EP elections 2014

[ObserverIE]

European election polls in today's Irish Independent for Midlands-North-West and South. Both of these are 4-seat constituencies run under STV, in which the quota for election is 20%.

Midlands-North-West:

Matt Carthy (SF-EUL/NGL) 17%
Thomas Byrne (FF-ALDE) 16%
Luke "Ming" Flanagan (Ind) 12%
*Marian Harkin (Ind-ALDE) 12%
*Jim Higgins (FG-EPP) 11%
*Mairéad McGuinness (FG-EPP) 11%
*Pat "the Cope" Gallagher (FF-ALDE) 9%
Lorraine Higgins (Lab-S&D) 4%
Mark Fitzsimons (Ind) 3%
Rónán Mullen (Ind) 3%
Mark Dearey (GP-Greens) 2%
Ben Gilroy (DDI) 1%

South:

*Brian Crowley (FF-ALDE) 36%
Liadh Ní Riada (SF-EUL/NGL) 15%
*Seán Kelly (FG-EPP) 12%
Deirdre Clune (FG-EPP) 12%
Diarmuid O'Flynn (Ind) 7%
Simon Harris (FG) 7%
*Phil Prendergast (Lab-S&D) 4%
Jillian Godsil (Ind) 3%
Kieran Hartley (FF) 3%
Grace O'Sullivan (GP-Greens) 1%
Jan van de Ven (DDI) 1%

[sirius3100]

And these are the other minor parties (keep in mind, that after the abolition of the threshold the parties now need 0.5796% in order to be sure to win a seat.):

This number seems to be from wahlrecht.de. But in their example there are 10 parties running for 30 seats. And the number is given in seat fractions and not in percent.
Using the formula also given at wahlrecht.de I calculate 0,592% for this treshold using 25 parties and 96 seats. And 0,429% as the lower limit to be able to gain a seat.

I'm also quite disappointed on the low media coverage for the minor parties. At least they could list their percentages in the polls.

[EPG]

European election polls in today's Irish Independent for Midlands-North-West and South. Both of these are 4-seat constituencies run under STV, in which the quota for election is 20%.

Midlands-North-West:

Matt Carthy (SF-EUL/NGL) 17%
Thomas Byrne (FF-ALDE) 16%
Luke "Ming" Flanagan (Ind) 12%
*Marian Harkin (Ind-ALDE) 12%
*Jim Higgins (FG-EPP) 11%
*Mairéad McGuinness (FG-EPP) 11%
*Pat "the Cope" Gallagher (FF-ALDE) 9%
Lorraine Higgins (Lab-S&D) 4%
Mark Fitzsimons (Ind) 3%
Rónán Mullen (Ind) 3%
Mark Dearey (GP-Greens) 2%
Ben Gilroy (DDI) 1%

South:

*Brian Crowley (FF-ALDE) 36%
Liadh Ní Riada (SF-EUL/NGL) 15%
*Seán Kelly (FG-EPP) 12%
Deirdre Clune (FG-EPP) 12%
Diarmuid O'Flynn (Ind) 7%
Simon Harris (FG) 7%
*Phil Prendergast (Lab-S&D) 4%
Jillian Godsil (Ind) 3%
Kieran Hartley (FF) 3%
Grace O'Sullivan (GP-Greens) 1%
Jan van de Ven (DDI) 1%

For the bewildered:

Luke "Ming" Flanagan was Ireland's most prominent cannabis legalisation advocate and was elected to the Dáil in 2011 after focusing more on populist rural issues, like supporting turf-cutting from bogs despite environmental protection rules. Marian Harkin is ALDE, but EDP rather than ELDR, and she would be more about regional/rural development than liberalism - for instance, she's not keen on trade deals. Mark Fitzsimons is the left-wing environmentalist candidate in Midlands-North West who tried to orchestrate his arrest on cannabis possession before running for Europe. He's effectively what Ming used to be, and has the support level to prove it. Rónán Mullen is a conservative senator representing the National University of Ireland who used to work for the Church and for Catholic and other newspapers, and is more vocally conservative than is typical in Ireland, having equated abortion to murder and so forth. I am surprised he is only on 3%.

Diarmuid O'Flynn is a journalist and organiser of the weekly protest march in Ballyhea that opposes the payments from the government to bank bondholders that keep the banks from going bankrupt and which is against austerity. Less vocally, they're also anti-euro, anti-trade deals and pro-FTT, which are not positions that will get you elected with ease in Ireland. 7% is a very strong result for this type of agenda. Jillian Godsil is a writer from a comfortable background, who suffered a reversal of fortune and became bankrupt, so she wouldn't normally be entitled to run in an Irish election. She went bankrupt in February, took a case to the High Court in March, and got the government to change the law in April. I don't know about her politics.

