The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[TheGlobalizer]

GOP VP nominee:

Rubio 22.0

Please, no.  Too soon.  He can wait until 2016/2020.

[Bull Moose Base]

Notice Pawlenty wasn't even on VP intrade a couple weeks ago.  ?  He's always struck me as a likely choice.  In fact, I think he's walking on eggshells with Romney to hedge his bet and be a potential VP candidate.  Not that it's unprecedented to tap a running mate who attacked you in a primary.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

where'd Johnson go?

[Mr. Morden]

where'd Johnson go?

He's at 0.4.  I was only bothering to list people at 0.5 or greater.  I guess I'm as bad as CNN.

[TheGlobalizer]

where'd Johnson go?

He's at 0.4.  I was only bothering to list people at 0.5 or greater.  I guess I'm as bad as CNN.

I like Johnson but he's toast.

[milhouse24]

Rubio's only 40 years old.  Probably the other guy from florida.

[tmthforu94]

I'd be investing a lot in Romney right now.

[Mr. Morden]

Perry surges to an all time high, and Gingrich hits at least his lowest since January 2010.

Up: Perry
Down: Pawlenty, Huntsman, Cain

Romney 29.8
Pawlenty 17.1
Hunstman 13.0
Perry 11.5
Palin 5.7
Bachmann 5.3
Cain 3.1
Giuliani 2.7
Christie 2.4
Paul 2.3
Gingrich 1.0
Ryan 1.0
Santorum 0.7
Pataki 0.5

Will the following people run for president in 2012?

Bachmann 85.0
Huntsman 84.9
Perry 65.0
Giuliani 40.0
Palin 31.1
Bolton 13.9
Pataki 10.0
Christie 9.9
Trump 6.8
DeMint 6.0

[Yelnoc]

They need a "will Perry run?" market.

[Mr. Morden]

They need a "will Perry run?" market.

That's what this is:

Will the following people run for president in 2012?

Bachmann 85.0
Huntsman 84.9
Perry 65.0
Giuliani 40.0
Palin 31.1
Bolton 13.9
Pataki 10.0
Christie 9.9
Trump 6.8
DeMint 6.0

[Yelnoc]

They need a "will Perry run?" market.

That's what this is:

Will the following people run for president in 2012?

Bachmann 85.0
Huntsman 84.9
Perry 65.0
Giuliani 40.0
Palin 31.1
Bolton 13.9
Pataki 10.0
Christie 9.9
Trump 6.8
DeMint 6.0

My apologies, I can't read

[Keystone Phil]

They have Huntsman that high? I believe he can win the nomination but I'm shocked that he's doing that well on InTrade this early.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Rubio's only 40 years old.  Probably the other guy from florida.

Who? Jeb Bush? Allen West? Rick Scott?

[CatoMinor]

where'd Johnson go?

He's at 0.4.  I was only bothering to list people at 0.5 or greater.  I guess I'm as bad as CNN.

Not at all, at least under your standards he didn't meet the criteria, under CNN's however, he did. Of the 3 things they set that a candidate must achieve at least one of, he cleared number 2 (and thats going only with the pollsters the debate organizers recognize)

I like Johnson but he's toast.

Carter, Clinton, and I believe Obama, all had similar levels of support, 1-2ish% at points in their campaigns. I wouldn't call him toast yet. 

[King]

They have Huntsman that high? I believe he can win the nomination but I'm shocked that he's doing that well on InTrade this early.

Probably a lot of people who think like you, saw him at 0.5, and drove the price up.   If I bought Huntsman low, I'd sell him at 13.

[TheGlobalizer]

I like Johnson but he's toast.

Carter, Clinton, and I believe Obama, all had similar levels of support, 1-2ish% at points in their campaigns. I wouldn't call him toast yet. 

I'm not basing that on stats so much as Ron Paul's presence in the nom race.

I hope he proves me wrong, and I hope it starts with CNN letting him into the debates.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I don't think Obama was ever below double digits in national primary polls.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't think Obama was ever below double digits in national primary polls.

He was consistently second behind Clinton with about 15-20%.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the national Dem. primary polling trend from 2007/2008, ftr:

[Mr. Morden]

Both Pawlenty and Perry gain, with Perry now up to 3rd place.  I'm having Fred Thompson flashbacks.

Romney 29.4
Pawlenty 18.4
Perry 13.1
Huntsman 12.6
Palin 6.0
Bachmann 5.2
Cain 3.5
Christie 2.4
Paul 2.2
Giuliani 1.9
Gingrich 1.0
Ryan 1.0
Pataki 0.8
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.4

From roughly four years ago:

Democrats
Clinton 50.6
Obama 30.8
Gore 10.4
Edwards 6.0
Richardson 2.2
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Thompson 26.3
Giuliani 23.8
Romney 22.0
McCain 15.6
Paul 1.9
Huckabee 1.7
Gingrich 1.6
Rice 0.9
Hagel 0.8
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-debate update.  Cain gains, Pawlenty drops, and Huntsman reclaims 3rd place from Perry.

Up: Cain
Down: Pawlenty

Romney 30.2
Pawlenty 16.4
Huntsman 13.4
Perry 13.0
Palin 5.6
Bachmann 5.2
Cain 4.6
Paul 2.4
Christie 2.3
Giuliani 1.6
Ryan 1.6
Gingrich 1.0
Pataki 0.8
Santorum 0.8
Johnson 0.4

Bachmann to win Iowa straw poll: 27.0
Pawlenty to win Iowa straw poll: 24.0

Gingrich to drop out of race by June 30: 25.0

[The Mikado]

Protip: sell the f**k out of Huntsman.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Bachmann gains on her announcement, Romney stretches his lead (now at his highest level since last September), and Perry again takes 3rd place.

Up: Romney, Bachmann
Down: Huntsman

Romney 31.8
Pawlenty 16.0
Perry 13.3
Huntsman 11.0
Bachmann 6.3
Palin 5.1
Cain 3.7
Christie 2.4
Paul 2.2
Gingrich 1.9
Giuliani 1.6
Ryan 1.6
Santorum 0.9
Pataki 0.8

Will the following people run?

Huntsman 90.0
Perry 50.3
Palin 32.0
Giuliani 20.0
Bolton 10.0
Pataki 10.0
Christie 9.9

[TheGlobalizer]

I expect Bachmann will be way up in the next few days.  She's the only one getting legit praise for her performance.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Romney 31.8
Pawlenty 16.0
Perry 13.3
Huntsman 11.0
Bachmann 6.3
Palin 5.1
Cain 3.7
Christie 2.4
Paul 2.2
Gingrich 1.9
Giuliani 1.6
Ryan 1.6
Santorum 0.9

I cant believe that many people are betting on Pawlenty