SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Tayya]

With today's DN/Ipsos poll coming out, the January poll series is finished.

Party - - - - - - Demoskop - United Minds - YouGov - Skop - - - Sifo - - Novus - Ipsos

Moderates - - - 22.3% - - - - - 24.0% - - - - 25.7% - 27.2% - 25.4% - 24.5% - 25.0%
Liberals - - - - - 5.8% - - - - - - 6.1% - - - - - 5.7% - - 6.3% - - 6.5% - - 5.1% - - 6.4%
Centre - - - - - - 4.5% - - - - - - 4.5% - - - - - 5.3% - - 4.5% - - 3.7% - - 3.5% - - 3.1%
Chr. Dems. - - - 3.6% - - - - - - 3.3% - - - - - 4.3% - - 3.1% - - 3.3% - - 3.5% - - 3.4%

Soc. Dems. - - - 34.7% - - - - - 32.5% - - - - 31.9% - 32.7% - - 32.9% - 33.8% - 34.0%
Greens - - - - - - 11.1% - - - - - 8.9% - - - - - 7.9% - - 9.7% - - 9.4% - - 9.2% - - 9.9%
Left - - - - - - - - 6.5% - - - - - - 8.4% - - - - - 7.6% - - 7.0% - - 8.3% - - 8.1% - - 9.1%

Sweden Dems. - 9.8% - - - - - 10.8% - - - - 10.0% - 8.4% - - 9.2% - - 11.0% - - 7.3%
Others - - - - - - - 1.7% - - - - - 1.5% - - - - - 1.6% - 1.1% - - 1.3% - - - 1.3% - - 1.7%

Bloc difference - 16.1% - - - - - 11.9% - - - - 6.5% - 8.3% - - 11.7% - - 14.5% - 15.1%

Average:
Moderates: 24.9%
Liberals: 6.0%
Centre: 4.2%
Chr. Dems.: 3.5%

Soc. Dems.: 33.2%
Greens: 9.4%
Left: 7.9%

Sweden Dems.: 9.5%
Others: 1.5%

Bloc difference: 12.0%

[Tayya]

The Moderates are going bonkers right now. This week they announced that the prognostications for the economy had been overtly rosy, and that there would be no room for tax reductions until 2018. Instead, they announced that they would raise the taxes on vehicles, alcohol and tobacco.

Today, at a press conference, Minister of Finance Anders Borg announced that the student grants will be lowered by 300 SEK (45 USD) per month, with the amount accessible through national student loans will be increased by 1000 SEK (155 USD) per month - a net increase, but with a bigger amount to be repaid. They also want to remove the possibility for all 68-year olds to have their student loans written off.  One can argue whether it's good or bad policy, but it looks like trying to balance the budget on the back of students, which is not good optics at all.

The only people I've seen that are happy about the student loan/grant policies (most of my peers are students, of course, and thus not impartial) are the head of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce, the CEO of Timbro (Sweden's Cato Institute) and Centre Party-affiliated activists (the libertarian variant).

By the way, in the latest SIFO polls, the Alliance are 16.8 %-points behind the non-SD opposition, with the Centre Party obtaining 2.8% of the vote. No comment needed.

[Tayya]

This poll doesn't tell us anything new and is probably an outlier (mainly for the Greens) but I would just like to note it because the numbers are, well, embarrassing:

Moderates: 22.6%
Liberals: 5.1%
Centre: 3.6%
Chr. Dems.: 3.3%

Soc. Dems.: 32.7%
Greens: 12.5%
Left: 8.4%

Sweden Dems.: 10.0%
Others: 1.8%

Bloc difference: 19.1%
Undecided: 14.3%

Even if all the undecided voters voted for the Government in the end, they would still be smaller than the left bloc together.

Even I'm having to consider changing my belief in the government having a chance.

[Tayya]

Good question.

