Vatican City 2013 papal election

[Keystone Phil]

ABC News reports that the Pope will fly by helicopter from The Vatican to the Pope's summer residence outside of Rome. Very Nixonesque with the chopper.

[MaxQue]

ABC News reports that the Pope will fly by helicopter from The Vatican to the Pope's summer residence outside of Rome. Very Nixonesque with the chopper.

I read that one week or two ago.

[Keystone Phil]

ABC News reports that the Pope will fly by helicopter from The Vatican to the Pope's summer residence outside of Rome. Very Nixonesque with the chopper.

I read that one week or two ago.

I'm sure you did. I'm just reading today's article on how everything will go down tomorrow.

[minionofmidas]

O'Brien even made it to the top half of the first page of BILD, with a picture! (Because they care about the papal election because Ratzinger is German...)

[Platypus]

Azinze for three of four years, and then a young Italian, or straight to the young Italian?

I think the idea of a latin american pope is possible, but north american unlikely.

[Paleobrazilian]

Azinze for three of four years, and then a young Italian, or straight to the young Italian?

I think the idea of a latin american pope is possible, but north american unlikely.

Arinze is over 80 years old, so he cannot vote and is basically unelectable.

If they're looking for a "transitional Pope" yet agan, this time from a Third World country, Cardinals Hummes (Brazil) and Bergoglio (Argentina) would be the strongest possibilities, IMO.

But keep in mind that such a scenario is hugely unlikely. Also remember that Bergoglio asked his fellow cardinals to stop voting for him during the 2005 Conclave, according to apocryphal vote counts leaked over the last years.

My money is still on a 15-20 papacy to come. Still, it's wide open for now. I can see some 10 ways this might play out...

[Paleobrazilian]

Pope Benedict XVI has now officially resigned. The sede vacante has started.

The name of Gianfranco Ravasi has been gaining a lot of steam over the last few days, as he's reportedly the hand-picked candidate of Cardinal Bertone. Ravasi represents the "moderate" faction of the Italian clergy, and is seen as the strongest theologian in the conclave (like Benedict XVI in 2005). He is the Prefect of the Council for Culture, which gained importance during Benedict's term. He's also a tweeting cardinal with an intriguing number of followers. Keep in mind, though, that no Cardinal-Deacon has been elected Pope over the last 400 years. Plus, Ravasi is a career "bureaucrat" - he's never held a position as archbishop, and that may be a minus for him.

His main rival, for now, is Cardinal Scola, who's been the "weak favorite" for now - he represents the mainstream conservatives in the Italian Church, and is connected to Berlusconi's political movement. He's the Archbishop of Milan, and has solid theological background as well, holding opinions that match those of Benedict XVI. He's probably the favorite of Cardinal Sodano (the non-voting Dean of the College of Cardinals), and maybe of the Pope Emeritus as well (even though Benedict XVI recently sent a letter to Ravasi praising his job, what some saw as a disguised endorsement).

Oddly, Ravasi wanted Scola's job back in 2010, and asked the job to Cardinal Bertone. However, Benedict XVI was set on Scola for that Archdiocese, so Bertone offered Ravasi the next best thing: a promotion to Prefect of the Council for Culture, and his creation as a Cardinal. Ravasi took the offer.

I feel this shaping up to something similar as the October 1978 conclave (at least according to the leaked rumors). It had a strong conservative Italian (Cardinal Siri) and a strong "moderate-liberal" Italian (Cardinal Benelli) facing off. Benelli started strongly, with support from many Cardinals from Third World countries, but not many votes from Europeans and conservative Italians. Halfway through the conclave, Benelli came just a few votes short of being elected, but in the deciding moment, the "conservative coalition" decided they'd not have Benelli as their Pope. This forced the Cardinals to compromise, and the power brokers suggested a long shot Polish cardinal, who fastly gained traction, being elected on the 8th ballot.

[Obamanation]

Still rooting for Schoenborn...

[Franknburger]

Still rooting for Schoenborn...

Nope. Benedict's retreat is a strong sign for juvenilisation, modernisation and change. With this sign, you don't go for somebody who is essentially Benedict 17.0. Schoenborn is being built up to scare in certain factions (though I don't have any idea who exactly is trying to scare in whom), but he will never make it.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

His main rival, for now, is Cardinal Scola, who's been the "weak favorite" for now - he represents the mainstream conservatives in the Italian Church, and is connected to Berlusconi's political movement.

...oh. Crap. I kind of not-disliked him.

Probably rooting (realistically) for Ravasi at this point. Schönborn under a better star...

[SPQR]

Any cardinal close to Bertone is close also to Berlusconi.

