NV-04: Tarkanian up by 6 over Horsford

[krazen1211]

http://media.lasvegassun.com/media/pdfs/blogs/documents/2012/07/12/tarrancepoll.pdf


Tarkanian 47
Horsford 41



Wow! Heck and Amodei are likely to snooze to victory of course, and Romney is certainly poised to compete in Nevada with this performance in the 4th Congressional district.

[Miles]

Except you forgot to mention that the Tarrance group is a Republican firm, of course.

[Vosem]

Except you forgot to mention that the Tarrance group is a Republican firm, of course.

Still, this seems to be an interesting race, at the very least. Somebody (maybe it was Nate Silver or the folks at DKE, I can't recall) looked at internals and found they average 6% more favorable to the candidate they're done for, and I've generally found subtracting 6% from the candidate the internal is being done for gets you reasonable results. In this case a 41-41 tie...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If there was ever a district that would be susceptible to a hispanic democratic underpolling, it would be this district for obvious reasons.

[krazen1211]

Except you forgot to mention that the Tarrance group is a Republican firm, of course.

Still, this seems to be an interesting race, at the very least. Somebody (maybe it was Nate Silver or the folks at DKE, I can't recall) looked at internals and found they average 6% more favorable to the candidate they're done for, and I've generally found subtracting 6% from the candidate the internal is being done for gets you reasonable results. In this case a 41-41 tie...

Brian Sandoval and George W. Bush, to name a couple, were successful in winning this district.

[Miles]

Except you forgot to mention that the Tarrance group is a Republican firm, of course.

Still, this seems to be an interesting race, at the very least. Somebody (maybe it was Nate Silver or the folks at DKE, I can't recall) looked at internals and found they average 6% more favorable to the candidate they're done for, and I've generally found subtracting 6% from the candidate the internal is being done for gets you reasonable results. In this case a 41-41 tie...

Brian Sandoval and George W. Bush, to name a couple, were successful in winning this district.

Harry Reid also carried it and I'm guessing Kate Marshall, Ross Miller and Catherine Cortez Masto would have as well, to name a few others.

[krazen1211]

http://americanactionnetwork.org/sites/default/files/NV-04.pdf

Danny Tarkanian leads Steven Horsford on the ballot 46% to 35%.

[Brittain33]

POS poll (R)

http://americanactionnetwork.org/sites/default/files/NV-04.pdf

Danny Tarkanian leads Steven Horsford on the ballot 46% to 35%.

[krazen1211]

POS poll (R)

http://americanactionnetwork.org/sites/default/files/NV-04.pdf

Danny Tarkanian leads Steven Horsford on the ballot 46% to 35%.

Yes, at a guess the best cherry picked day of a multi day poll. But Horsford seems a bit lazy in fundraising.

[Niemeyerite]

Tarrance Group (R) + Democrats underpoll in NV = Toss-up to Lean Dem race.

[Miles]

Tarrance Group (R) + Democrats underpoll in NV = Toss-up to Lean Dem race.

Tarkanian also has better name recognition.