Tayya's analysis of Swedish politics 2010-2014

To recap what happened during the term, the Social Democrats emerged from losing their second election in a row for the first time since the Stone Age in shock and desperately trying to find a new leader after the deeply flawed Mona Sahlin, tainted by old scandals, incompetence, failing to manage a three-party coalition and having an extremely annoying voice.

With the arrival of Helle Thorning-Schmidt as the leader of the Danish Social Democrats, Sweden had become the only Nordic country left without ever having had a female major party leader. Anna Lindh, Social Democratic Minister of Foreign Affairs, was bound to succeed Göran Persson in 2004 but was stabbed to death by a loon while shopping just before the Euro referendum in the fall of 2003. (Unlike the murder of Olof Palme, the perpetrator was caught on camera and was caught.) For a party that likes gender equality in a country that likes gender equality, it was becoming embarrassing and voices inside the party promised to veto any new party leader that wasn't a woman.

So, for reasons that can be debated but ultimately justified by the logic of the involved parties, the number of potential candidates grew smaller. Thanks to the principle of equality reaching into the cabinet, there had been several female Social Democratic cabinet members, but most were too controversial, had no profile and no internal support or weren't interested (such as European Commissioner Margot Wallström, Minister of Foreign Aid Carin Jämtin and Minister of Infrastructure Ulrica Messing).

The party was left with Sahlin, who initially led the government big thanks to general ineptness such as the Minister of Trade resigning after 8 days due to being an upper class douchebag who avoided taxes and unpopular reforms on unemployment benefits. However, after she was forced by party bosses to accept the Left Party into a pre-election coalition in order to dilute the influence of the party's right wing and the Greens which wasn't exactly showing strong leadership as well as a botched budget alternative presented in the spring of 2010, the right-wing Alliance managed to eke out a win with a bigger margin than 2006 (but losing their majority thanks to the Sweden Democrats entering the Riksdag).

So, we're back to where we were in the beginning of this post - the Social Democrats finding a new leader. Again, no one stepped up, even though the calls for a woman somehow had disappeared - being leader of a diverse party and becoming the candidate for Prime Minister is an intense job, and again, few could unite the party. The result was Håkan Juholt.

Håkan Juholt wasn't exactly a backbencher, being Chairman of the Riksdag's Committee on Defense, but he wasn't known to most people. He was charismatic, folksy as f*** and somewhat left-populist, trying to make child poverty an election issue, but also turned out to be completely out of his depth - flip-flopping thrice on an intervention in Libya and making a huge gaffe at the major defense politics conference in Sweden (his area of expertise!). His choice for Spokesman for Financial Affairs, Tommy Waidelich, was also bizarrely incompetent.

He was finally brought down by a pseudo-scandal involving his Riksdag-provided apartment and kinda maybe having taken out too much allowance for it - the icing on the cake, especially as intra-party resentments were being awakened. Juholt resigned after 10 months in office at a press conference in a shopping center in his home town of Oskarshamn.

At its nadir, the Social Democrats had only 25% in the polls, trailing the Moderates by 10 points. When Juholt resigned, the party board managed to convince the head of the Metalworkers' Union Stefan Löfven to become party leader.

Löfven turned out to be stable, moderate and sane, appealing to the median voter, but also a man of the people from the countryside and not a scandal-ridden weak aging granola girl who speaks like a kindergarten teacher in slow-motion nor a klutz surrounded by idiots. This alone brought the Social Democrats back into the lead.

Personally, I think that Reinfeldt's realignment is partly overstated - many Swedes were still closer to the Social Democrats, but were disillusioned by the Persson cabinet, didn't want to vote for Sahlin or the Left Party and detested the idea of Håkan Juholt as Prime Minister. Meanwhile, Reinfeldt's and his cabinet's general competence kept the government alive, well and stable. When the incumbents had a credible opposition, they couldn't come up with new ideas and started to lose control of the situation, especially thanks to the minor parties becoming increasingly irrelevant. At the same time, a couple of events (a pseudo-scandal concerning a private elderly care provider and a disastrous PISA score) brought an increasing sense of malaise, especially as unemployment is still very high (above 8%).