[Franknburger]

Trying to read the tea-leaves:

Most of the traditional networks seem to be divided. The (Italian-dominated) Curia is described as being split into a "northern" (Scola) and a "southern" faction, whereby the southern faction appears to be primarily united by opposition against Scola and Bertone.
Similar splits exist among the congregations - Dominicans, as other more conservative congregations, rooting for Schoenborn, Franciscans preferring a more moderate candidate like Ravani.

When looking at the money, there is Opus Dei, who only have one Cardinal (Juan Thorne, Peru), but tons of influence in Italy, Spain and Latin America. They are still quite of a 'dark horse'. Italy's "Communione e Liberazione", howeever, seems to support Scola.
 
The Catholic Church in Germany is comparatively well-financed and, as a main financial contributor to the Vatican's activity, influencing more than just the vote of their 6 Cardinals. Cardinal Meissner, head of the German Bishops' congregation, is an outspoken enemy of Bertone. He has stated several times that the Church needs strong dual leadership (the Johannes Paul II / Ratzinger model, i.e. a 'representative' pope backed up by a theologically strong  secretary). I guess that could mean they would initially support Ravani, but altimately aim at a deal that elects a 'compromise candidate', and has Ravani replacing Bertone.

Last but not least, there is ongoing rumour of a gay network within the Church's upper levels. We will most certainly not see a gay pope anytime soon, but such a network, which should support moderate candidates, could nevertheless be influential.

Benedict's main confidants in the Conclave are Schoenborn, Scola, Erdö (Hungary) and Oullet (Canada). Oullet is probably too right-wing to become elected. However, if Paleobrazilian's  analogy to the October 1978 conclave turns to reality, which I feel is anything but unlikely, Erdö could ultimately make it. Considering that he is the Head of the European Bishop's Congregation, he has so far kept suspiciously low profile ..

[Paleobrazilian]

That's EXACTLY what I've been thinking. Erdo has been my sleeper pick to win ever since this cycle begun. There are many circunstances that envolve him that remind those present when Cardinal Wojtyla became Pope John Paul II...

1- Both from Eastern Bloc countries that remained Catholic despite the communist regime.
2- Both were created Cardinals at a very young age, and despite being in the College of Cardinals for a decade before the conclave, were still among the youngest in the election.
3- 2 Cardinals with solid theological background.
4- Both seen as conservatives that can get along with most factions inside the Church.
5- Both were seen as rising stars a few years before elected, but lost the spotlight right before the conclave, in the middle of a battle between factions of the Italian Church.

Erdo is probably a bit more conservative than Wojtyla (he's an honorary doctor at an Opus Dei University), and I don't think he's got the "on-stage" talent John Paul II had. On his side, he's the President of the European Bishop's Confederation, so everyone knows him and the huge mass of European voters would probably be satisfied with him. Also, his Eastern Bloc curriculum might look good among Cardinals from the whole World. I really wouldn't be surprised if the deal breakers come up with his name if the conclave becames deadlocked after the 2nd day.

Another potential compromise candidates I see are Cardinal Scherer (a residential cardinal that goes along very well with the Curia), Cardinal Bagnasco (who's flying under the Bertone-Sodano/Ravasi-Scola battle, quietly building his Third Way status), maybe Cardinal Sandri, maybe even a huge underdog like the Archbishop of Colombo, or Cardinal Pell from Sydney,

[Franknburger]

That's EXACTLY what I've been thinking. Erdo has been my sleeper pick to win ever since this cycle begun.

Erdo is probably a bit more conservative than Wojtyla (he's an honorary doctor at an Opus Dei University).

Another point in his favour.

On his side, he's the President of the European Bishop's Confederation, so everyone knows him and the huge mass of European voters would probably be satisfied with him. I really wouldn't be surprised if the deal breakers come up with his name when the conclave becomes deadlocked after the 2nd day.

Corrected

Another potential compromise candidates I see are Cardinal Scherer (a residential cardinal that goes along very well with the Curia), Cardinal Bagnasco (who's flying under the Bertone-Sodano/Ravasi-Scola battle, quietly building his Third Way status), maybe Cardinal Sandri, maybe even a huge underdog like the Archbishop of Colombo, or Cardinal Pell from Sydney,

Scherer's name has been mentionned often and early, which is usually a bad sign. However, in principle it is time for a non-European pope, and Brazil has the largest non-European delegation. What are the rumours on your side of the ocean? To which extent could a Brazilian be able to mobilise support from Spanish-speaking Latin America?

[Platypus]

If Pell gets it, I don't know if I'd be proud or terrified

[Paleobrazilian]

Scherer's name has been mentionned often and early, which is usually a bad sign. However, in principle it is time for a non-European pope, and Brazil has the largest non-European delegation. What are the rumours on your side of the ocean? To which extent could a Brazilian be able to mobilise support from Spanish-speaking Latin America?

