Palin Leads Obama by 15 in Texas

[GMantis]

Tell that to the Democrat Party, David Plouffe, and obama's campaign team.  They claimed obama would win Texas in '12.

Texas isn't a state comprised of right-wing rednecks, contrary to what you hacks in the Northeast think.  I don't doubt that any Republican would be ahead of Obama in Texas but the margin is what is so telling.  After all, it's unlikely that a non-Texan Republican can win the state by any more than 20 points in a presidential election (Bush won by 23 in 2008).

So Palin is only around 5 points off what I believe is best victory margin a Republican can attain against Obama in texas.  It shows it's a close race betwen Palin and Obama unless you are one of the hacks who believes that what happens in Texas is not happening around the country.

Considering that Obama lost by almost 12 percent in 2008, this means that he has lost about 3 percent of support. If this swing was applied countrywide (and it's likely that support for Obama in Texas has declined even more than in the US as a whole) then Obama would still win handily. So in other words, this is not good news for Palin at all: even with Obama's current unpopularity she's not close to defeating him at all.
As for Obama's campaign managers, it's their job to be optimistic. I believe that there were statements by members of Bush's campaign stating that Bush could win New York

[Poundingtherock]

GMantis, so a 3-4 point Obama lead two years before an election means she has no chance?

Your argument that Obama's approval has declined more in Texas than the rest of the country is probably off.  Obama couldn't do any worse in red states from 2008.  His decline in Texas is probably no different than his decline in swing states such as Florida and Ohio.

And there's still room for more decline.  This economy will hopefully and will likely continue to struggle immensely.  Besides, people don't like Obama personally despite the media adulation that he receives...meaning that even if the economy improves, he'll still be where he is.  Look at Culver in Iowa.  The economy is good in Iowa and he's getting the boot.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

GMantis, so a 3-4 point Obama lead two years before an election means she has no chance?

Your argument that Obama's approval has declined more in Texas than the rest of the country is probably off.  Obama couldn't do any worse in red states from 2008.  His decline in Texas is probably no different than his decline in swing states such as Florida and Ohio.

And there's still room for more decline.  This economy will hopefully and will likely continue to struggle immensely.  Besides, people don't like Obama personally despite the media adulation that he receives...meaning that even if the economy improves, he'll still be where he is.  Look at Culver in Iowa.  The economy is good in Iowa and he's getting the boot.

That's very nice...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's time that we let force Texas to secede.

[King]

Cheer up MK Ultra....if only our country was run as your state is being run, we'd be in much better shape.

Texas is a clear example of what happens when you have a conservative in charge: economic success in a time of economic peril.

Any success Texas has is the result of them having some of the best mayors in the country planning their big city sprawl.  The state government is a joke and always has been.

[GMantis]

GMantis, so a 3-4 point Obama lead two years before an election means she has no chance?

Your argument that Obama's approval has declined more in Texas than the rest of the country is probably off.  Obama couldn't do any worse in red states from 2008.  His decline in Texas is probably no different than his decline in swing states such as Florida and Ohio.

And there's still room for more decline.  This economy will hopefully and will likely continue to struggle immensely.  Besides, people don't like Obama personally despite the media adulation that he receives...meaning that even if the economy improves, he'll still be where he is.  Look at Culver in Iowa.  The economy is good in Iowa and he's getting the boot.

I didn't say that Palin doesn't have a chance, I said that she's not in a good position even with Obama's current unpopularity. And it's quite possible that this may pass if (probably to your disappointment) the economy improves until then.
As for Texas, there is evidence that Obama's popularity has really declined there.  According to this poll he had 61% disapproval in February, when his countrywide approval ratings were not nearly as bad as they are now. He was also trailing horribly among independents. In fact, with such a approval rating, Obama's result against Palin doesn't seem bad at all.

[DrScholl]

He's trailing in a very reliably Republican state, losing what he already lost in 2008 is hardly a surprise or a sign of anything.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

He's trailing in a very reliably Republican state, losing what he already lost in 2008 is hardly a surprise or a sign of anything.

We keep hearing that Texas is rapidly trending Democratic. Palin seems widely considered to be a joke candidate, and the weakest potential GOP nominee, and yet she's leading in Texas by a larger margin than McCain carried the state two years ago.