Fredrik Reinfeldt and Anders Borg aren't enough anymore to counter all these factors working against them. Their last chance is the presentation of the spring budget and shadow budgets in May, which also hosts the EP election. If they still trail by over 10% in the summer, it's very hard to see how they can win.

What would happen then? That's for another post.

[Tayya]

Personally, I think that Reinfeldt's realignment is partly overstated - many Swedes were still closer to the Social Democrats, but were disillusioned by the Persson cabinet, didn't want to vote for Sahlin or the Left Party and detested the idea of Håkan Juholt as Prime Minister. Meanwhile, Reinfeldt's and his cabinet's general competence kept the government alive, well and stable. When the incumbents had a credible opposition, they couldn't come up with new ideas and started to lose control of the situation, especially thanks to the minor parties becoming increasingly irrelevant. At the same time, a couple of events (a pseudo-scandal concerning a private elderly care provider and a disastrous PISA score) brought an increasing sense of malaise, especially as unemployment is still very high (above 8%).

Fredrik Reinfeldt and Anders Borg aren't enough anymore to counter all these factors working against them. Their last chance is the presentation of the spring budget and shadow budgets in May, which also hosts the EP election. If they still trail by over 10% in the summer, it's very hard to see how they can win.

What would happen then? That's for another post.

Typically, unemployment above 8% suffices to bring down any government. Dare to elaborate a bit more on the economic situation?

Thanks for this highly informative post. I am looking forward to the next one!

I'm not an economist, but part of it is due to the usual factors (heavy industry closing down, entry-level jobs disappearing) but it's also due to the Public Employment Service being useless and not working as well as schools not doing enough to facilitate employment.

[Tayya]

Tayya's analysis is very good. Though I don't agree about people in general being closer to the Social Democrats and just going centre-right because of dislike for Persson/Sahlin/Juholt, that would suggest swing-voters have consistent political values, while the truth is they're about as consistent as jelly.

I'd also like to add that one of the problems the Alliance is currently having is their general arrogance and laziness towards the current electoral winds. Back in '10 there was a real fighting spirit to turn the popular opinion around, this time they just seem to lean back and expect another huge turn-around happening again, just because it did last time. 

Thanks. I figured that part would be the most controversial, but there definitely is a bunch of voters who could identify with Reinfeldt's "New Workers' Party" and not Bo Lundgren's Moderates Classic. It's as much style as it is substance, of course, if not more.

[Tayya]

A gem I'd like to share.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQakZce3GhQ

From Wikipedia:

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"A dynamism of opposites in the earlier so homogenous Swedish society, a surface of friction does appear but this peaceful dynamism of opposites that, in my view, means much to vitalise the Swedish society" - Then-Prime Minister Carl Bildt

"Hello. Now I think that we together in this room should sing "We Shall Overcome"." - Minister of Immigration Birgit Friggebo

"You'll never succeed through shouting." - Then-Prime Minister Carl Bildt

[Tayya]

It's very strange to see Bildt, usually the one in charge of every situation he puts himself in, so nervous and clearly out of his depth as in the clip. It's clear he doesn't at all know what to do or how to handle the situation.

In other notes, the government today presented a proposal to limit class sizes in schools. A decent proposal, but unfortunately blatantly stolen from the opposition.

[Tayya]

So, the government just announced that they are scrapping the planned cuts in student grants...

Which is okay. Annie Lööf calling it "good and important" is not okay.

Regarding the policy discussion, policy is part of the reason but there's definitely more style than substance behind the government's deficit and the gap will definitely close to single digits by the summer.

