Nate: Don't Pawn Your Lisa Murkowski Gear Just Yet

[cinyc]

I think so. Obviously Murkowski going third party will help.  As Joe Miller proved during the primary, it doesn't take a lot of money to compete in such a cheap media market.  Miller had a number of weird incidents during the primary and, while no Sharron Angle, could also be more gaffe-prone than Mike Lee over in Utah or whatevsky.

I think it's worth keeping on your watch list, just like I've maintained states like Indiana and Delaware should be kept on your watch list.

Before you comment, at least for the people who actually wish to seriously opine, I strongly suggest reading this and watching this.

1) It's not one cheap media market, it's actually 3 separate, albeit cheap, media markets - Anchorage, Juneau and Fairbanks.  It's a big state.  The Juneau and Fairbanks stations do tend to simulcast the Anchorage newscasts, IIRC, though.

2) McAdams is the mayor of Sitka.  Now, I have nothing against Sitka (never been there), but go look at a map.  Find Sitka.  Notice how far removed from the rest of the state it is.  It's practically Washington State for the folks in Fairbanks.  It might help him win the Southeastern panhandle - but Democrats usually do well in the Southeast, anyway.  So he might take HD-2 if Sitka outvotes Petersburg and Wrangell and the bush-lite HD-5.  Will even Republican-leaning Ketchikan vote for him?  Debatable.  McAdams is no Mark Beigich - the former mayor of the state's largest city (with a little less than half the state's population) and a member of a famous Alaskan political family.

3) If anything, McAdams would be overshadowed and it would become a two-way race between Murkowski and Miller.   The Democrats might be better off if McAdams steps down and let Murkowski run in his stead.  But that would probably piss off most of the remaining Republicans willing to vote for a party-switching Murkowski.

[Lunar]

Yeah Cinyc, you won't see me arguing that the fundamentals of this race in any way, shape, or form favor of the Democratic candidate.

[Sam Spade]

PPP is polling Alaska this weekend (yes, I know, Alaska polling sucks). They've tweeted about it:

"Dems should not be rooting for Murkowski third party run...Crist like effect pulling more from McAdams than Miller"

So no, he shouldn't be. He could very well end up with 10-15% of the vote in a three-way contest.

The only two rules of Alaska polling that I've found after all these years is the following:

1) It sucks.
2) You have to add a few points to the Republican (at minimum - sometimes it's more) to get to the correct result.

[Smash255]

I highly doubt it, but might be interesting to see how ugly the mud slinging between Miller and Murkowski get its already well past all shades of ugly.

[Niemeyerite]

Well, a new PPP poll says McAdams has a chance! 47% for Miller and 39% for him.
in a 3 way race, it's miller 38%, murkowski 34% and mcadams 22%.
so yes, he MUST be on your "watch list".

[Sam Spade]

Alaska Libertarian Party won't swap in Murkowski.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/41590.html

So, basically it's down to winning the primary.  Write-in campaign is the other option, but let's be realistic here...

[Lunar]

makes sense, Murkowski running on the Libertarian line wouldn't make much sense ideologically

[tpfkaw]

I'm keeping my yellow avatar.

[bgwah]

It's too bad the AK Independence Party isn't on the ballot.

Still, a write-in got 18% of the vote in the 1998 gubernatorial election...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

A write-in campaign could be the best possible news for McAdams.

[SvenssonRS]

A write-in campaign could be the best possible news for McAdams.

Please, please, please stop believing he'll ever have a chance in hell of winning under any circumstance this year.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

A write-in campaign could be the best possible news for McAdams.

Please, please, please stop believing he'll ever have a chance in hell of winning under any circumstance this year.

Notice I say nothing about him winning the seat, I'm saying that it would be good news for him.

[redcommander]

I think we also need to recognize the possibility that absentee voters could carry Murkowski over the top in the primary.

[tmthforu94]

I think we also need to recognize the possibility that absentee voters could carry Murkowski over the top in the primary.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't a lot of these absentee voters vote as long as a couple weeks ago, when Murkowksi was seen as the easy favorite? I'm certainly not giving hope yet. If she just got 55% of the absentee votes she'll win, by my estimations.

[cinyc]

I think we also need to recognize the possibility that absentee voters could carry Murkowski over the top in the primary.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't a lot of these absentee voters vote as long as a couple weeks ago, when Murkowksi was seen as the easy favorite? I'm certainly not giving hope yet. If she just got 55% of the absentee votes she'll win, by my estimations.

Not necessarily.  There are absentees and there are absentees.  No doubt there are many absentees cast in the weeks leading up to the election.   But absentee ballots can be cast on election day in places like Anchorage International Airport or Prudhoe Bay, which (in some cases) stock ballots for all 40 House Districts so those who are away from home can vote.   It's Alaska.  There are many people working odd shifts far from home.

In the past 3 major federal Republican primary elections, absentees broke very slightly (less than a point) against the incumbent when compared to the precinct level vote.  We'll see if that trend continues.

[Lunar]

Politico 2010 A1:


Dems ready to stand by McAdams

[Beet]

Lunar, the Democratic Party is so smart, that's exactly what has gotten them to where they are today. About to
(1) suffer historic losses
(2) to the most extreme right wing Republican party in living memory
(3) just two years after the most failed Republican President in living memory.

[Dgov]

Lunar, the Democratic Party is so smart, that's exactly what has gotten them to where they are today. About to
(1) suffer historic losses
(2) to the most extreme right wing Republican party in living memory
(3) just two years after the most failed Republican President in living memory.

Gee, maybe pushing a leftist agenda on a country that doesn't want it wasn't such a good idea.

[Sewer]

Lunar, the Democratic Party is so smart, that's exactly what has gotten them to where they are today. About to
(1) suffer historic losses
(2) to the most extreme right wing Republican party in living memory
(3) just two years after the most failed Republican President in living memory.

Gee, maybe pushing a leftist agenda on a country that doesn't want it wasn't such a good idea.

What leftist agenda?

[Dgov]

Lunar, the Democratic Party is so smart, that's exactly what has gotten them to where they are today. About to
(1) suffer historic losses
(2) to the most extreme right wing Republican party in living memory
(3) just two years after the most failed Republican President in living memory.

Gee, maybe pushing a leftist agenda on a country that doesn't want it wasn't such a good idea.

What leftist agenda?

The one you guys have been complaining hasn't been liberal enough since 2009. 

[DrScholl]

What leftist agenda?

Most of the people who use the word leftist have no idea what it means. More understanding of the political spectrum is needed.

[Eraserhead]

Wow, Scott McAdams is big ol' bastard, isn't he?

[Beet]

Perhaps Dgov is right. Perhaps the stimulus, health care, it was all a mistake. I really don't know any more.

[Lunar]

Perhaps Dgov is right. Perhaps the stimulus, health care, it was all a mistake. I really don't know any more.

You're such a dramamama Beet!  You can't give up on Keynesian economics because of some dismal poll numbers!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't think I've seen anymore sore over losing a primary election than Beet. Even the Deaniacs got over it in a few months.