Scherer has been mentioned a few times by the local media, just like João Braz de Aviz. Scherer is well known and respected here in Brazil as a strong theological leader who's not shy about getting involved with local politics (like when he blasted our Supreme Court judges when they decided that the abortion of anencephalic fetuses was constitutional).  He has shown some cojones over the last few years, specially when he made an unpopular nomination for Dean of São Paulo's Pontifical Catholic University, and stood by it all the way, gaining support and respect from the Roman Curia.

He's also more conservative than most Brazilian bishops, as he's strongly opposed to the Liberation Theology that influences most of them - probably for this reason, he also recently lost the election to the presidency of Brazil's bishop conference to Cardinal Damasceno, the more liberal Archbishop of Aparecida. Still, he's modern enough to be seen usually taking the subway to go to work, walking around with his iPhone that he uses to tweet and facebook - he's got a fairly big number of followers on both social networks. All of this may make him appealing to the conclave voters: someone from South America who's lead one of the biggest Archdioceses in the World, who rejects the preachings of the left-wing Liberation Theology in favor of more traditional preachings, who's connected to Internet 2.0, who speaks a few idioms (including fluent Italian, I believe), and who's also got German ancestry.

Many bishops in Brazil seem to want Ravasi for Pope - it's been rumored that Damasceno and Magela will be voting for him. However, it's been said that Scherer, Hummes and Braz de Aviz will be voting Scola - who's well seen in the more conservative groups of our Church.

[Paleobrazilian]

If Pell gets it, I don't know if I'd be proud or terrified

Pell is probably the longest of the longshots being mentioned - specially after he discreetly criticized the Pope Emeritus yesterday for resigning. There are at least 10 candidates with bigger chances if the Scola-Ravasi deadlock indeed happens, but you never know.

[Tender Branson]

Here's an English AP article about our Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn:

EDITOR'S NOTE: As the Roman Catholic Church prepares to elect a successor to Pope Benedict XVI, The Associated Press is profiling key cardinals seen as "papabili" - contenders to the throne. In the secretive world of the Vatican, there is no way to know who is in the running, and history has yielded plenty of surprises. But these are the names that have come up time and again in speculation.

Today: Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn.

...

Austrian cardinal: a conservative open to reform

By GEORGE JAHN
Associated Press
Published: Saturday, Mar. 2, 2013 - 2:34 am



VIENNA -- Austrian Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn is a soft-spoken conservative who is ready to listen to those espousing reform. That profile that could appeal to fellow cardinals looking to elect a pontiff with widest-possible appeal to the world's 1 billion Catholics.

His nationality may be his biggest disadvantage: Electors may be reluctant to choose another German speaker as a successor to Benedict XVI.

A man of low tolerance for the child abuse scandals roiling the church, Schoenborn himself was elevated to the its upper echelons of the Catholic hierarchy after his predecessor resigned 18 years ago over accusations that he was a pedophile.

Multilingual and respected by Jews, Muslims and Orthodox Christians, Benedict XVI's friend and former pupil was one of the cardinal electors in the 2005 papal conclave that chose the German as head of the Catholic church. A scholar who is at home in the pulpit, Schoenborn also is well connected in the Vatican - and appears willing to make it his home, if reluctantly.

Asked if he would like to succeed Benedict on news of the pontiff's plan to step down, he said: "my heart is in Vienna, my heart is in Austria - but naturally with the whole Church as well."

Such reticence is not unusual for a prince of the church known for a quiet management style focused on steering the Austrian church around controversy.

That has not always been possible. The austere Schoenborn owed his own elevation to the scandal involving his predecessor, Hans Groer, who was accused of abusing young boys.

Appointed Vienna's archbishop in 1995, Schoenborn initially stayed silent. But he showed courage three years later, personally apologizing "for everything that my predecessors and other holders of church office committed against people in their trust."

In a measure of his dislike of confrontation, he fired his reform-minded vicar, Helmut Schueller, in 1998 by shoving a dismissal letter under Schueller's door.

Yet, while grappling with the pornography scandal roiling the church in 2005, he took on the Vatican.

"It's sad that it took so long to act," he said of Rome's reluctance to investigate the wrongdoing, saying later of the scandal: "The church is greater than its human weaknesses."

He went further than that as cases of sexual abuse continued rocking the church, calling for a re-examination of priestly celibacy in 2010 - only to roll back in typical style shortly after, by having his spokesman issue a denial that he was questioning the rule on priests not marrying.

While accepting the possibility of evolution, Schoenborn criticized certain "neo-Darwinian" theories as incompatible with Catholic teaching, writing in a 2005 New York Times editorial, that "any system of thought that denies or seeks to explain away the overwhelming evidence for design in biology is ideology, not science."