[Tayya]

So to sum up this very long discussion, a centre-right voter from Stockholm Business School doesn't understand why the government is unpopular and a centre-left voter from a place that votes 20 percentage points more left than the country as a whole doesn't think there's anything people find controversial about the Swedish left's policy position... C'mon really.

Good observation...

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I wonder what will happen with the minor parties' votes if the Alliance is still down about 10 points by summer. Wouldn't be surprised if the tactical voters abandon the Titanic and head back to the Moderates. Would be interesting - unfortunately probably in the Chinese sense.

[Tayya]

Good news for the right: A new poll (conducted by SIFO) shows the gap closing. Both C and KD land above 4%.

Bad news for the right: The last SIFO poll was the government's worst February poll (with C at 2.8%, a very unlikely result and way below average) and while the new poll is better for them than most others, they're still down by more than 10%. If a single poll is to be trusted, a two-week-old poll had the gap at almost 20%, which probably hasn't closed as much by then. This poll is therefore likely mostly a fluke.

Apparantly, the Feminist Initiative got 1.4% in the poll, as the high number for "Others" caused SIFO to react and break down the "other parties"' numbers. They are probably partially responsible for the Left Party's downturn (-1.9%). The party has seen an increase in membership lately, but will probably only serve to split the left parties' numbers, especially if the gap between the blocs doesn't decrease further.

There is an outside chance they could surge for the EP elections, but for once their party list doesn't contain Gudrun Schyman (the party's one-woman show and a former V leader) and instead their leading name is Soraya Post, a Roma woman who's primarily known as a Roma activist.

[Tayya]

Is F! getting into parliament a real possibility?

I doubt it, to be honest. I still haven't gotten an explanation for why anyone should vote for them rather than V - they're basically the same party, with the same leader even. The only F! voter I know supports them because she thinks S hates immigrants and V is tainted by their cooperation with S.

Because for an increasing amount of people, what counts is how many times you say "I'm a feminist and an anti-racist!". FI happens to do that a lot. And if you don't vote for them you're not feminist or anti-racist enough, so you're a Nazi.

[Tayya]

I'd also agree with most of it. In regards to the party leaders, I think Reinfeldt will be replaced with Minister of Infrastructure Catharina Elmsäter-Svärd (Hillevi Engström would be too left-wing on women's issues). Birgitta Ohlsson will indeed be the new Liberal leader, and will possibly help a progressive social agenda come through paid with restrictive economic reforms (I don't think S+V+MP will have a majority). Göran Hägglund has no successor until Ebba Busch or Ella Bohlin have enough experience. However, I'm going out on a limb and say that Annie Lööf will stay on - the Centre Party has invested too much in her, and she won't leave freely, meaning that booting her will lead to havoc.

I predict a result looking somewhat like this. Apply a margin of error of 3% for S and M, 1.5% for MP, V and SD, and 1% for the others:

Social Democrats: 33.0%
Greens: 8.0%
Left: 7.5%

Moderates: 24%
Liberals: 6%
Centre: 4.5%
Christian Democrats: 4.5%

Sweden Democrats: 9%
Feminist Initiative: 2.5%
Others: 1%

So, let's see what we can do about the cabinet. I've added a percentage score indicating how certain I am about a person. Some scores are split into certainty of being in the cabinet and certainty of holding my predicted cabinet portfolio.

Prime Minister - Stefan Löfven (S)
Leader of the Social Democrats, former Chairman of the Metalworkers' Union 100%
Minister for EU Affairs - Åsa Westlund (S)
MEP 67%
  
Minister for Finance - Magdalena Andersson (S)
Shadow Minister for Finance, former State Secretary and Deputy Executive of the Tax Agency 100%
Deputy Minister for Finance and Minister for Financial Markets -  Per Bolund (MP)
Spokesperson for Financial Affairs, MP, former Stockholm Commissioner in Opposition 95%/60%
Minister for Regional Affairs - Anna-Caren Sätherberg (S)
Spokesperson for Regional Affairs, Åre City Council Minority Leader 25%

