GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[heatcharger]

Ossoff currently at 63.4% with EV from Dekalb and Cobb.

[heatcharger]

Bob Gray seems to be going nowhere. Still obviously a lot of vote left.

[heatcharger]

Handel's mentioned Nancy Pelosi 6 times in her speech lol.

Let's check how the polls did (I'm assuming Ossoff ends up at 48%)

Emerson had Ossoff at 43% (+5)
Landmark had Ossoff at 45% (+3)
Fox 5 had Ossoff at 42% (+6)
Zpolitics had Ossoff at 41% (+7)

Let's not forget that RRH poll that had Ossoff at 39%.

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/_Drew_McCoy_/status/854531396760731651

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Yup. I'm going to sleep. This isn't worth it.

[heatcharger]

Bernie Sanders says he is not ready to endorse Jon Ossoff because he "doesn't know whether or not he's a progressive"

This is probably the worst district in the country for Sanders to be involved in, and I hope Berniecrats understand this well. Let's hope he stays out.

[heatcharger]

WSB-Landmark poll:

Handel 49%
Ossoff 47%

[heatcharger]

WSB-Landmark poll:

Handel 49%
Ossoff 47%

Actually worse for Ossoff: 49.1-46.5. Landmark was most accurate pollster in first round, too.

Decimal points are usually irrelevant, and that poll still underestimated Ossoff by 3 points.

[heatcharger]

Can we talk about how Gravis completely copied PPP's publishing format? They are so ridiculously amateurish it's hilarious.

[heatcharger]

Can we talk about how Gravis completely copied PPP's publishing format? They are so ridiculously amateurish it's hilarious.

Yeah, I had to check again whether this was Gravis or not when I saw this, lol.

I'm still not 100% convinced their polls are real, and even then, their crosstabs have the gender split at 53-47 in favor of Males, which is very unusual.

I suppose this is a good poll for Ossoff, but I would think Handel has more room to improve based on her somehow having lower name ID than Ossoff.

[heatcharger]

Personally, I'd much rather see this kind of investment go towards winning the GA gubernatorial election in 2018 than winning 1 House seat, as that would have a much bigger impact in the coming years, but then again, I guess we also do need a symbolic victory right now.

Yeah, Dems could use a boost to morale after years of losing, and I suspect if Ossoff wins, top-tier candidates will start popping up with Clinton/GOP districts.

I agree that the money being spent in this race is getting ridiculous, but it's kinda hard to shut off the faucet at such a pivotal time.

[heatcharger]

I've seen Republicans have 9 lives too many times to for me to say Ossoff is favored. Still Tilt R unless Handel is completely collapsing.

[heatcharger]

WHOA

SurveyUSA poll of GA-6: Ossoff +7 (!)

Jon Ossoff - 51%
Karen Handel - 44%
Undecided - 6%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e944d747-cc05-4608-90db-ed0527267059

Those undecideds are mostly Temporarily Embarrassed Republicans, but it's good to see Ossoff above 50% in a public poll.

[heatcharger]

Where are muh polls? I'm curious whether Ossoff is actually leading or not.

[heatcharger]

New WSB poll:

Ossoff 49.1
Handel 47.6

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/01/wsb-poll-ossoff-and-handel-locked-in-a-georgia-6th-nail-biter/

Last poll from them Handel up 3 so maybe there is a bit of momentum. I'd feel more confident if Ossoff was consistently posting above 50% considering which way undecideds always go in Southern states.

Also, there's a huge age gap here:

[heatcharger]

Early vote through today by county:

Cobb 10623 (16.9%)
DeKalb 15618 (24.8%)
Fulton 36722 (58.3%)
Total 62963

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Do you have the results by county in the 1st round by any chance? An uptick in turnout in Dekalb looks good, but that was to be expected with the EV situation, and so I'm wondering who will benefit from this sharp increase in Fulton.

[heatcharger]

Anyone else get an Obama-esque vibe from the way Ossoff speaks?? It's very similar to Obama's speaking style, re the cadence and rhythm.

He drops the last syllable of sentences like Obama does, and sprinkles in an occasional "uh". It's a good touch.

By the way, Ossof's statement tonight that he supports a return to 50s era tax rates on the wealthy isn't going to play well in nevertrump surburbs.

He never said such a thing.

[heatcharger]

Wow, I woke up from my nap to some great news around the world, including here! Still, way too much time for Republicans to rally around the flag and put Handel into Congress. Things are looking good though.

LOL:

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At this point, I'd bet that Ossoff is more recognizable in Atlanta than Nathan Deal or Kasim Reed.

With the amount of cash that's been infused, that's not too surprising.

[heatcharger]

I feel like the "Hollywood liberals" dog whistle has less weight here considering the growth of the Atlanta film industry.

[heatcharger]

snip

Second one is definitely fake.

[heatcharger]

snip

Second one is definitely fake.

I'm actually pretty sure they're real (they were shared here some time ago, but maybe it was fake then). Nevertheless, campaigns do it because it works: people pour money into campaign coffers when they receive a higher frequency of emails. Of course, all campaigns engaging in this behavior create an inflationary-like effect where even more emails have to be sent over time in order to yield the same results. You can largely thank Barack Obama's campaign for this.

The second one looks like it was whipped up by someone trying to make the Ossoff campaign look desperate. The formatting looks too sophomoric.

But yeah, I'm aware of how modern campaigns create a sense of alarm by sending fundraising emails numerous times to the same people, but Ossoff's campaign hasn't exactly been broke at any point recently, as far as I'm aware.