UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[politicallefty]

I've been following this election since it was called, but this is my first post in this topic. I think it's funny how a few posters indiscriminately attacked Americans for posting here. That may be true for quite a few (mostly with blue avatars), but almost everything I said from other UK topics in this board has or is coming true.

The only thing that's really surprising me in this election is how the Labour vote is holding pretty solid at or around the 2015 number nationwide. I think it's also interesting how the seat shifts are more dependent on a drop in the Labour vote rather than a rise in the Conservative vote (so long as they don't break into the high 40s).

It seems to me like one or two things (or both) needs to happen for the Conservatives to break 400 seats. I think Labour needs to fall below 30% and/or the Conservatives need a breakthrough into Scotland. The former may or may not happen, but I haven't seen many polls of Scotland and I'm wondering if any rise in the Tory vote in Scotland may happen disproportionately outside of Edinburgh and Glasgow. (Fwiw, I don't see any hope whatsoever for Labour in Scotland.)

[politicallefty]

The polling does seem to show some tightening, but where is this happening? I highly doubt it's even across the country. If Labour is gaining in Scotland at the expense of the Tories, any seat gains there will just end up being at the expense of the SNP.  I don't think the possibility of a hung Parliament happens unless the Conservatives fall below 40%.

[politicallefty]

As I already asked before, where is Labour making these inroads? Is is in their strongholds or former strongholds or is it somewhere new? I'm not comparing a general election to a referendum, but Brexit barely passed while winning a huge majority of constituencies. If Labour is making meaningful gains in England, that's a serious shift in this election. With that said though, there's still 2.5 weeks to go. As the old axiom goes, even a week is a lifetime in politics.