Minister for Foreign Affairs - Margot Wallström (S)
Former Minister for Social Affairs, former European Commissioner 50%/40%
Minister for Trade - Anna Johansson (S)
Gothenburg Deputy Mayor 60%/30%
Minister for Foreign Aid - Urban Ahlin (S)
MP, Deputy Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee 75%/30%

Minister for Justice - Morgan Johansson (S)
MP, Former Minister for Public Health 85%/70%
Minister for Migration Affairs - Ardalan Shekarabi (S)
MP, Former Social Democratic Youth League Chairman 67%/50%

Minister for Defense - Peter Hultqvist (S)
MP, Chairman of the Defense Committee, former Executive Chair of Borlänge 95%

Minister for Commerce - Mikael Damberg (S)
MP, Social Democratic Parliamentary Group Leader 100%/75%
  
Minister for Education - Gustav Fridolin (MP)
MP, Green Party Spokesperson 100%/70%
Minister for Schools - Ibrahim Baylan (S)
MP, Former Minister for Schools, Deputy Chairman of the Education Committee 85%/65%
Minister for Equality, Democracy and Consumer Affairs - Anders Wallner (MP)
Party Secretary 35%

Minister for Rural Affairs - Matilda Ernkrans (S)
MP, Chairwoman of the Environment and Agriculture Committee 70%

Minister for the Environment - Åsa Romson (MP)
MP, Green Party Spokesperson 100%

Minister for Infrastructure - Carin Jämtin (S)
Party Secretary, former Minister for Foreign Aid, former Stockholm Minority Leader 100%/30%
Minister for Housing - Veronica Palm (S)
MP, Deputy Chairman of the Civil Affairs Committee 100%

Minister for Social Affairs - Tomas Eneroth (S)
MP, Former State Secretary, Deputy Chairman of the Social Security Committee 100%/45%
Minister for Health Care and Public Health - Lena Hallengren (S)
MP, Former Deputy Minister for Education, Deputy Chairman of the Social Affairs Committee 60%/35%
Minister for Social Security - Gunvor G. Ericson (MP)
MP, Spokesperson for Social Security, Deputy Parliamentary Group Leader, former Södermanland Region Commissioner 40%

Minister for Employment - Tobias Baudin (S)
Deputy Chairman of the Swedish Trade Union Confederation 60%

Minister for Culture - Ylva Johansson (S)
MP, former Deputy Minister for Social Affairs, former Minister for Schools 70%/30%

24 ministers, 12 men and 12 women, 19 Social Democrats, 5 Greens. 2 with foreign background, 1 LGBT.

[Tayya]

Won't the Greens demand some more prominent portfolios?

Romson has Environment locked up, Fridolin wants Education, and they have few others that can compete for Foreign Affairs or Justice. Defense is a no-no considering their pacifist views. If former spokesperson Maria Wetterstrand could be convinced to return to politics she'd be a solid candidate for Foreign Affairs, but Margot Wallström would be even more solid - especially if she wants it - and Wetterstrand has her kids in Finland 50% of the time and probably doesn't want the job.

[Tayya]

@Swedish Cheese: Your knowledge of C is obviously superior to mine, and the fact that I live in Stockholm might not help in that regard. I'd agree that Jonsson (parliamentary Group Leader) would win - Anna-Karin Hatt (Minister for IT and Energy) seems to me like an insider without any grassroots support. It would be a nice change to see Eskil Erlandsson (Minister for Rural Affairs) win, though.

I put 24 because I felt MP would want 5 cabinet posts because C, FP or KD never got that many and they would have to score better than I think they'll do (MP overperforms in polls) to gain 5/22.

As is apparent by now, our predictions are very similar. This is possibly because of great minds thinking alike, possibly because this is currently the most likely outcome and possibly because we steal from each other.

