FiveThirtyEight's "Way-Too-Early 2020 Democratic Primary Draft"

[Mr. Morden]

Anyone want to try making their own draft board for this?  Ranking the top 30 most likely nominees, in order? 

[Mr. Morden]

Anyone want to try making their own draft board for this?  Ranking the top 30 most likely nominees, in order?  

http://challonge.com/4doam1wo

I created a massive, random-seeded 64-candidate bracket. Where should I post a voting thread?

EDIT: boom

Cool.  But it looks like you're asking who people would like better as the nominee (or as president), or at least that's how people are interpreting it.  What I was more curious about was whether anyone actually had a "draft board" of potential Dem. nominees ranked on the basis of likelihood of winning the nomination, which is what the 538 folks were doing.  I've done a top 5 or so before, but going up to 30 names like in the 538 draft, and actually really thinking about the order....seems rather daunting.

[Mr. Morden]

I can only go as far as 20.

I agree with their top 4 and order.

1. Warren
2. Sanders
3. Biden
4. Harris

Then I'll do another 5 who seems likely to run, would appeal to a key demographic.

5. Garcetti
6. Booker
7. Gillibrand
8. Klobuchar
9. Castro

After that, I do think perception of electability will be an advantage, particularly if 2020 is looking tough for Democrats so another 5 on that count.

10.Bullock
11.Brown
12.Kander
13.Moulton
14.Ryan

Then a few who are unlikely to run but would do well if they do or else likely to run but hard to see doing well

15.Franken
16.Cuomo
17.Merkley

And rounding out the top 20, I just put 3 together to form a single Irish-sounding person.

18.Patrick
19.Murphy
20.O'Malley

All right, you've prompted me to make my own list, which is closer to your list than the 538 list:

1) Warren
2) Sanders
3) Harris
4) Biden
5) Booker
6) Gillibrand
7) Garcetti
8 ) Klobuchar
9) Franken
10) Brown
11) Bullock
12) Castro
13) Patrick
14) Cuomo
15) Moulton
16) Merkley
17) Gabbard
18) Murphy
19) Kander
20) Clinton
21) Ryan
22) O’Malley
23) de Blasio
24) Hickenlooper
25) McAuliffe

That said, I wrote that in a hurry, and could probably be talked into moving many of the names around if anyone wants to give a compelling argument.  It's tough when you get into the 20s.  I mean, at #25, McAuliffe has no more than about a 1% chance of being the nominee.  How do you distinguish between a 1% probability event vs. a 2% event vs. a one half % event?  It's pretty much a shot in the dark.

[Mr. Morden]

5. Garcetti

You think? I'd like this, but could it happen?

I can't speak for BMB, but I definitely think it could.  Garcetti seems like a skilled pol, and it sounds like he's interested in a presidential run, so why not?  I wouldn’t put him in the top 5 like BMB did, but after Warren, Sanders, Harris, Biden, Booker, Gillibrand, who are the top 6 on my list, who else is there?  If you exclude those six, then Garcetti seems as likely as anyone.  Brown and Franken would (IMHO) be more likely to win the nomination than Garcetti if they were to actually run, but since it sounds like he’s more interested in running than they are, I’ve got him ahead of them.

[Mr. Morden]

19. Kander
20. Gore
21. Gabbard
22. Kander

Kander is both more and less likely than Gore and Gabbard.