Ideologically, his tenure has been marked by a turn away from inner-church reform. Instead he has focused toward respect for Catholic dogma - while understanding those who fall by the wayside.

"It is not easy for the church to find the right path between the ... protection of marriage and family on the one hand and ... compassion with human failings," he said in 2004, alluding to church opposition to - but his personal understanding of - divorce. His audience, at a funeral Mass for Austrian President Thomas Klestil, included both his widow and his divorced wife.

Later, however, he made clear that he backed the sanctity of marriage, telling an Austrian weekly shortly after Benedict's resignation that its indissolubility "can be traced back to the instructions of Jesus" and thus could not be changed.

He spoke out about bending church dogma in response to pressure in the same interview, saying: "If Christ communicated a teaching that we believe is true and brings salvation to humanity, then nobody gains if that teaching is falsified, even if he were to gain in popularity by doing so."

Born Jan. 22, 1945, into an aristocratic Bohemian family, Schoenborn's destiny appeared to have been influenced by his heritage - 19 of his ancestors were priests, bishops or archbishops.

After joining the Dominican order in 1963, he was ordained to the priesthood in 1970 by Cardinal Franz Koenig. Like most Austrians, Schoenborn idolized Koenig for his social engagement and courage to speak out on controversial issues - but was initially eclipsed by Koenig's overwhelming personality.

In the late 1960s, when Koenig played tennis in Schoenborn's hometown of Schrunns, Schoenborn "always fought to be Koenig's ball-boy," said Schoenborn confidant Heinz Nussbaumer in a telling reflection of the later relationship between the two churchmen.

Because of Koenig's strong persona, Schoenborn "had a difficult start," said Nussbaumer, publisher of a Catholic weekly. "But later he was able to develop his own personality."

His reputation as a scholar - and bridge-builder to Orthodox Christians - began with a dissertation on icons even before he became a theology professor at the Catholic University of Fribourg, Switzerland in 1975. Fluent in French and Italian, proficient in English and Spanish, he is well-connected in the Vatican, as reflected by his role as a cardinal elector for Benedict.

He built on his image as an ecumenist with visits to the patriarchs of Russia and Romania and met with Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 11 years ago, on the first trip of a Catholic church leader to the Islamic republic since the 1979 revolution.

Normally above the fray of international politics, he spoke out sharply in 2002 about President George W. Bush's inclusion of Iran with prewar Iraq and North Korea as part of the "the axis of evil."

"In the best case it's naive," he said, contending such comments could "alienate Iran's moderate factions."

http://www.sacbee.com/2013/03/02/5230361/austrian-cardinal-a-conservative.html

[hawkeye59]

So, basically,
if it's a short conclave it's either Ravasi or Scola.
But if it's a long one there's also Scherer, Bagnasco, Sandri, and Erdo, right?

[Paleobrazilian]

So, basically,
if it's a short conclave it's either Ravasi or Scola.
But if it's a long one there's also Scherer, Bagnasco, Sandri, and Erdo, right?

Probably. The general congregations starting Monday will be decisive to lock the front-runner status of those.

[Franknburger]

So, basically,
if it's a short conclave it's either Ravasi or Scola.
But if it's a long one there's also Scherer, Bagnasco, Sandri, and Erdo, right?

I can't see it being a short conclave. The German delegation definitely wants Bertone out (they essentially blame the scandals of the last years on his 'mismanagement'), so they will do everything to make him look a weak conclave leader. Non-Europeans, if they don't get "their" pope, will try to at least get some issues settled in their favour (though I don't know what such issues could be). The Italian delegation should be split, and you have a number of 'long-shots' waiting for their chance, who should not be in favour of a quick decision.  If, in this setting, you get anybody elected by a two-thirds majority quickly, this amounts to a miracle.

[Paleobrazilian]

Maybe if a superstar emerges during the general congregation, some sort of consensus could be reached earlier - like when Cardinal Luciani (John Paul I) emerged in August 1978, delaying the Siri-Benelly showdown by 2 months. Of course, that time Benelli decided to endorse Luciani, and only made a serious pitch for the Papacy after John Paul I passed. This time, all major Italian candidates and dealbrakers seem to have way to many interests and ambitions to be willing to compromise early on. And I do think some non-Europeans will take a hard stance.

8-9 ballots seems to be a good prediction right now.

[Paleobrazilian]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://vaticaninsider.lastampa.it/en/the-vatican/detail/articolo/conclave-22818/

[Franknburger]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://vaticaninsider.lastampa.it/en/the-vatican/detail/articolo/conclave-22818/

So we now have to wait for the VP picks. I wonder whether there will also be a VP debate in the College of Cardinals

[Keystone Phil]

Conclave start date set for March 11th.