[Tayya]

So here's a bold and brave prediction for the next government:

Minister of Finance - Magdalena Andersson (S)

Is she going to be a strong or weak MoF? How does she "rate" compared to Anders Borg?

She'll do fine enough, especially compared to the other Shadow Ministers for Finance (Tommy Waidelich? EEK!). She'll probably have a large influence in the cabinet since Stefan Löfven is more of a consensus-builder than a ram-through-my-opinions type of leader.

[Tayya]

Any chance the Alliance for Sweden might win again.  Although not too familiar with Swedish politics, here in Canada many on the left like point to Nordic Countries as examples we should follow and I like to point out 4 of the 5 Nordic countries have centre-right governments and since Denmark is likely to swing right in 2015, if Sweden sticks with the centre-right that would mean the right governs all Nordic Countries.  Considering how Sweden is doing better than most European countries, I would think that should help the governing party, mind you where I live we use first past the post rather than proportional representation thus coalitions are rare and majority governments (even if the winning party doesn't get over 50% which they usually don't) are the norm.

Yes. But it's no bigger than the Alliance's poll numbers (~36%) and shrinking every day.

Some say the "point of no return" is now in May-June when they went from down 5% to down 1 % to up 1% in 2010. I'm more generous, I think they have until August. If they aren't within 5% when the schools start in mid-August they're practically doomed unless the opposition is caught in a major scandal or suddenly become disastrous. Neither is looking all that likely.

Even if the Alliance won't win, they could technically hang on if the Sweden Democrats vote "present" in the government formation vote - there wasn't any vote last time since everyone just accepted that the Alliance minority had won - though PM Reinfeldt would tarnish his reputation big time and it would create an absolute havoc among several segments of the populace.

[Tayya]

Any chance the Alliance for Sweden might win again.  Although not too familiar with Swedish politics, here in Canada many on the left like point to Nordic Countries as examples we should follow and I like to point out 4 of the 5 Nordic countries have centre-right governments and since Denmark is likely to swing right in 2015, if Sweden sticks with the centre-right that would mean the right governs all Nordic Countries.  Considering how Sweden is doing better than most European countries, I would think that should help the governing party, mind you where I live we use first past the post rather than proportional representation thus coalitions are rare and majority governments (even if the winning party doesn't get over 50% which they usually don't) are the norm.

Yes. But it's no bigger than the Alliance's poll numbers (~36%) and shrinking every day.

Some say the "point of no return" is now in May-June when they went from down 5% to down 1 % to up 1% in 2010. I'm more generous, I think they have until August. If they aren't within 5% when the schools start in mid-August they're practically doomed unless the opposition is caught in a major scandal or suddenly become disastrous. Neither is looking all that likely.

Even if the Alliance won't win, they could technically hang on if the Sweden Democrats vote "present" in the government formation vote - there wasn't any vote last time since everyone just accepted that the Alliance minority had won - though PM Reinfeldt would tarnish his reputation big time and it would create an absolute havoc among several segments of the populace.

I would say that even if they're 4-5% from the opposition in the August their chance of victory is still close to nonexistent unless there's a scandal or major campaign ****-up by the opposition. They need to be nearly dead even by then to have a chance to win on their own merits, IMO.

Latest Expressen/Demoskop poll:

Left - 8,7% (+0,5)
Social Democrat - 32,0% (-0,8)
Green - 10,0% (-0,5)

Centre - 4,3% (+0,6)
Liberal People's - 6,0% (+0,1)
Moderate - 23,0% (-1,4)
Christian Democrat - 3,9% (+0,2)

Sweden Democrats - 8,2% (-0,3)

Feminist Initiative - 3,0% (+2,2)

Alliance - 36,8% (-0,5)
Red-Greens - 51,0% (-0,9)

Like their French counterparts, I don't trust Team Red/Green on holding a slim lead. I guess I'm cautious by nature. But especially if the opposition lets their guard down, they could be in trouble.

