South African local government elections - August 3, 2016

[Kosmos]

On august 3rd, South Africans in 226 local municipalities and 8 metropolitan municipalities will go to the polls to elect their local government for the next five years.

All eyes seem to be on some of the metros. Outside of the Western Cape province, the governing African National Congress (ANC) is expected to easily retain almost all of the local muncipalities that it controls. Only a handful of councils are expected to be tightly contested.

And yet the narrative being peddled is of a governing party on the backfoot. The reason for this being that some of the municipalities that do hang in the balance are quite significant. Such as Johannesburg or Tshwane (Pretoria). Both the main opposition parties - Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are expected to make gains.

[Kosmos]

Thanks for the info, Hash. These elections are complicated, I must admit, so it's good that someone lays out the info clearly.

DA claims that NFP leaders in Nongoma and eDumbe have endorsed them:

https://www.da.org.za/2016/08/da-welcomes-nfp-edumbes-endorsement-da/

It seems to be a local initiative, as the highest NFP leadership is working with ANC, but it is still interesting if true, considering that it isn't exactly a traditional area for them, to put it mildly.

[Kosmos]

As far as I can tell from the News24 map, voter turnout was at least 70%, sometimes close to 80%, in DA-dominated wards in Nelson Mandela Bay. In ANC strongholds, the turnout was around 60% on average.

Also has the VF+ gained votes this election? Maybe they are capturing white voters who feel alienated by the DA...

VF+ has increased, but not as much as I thought they would. They seems to have gained around 0,75% of the national vote, up from 0,40% in the last local elections. Their gains are probably limited to a few strong areas such as Potchefstroom, as well as the rural areas of the Free State, Limpopo and the Western Cape. VF+ did quite well, by their standards, in WC, picking up seats in Drakenstein, Breede Valley, George, Hessequa and Mossel Bay. They only got one in Cape Town last time.

But most SA whites seem to still regard the DA as their best option, even those who are not too fond of the party.

[Kosmos]

Mangaung (Bloemfontein) ANC hold

ANC 56.52% (-9.75) 58 seats (-7)
DA 25.96% (-1.15) 27 seats (+1)
EFF 8.66 (+8.66) 9 seats  (+9)
VF+ 1.92 (+0.41) 2 seats (nil)
AIC 1.69% (+1.69) 2 seats (+1)
ANA 0.89% (+0.89) 1 seat (+1)
COPE 0.60% (-2.56%) 1 seat (-2)

APC lost its only seat

Is the DA decline there just because of the merger?

Apparantly not entirely. I added the Mangaung and Naledi results from 2011 together and DA ended up at 26,75%. So that is still a drop of -0.79%.

It should be mentioned that DA essentially stood still at 20% in the Free State as a whole, while earning a lower voter share than last time in Mpumalanga and North West. Of course, part of that is explained by VF+ picking up a little support, and they did well in parts of rural KZN, EC and Limpopo.

But overall speaking DA did not do too well in the rural areas. Not even with the rural coloured voters in the Northern Cape. Is this because they focused so heavily on the GP and PE metros, or would they have done badly regardless?

[Kosmos]

This leaves us KwaZulu-Natal

Jozini: NOC hold: ANC 19, IFP 18, EFF 1, DA 1, Independent 1
Nongoma: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 22, ANC 13, DA 5, EFF 2
Hluhluwe/Somkele: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 13, ANC 11, DA 1
Mtubatuba: NOC hold: IFP 18, ANC 18, DA 2, EFF 1, AIC 1
eDumbe: NOC gain from NFP: ANC 8, DA 5, IFP 3
Abaqulusi: NOC hold: ANC 21, IFP 19, DA 3, EFF 1
Ulundi: IFP hold: IFP 35, ANC 11, EFF 1
Mthonjaneni: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 14, ANC 10, EFF 1
Nquthu: NOC hold: IFP 15, ANC 14, NFP 2, EFF 1, DA 1
Nkandla: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 15, ANC 12
Msinga: IFP hold IFP 24, ANC 12
Endumeni: NOC hold ANC 6, IFP 4, DA 2, EFF 1
Estcourt/Loskop: NOC hold ANC 23, IFP 18, DA 2, ALJAMA 2, EFF 1

Surpringly many hung municipalities in KZN (7, by my count), considering that NFP did not contest the elections (except in Nquthu). It seems both the DA and EFF could position themselves as kingmakers in several of them.

[Kosmos]

ANC might still retain Rustenburg. There are 3 smaller parties I know nothing about that won seats. ANC only need two seats for a majority, albeit a fragile one, so it is still possible that they could prevail.

9. uMngeni, KwaZulu-Natal.  DA 41.12%. Shockingly a black (75%) Zulu (64.3%) place that sent its anti-ANC vote to DA, not toIFP. 19.4% of the population is white and full 25.5% speaks English. But, still... Can somebody explain?

That's an interesting one. Certainly seems strange at first glance for DA to do so well there. These demographics seem very similar to Tshwane's. But I checked the IEC's map, and it turns out DA support in the uMngeni townships wasn't much to brag about; a few percent in most cases. There might be middle class blacks in Howick that they did better with, however.

But I rather think the answer lies with the whites, though I can't say for sure. uMngeni is the council with by far the largest share of white residents in KZN. And remember that whites are overrepresented even in ordinary elections. In local polls they are even more so. I would not be surprised if 30% of the uMngeni votes, or close to it anyway, came from white voters. And with Howick being english, there is no VF+ to take votes. Then there is also a respectable portion of indians living there. So, all in all, I don't think DA is doing that well with black voters there. They are just good at getting their own supporters out to vote.

[Kosmos]

AIC goes into nationwide coalition with ANC. Together they have 44 out of 90 seats in Rustenburg. One more seat needed to block opposition control and another to form the municipal government there.

Did ANC concede to demands to transfer Matatiele to KZN?