vote share for republicans (this is also a fact)

Which you've yet to actually prove (although it gets repeated quite often)

2. The around half of eligible voters do not vote (fact)
3. Turnout is lower in special elections than non-special elections (fact).
4. This district has a large republican voter registration advantage (fact).

So based on these we can state, a smaller number of voters are going to vote in this election, this district is mostly republican, so most likely republicans will garner the larger share of votes, and the average and apathetic voter doesn't care.

OK? Literally nobody was or is arguing any of this with you. I'm not sure what you think it proves within the confines of rain affecting special election turnout.

Looking at the above I would say, yes rain on election day is not good for Ossoff (they will need to keep pace with republican turnout on election day, the majority of people turning out are going to be republicans and they'll need to staunch the bleeding). Ossoff will need to turn out democrat leaning voters who you say are so enthusiastic, but haven't voted yet (bit of a conflict of human behavior?)  To keep pace with the republicans hes clearly going to have to turn out more of the average voter who "hasn't gotten around to voting yet" and "will do it later." Rain is not going to help his cause

Assuming that your rain argument actually holds up - and that it also controlled for income, age, race, geography, the low-turnout nature of the race, early vote already cast, early voting location distribution, the lack of motivation to vote early in special elections because of a lack of long lines on ED, and any additional factors that might put this district out of step with "average CD" - we can pretty much bank on Metro ATL not getting three inches of rain during the final hours of voting on Tuesday or whatever, so any effects that might be felt are going to be statistically insignificant by your own admission unless he's sitting at 49% (newsflash: this is going to a runoff either way).

[GeorgiaModerate]

From Republican state senator Fran Millar at a GOP breakfast:

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http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/15/warring-republicans-try-to-unite-against-ossoff-in-georgias-sixth/

[Gass3268]

Revily poll of GA-06:

Ossoff 45
Handel 17
Gray 16
Moody 9

[heatcharger]

^^ Potential runoff matchups from that poll:

Ossoff 47%
Handel 46%

Gray 48%
Ossoff 47%

Trump Approval:

Approve 47.48%
Disapprove 47.79%

Candidate Favorables:

Hill 34/28
Handel 36/50 (wow!)
Ossoff 48/47

[Barnes]

From Republican state senator Fran Millar at a GOP breakfast:

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http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/15/warring-republicans-try-to-unite-against-ossoff-in-georgias-sixth/

It's so funny to watch them squirm. Millar is one of the worst.

[Maxwell]

lol @ Hill's campaign.

[DrScholl]

From Republican state senator Fran Millar at a GOP breakfast:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/15/warring-republicans-try-to-unite-against-ossoff-in-georgias-sixth/

Scarlett O'Hara needs to calm down (and yes, I do know that Millar's a man, but he still sounds extra dramatic like Scarlett).

[The Other Castro]

How can 1% of those that have already voted be undecided? UGH

[OneJ]

How come Handel is so unpopular in a district like this?

[GeorgiaModerate]

How can 1% of those that have already voted be undecided? UGH

They forgot who they voted for?

[GeorgiaModerate]

How come Handel is so unpopular in a district like this?

IMO her personality comes off as rather cold, which may put off some voters.  For more tangible reasons, her role in the episode with the Komen charity and Planned Parenthood a few years ago probably turned off quite a few female voters.

[Ronnie]

I think Karen Handel is really undervalued on PredictIt.  Assuming she and Ossoff make the runoff, which seems likely, she'd be the heavy favorite (maybe 70+%...).  Is the prospect of Bob Gray upsetting her in the jungle holding back her numbers?

I'm considering making an investment, but I've already lost quite a bit of money on that website--around 300 dollars--so I think I'll pass.

[DrScholl]

How come Handel is so unpopular in a district like this?

Perhaps people are sick of seeing her name on the ballot. She's been on the statewide primary ballot twice in four years. Seems like she's running to just receive a title and prestige.

[Maxwell]

Handel is not a good candidate.  Not like Gray, Moody, or Hill are, but she's decidedly uninspiring.

[Ronnie]

So I've been exploring the ads that the candidates in this race have put out, and I'm really surprised that Boy Gray managed to fit every single black Republican in the sixth district into a single ad.  It must have taken a lot of work to find them all:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0YpLGWqime4

Also, is it just me, or does this Karen Handel attack ad resemble a horror movie trailer?  It's probably the cheesiest thing I've seen in a long time:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XFb8CAzvy_Y

[BuckeyeNut]

Bob Gray seems like a moron. Hope he makes the runoff.

[Ronnie]

Bob Gray seems like a moron. Hope he makes the runoff.

Be careful what you wish for.  I'd prefer a bland Republican establishment candidate over a far-right Trump yes-man any day.  It is possible that many candidates of the latter persuasion win in 2018 Republican primaries, making President Trump and potential future far-right Presidents more powerful than they otherwise would be.  A "Breitbart" caucus in congress would be an absolute nightmare.

[OneJ]

So I've been exploring the ads that the candidates in this race have put out, and I'm really surprised that Boy Gray managed to fit every single black Republican in the sixth district into a single ad.  It must have taken a lot of work to find them all:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0YpLGWqime4

Also, is it just me, or does this Karen Handel attack ad resemble a horror movie trailer?  It's probably the cheesiest thing I've seen in a long time:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XFb8CAzvy_Y

Bob Gray's ad: LOL! #MAGA

Handel's ad: She thinks this is going to help big league? She needs to think about trying again or else she'll lose in the runoff (if she makes it that far).

[Maxwell]

Bob Gray seems like a moron. Hope he makes the runoff.

Be careful what you wish for.  I'd prefer a bland Republican establishment candidate over a far-right Trump yes-man any day.  It is possible that many candidates of the latter persuasion win in 2018 Republican primaries, making President Trump and potential future far-right Presidents more powerful than they otherwise would be.  A "Breitbart" caucus in congress would be an absolute nightmare.

The reason I fear Gray the least is that he is currently being cucked by the Trump administration, since they are actively running ads against him despite him being TEAM TRUMP in every single ad.

[Mike Thick]

This is kind of dumb, but whenever I hear about Bob Gray I always think about how in It Pennywise always introduces himself to his victims as "Mr. Bob Gray."

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is kind of dumb, but whenever I hear about Bob Gray I always think about how in It Pennywise always introduces him herself to his victims as "Mr. Bob Gray."

Same, also FTFY

[jamestroll]

Adam..

Am I going to faint ?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So I've been exploring the ads that the candidates in this race have put out, and I'm really surprised that Boy Gray managed to fit every single black Republican in the sixth district into a single ad.  It must have taken a lot of work to find them all:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0YpLGWqime4

Also, is it just me, or does this Karen Handel attack ad resemble a horror movie trailer?  It's probably the cheesiest thing I've seen in a long time:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XFb8CAzvy_Y

What makes the Gray ad weird is where that music has been used before: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzYRKpzg62Y