[Tayya]

The big problem is that none of the proposed scenarios if the Riksdag is hung seem easily doable. Thus, we can predict that chaos will happen.

Also, I found out today that I'm going to be a precinct worker. I'm excited, though sad that I'll probably miss most of my workplace's Election Night party.

[Tayya]

I don't see Alliance minority as viable either. I think the most likely outcome then is S-MP, if they have enough votes for that to make sense. If F gets in they'll probably be included but I don't think F will get in.

So otherwise a grand coalition sort of like you have right now in Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Austria, and Belgium.

My question is how do those work out as I know in the English speaking world they would be DOA considering how much the right and left hate each other.  But it seems in Europe there isn't the same animosity you see in the English speaking countries.

A coalition between the Social Democrats and Moderates would probably not work very well since it would either (temporarily, at least) include a demoted Fredrik Reinfeldt, which would not be appreciated by Stefan Löfven who would easily be outmaneuvered, or have the second largest party's leader as Prime Minister. If I was Stefan Löfven I'd refuse both alternatives.

[Tayya]

A grand coalition is unlikely, yeah. I don't think it's totally impossible and it's more realistic now than it has been most of the time.

I agree with Tayya though that there is no good and easily workable scenario if it's a hung parliament. My FP friends pointed out to me that they would have to change leadership and stuff before they could join any such government as well.

Indeed, and FP needs to start to prepare the grassroots basically immediately after the election if they would want to enter an S-led government. While the left-liberals could probably swallow supporting Stefan Löfven if he's governing from the centre, we have to remember that FP - like most Swedish parties - is a wide tent in its own way. They're probably going to elect a guy this year who went campaigning for John McCain in 2008, after all.

[Tayya]

It should be remembered that it's only one poll, and the first that has shown such a steep drop for S and V. Let's see what the next Ipsos and Novus (considered reliable) polls say, and especially May's SCB megapoll.

[Tayya]

I have to agree with Antonio here, the shift to the right isn't exactly new - the process basically started when Palme was shot and the economy was in the gutter in the early 90's. Even the Left Party campaigning on ending tax-paid profits for venture capitalists isn't even close to the employee funds of the 70's (basically a proposal that would force companies to use a share of their profits to buy company shares for unions). Yes, there is radicalism left in V and MP, but it's not what they're campaigning on.

There is a distinct lack of social conservatism throughout both the left and right, though, with even the Christian Democrats accepting liberal abortion laws, for example. Economically, the farthest right-wingers of Timbro (our Cato Institute) would feel right at home with Mitt Romney as Prime Minister.

[Tayya]

I have to agree with Antonio here, the shift to the right isn't exactly new - the process basically started when Palme was shot and the economy was in the gutter in the early 90's. Even the Left Party campaigning on ending tax-paid profits for venture capitalists isn't even close to the employee funds of the 70's (basically a proposal that would force companies to use a share of their profits to buy company shares for unions). Yes, there is radicalism left in V and MP, but it's not what they're campaigning on.

There is a distinct lack of social conservatism throughout both the left and right, though, with even the Christian Democrats accepting liberal abortion laws, for example. Economically, the farthest right-wingers of Timbro (our Cato Institute) would feel right at home with Mitt Romney as Prime Minister.

That last sentence is hardly true. I was with a Timbro group in the US during the election and most people supported Obama.

Hmm. I know at least one Swedish pro-Republican on the right (Roland Poirier Martinsson) but I did think there would bemore. I did write "economically", though, and some in the pro-Obama right wing might reconsider without the Tea Party and social conservatism.

[Tayya]

Man, I can't believe they accidentally projected the results of that one ward in southeastern Stockholm as the national results! Could you believe that, the Greens second? The Moderates at 13.6%? Both the Feminists and the Sweden Democrats getting in? Hah!

...seriously, yikes. I'd give so much money to have been a fly on the wall at the Moderate leadership meeting last night.