[joevsimp]

Here's something about some of the less familiar party names on the UK ballot papers.  Most of these have no chance of actually winning a seat, though a handful of them might if we were using the German system.


An Independence from Europe is a UKIP splinter, based around Mike Nattrass MEP, who appear to be deliberately trying to be a spoiler for UKIP: they're even using the description "UK Independence Now" in some areas, which I'm surprised has been allowed.  The weird indefinite article in the name is presumably to get to the top of the ballot paper.


We Demand a Referendum is the banner of Nikki Sinclaire MEP, who was elected as UKIP and fell out with them.  There had been reports of other candidates, but she's the only one.

do Nattrass and Sinclaire really believe that they are the best individuals to stand up for Britain in Brussels, or do they just not want to get proper jobs

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ has presented 6 new EU campaign posters today at the campaign kickoff of the Vienna-SPÖ:

(right click for HUGE version of the picture)



The posters are on the walls on the side of the convention hall and read:

* "A Europe for the people. Not for the lobbyists."
* "A Europe for the people. Not for the banks and corporations."
* "A Europe for the people. Not for the privatizers."
* "A Europe for the people. Not for the GMO-companies."
* "A Europe for the people. Not for the speculants."
* "A Europe for the people. Not for the real-estate-sharks."

[Tender Branson]

The EU-Vox party test is now online (well, not really, because the demand is so high right now that it's currently not working).

www.euvox.eu

With EU-Vox you can find out which party you are closest to in EACH country, with questions in English and the local language.

Apparently, this is the official test site sponsored by the EP (from what I understand).

[Diouf]

Denmark poll by Megafon

DF 25.6 % 4 seats
Liberals 22.6 % 4
Social Democrats 20.9 % 3
People's Movement against the EU 12.7 % 1
Social Liberals 5.8 % 1
SF 5.0 % 0
Conservatives 3.8 % 0
Liberal Alliance 3.5 % 0

This is the poll with the biggest percentage for the eurosceptic parties so far. This is some of the highest results for both DF and the People's Movement against the EU, but with the current anti-EU sentiment, it is probably not far off. I still think it's surprisingly low results for both SF and the Conservatives.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God, Denmark is so depressing. The best we can with to the SDs at this point is to die quickly, since it's pretty clear they have completely lost their soul already.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

And these are the other minor parties (keep in mind, that after the abolition of the threshold the parties now need 0.5796% in order to be sure to win a seat.):

This number seems to be from wahlrecht.de. But in their example there are 10 parties running for 30 seats. And the number is given in seat fractions and not in percent.
Using the formula also given at wahlrecht.de I calculate 0,592% for this treshold using 25 parties and 96 seats. And 0,429% as the lower limit to be able to gain a seat.

I'm also quite disappointed on the low media coverage for the minor parties. At least they could list their percentages in the polls.

You are right!

[ObserverIE]

European election poll in the Sunday Independent for Dublin. This is a three-seat constituency in which the quota for election is 25%. Some rather jaundiced candidate profiles here.

Lynn Boylan (SF-EUL/NGL) 20%
*Nessa Childers (Ind Lab) 19%
Brian Hayes (FG-EPP) 15%
Mary Fitzpatrick (FF-ALDE) 13%
*Emer Costello (Labour-S&D) 12%
Éamon Ryan (GP-Greens) 11%
Bríd Smith (SWP/PBP-EUL/NGL) 5%
*Paul Murphy (SP-EUL/NGL) 4%
Tom Darcy (DDI) 1%

Hayes apparently is in trouble because of his lack of ability to attract transfers. Goes to show that being persistently obnoxious can have payback

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll (sample = 800):



Right-click for big version.

SPÖ and ÖVP are still locked in a tight battle, the FPÖ is at 20% again. Greens and NEOS are stable at 13% and the others are still where they are. Europa Anders seems to have not gained so far. "Others" are at 3%, the only "other" party on the ballot is "EU-STOP".

[Tender Branson]

Poster from the satirical German party "Die Partei" (The Party):



"Speed limit ? Not with us !"

[Tender Branson]

Found another one:



"Hands off the German Penis !"

"NO to the EU-regulated-Penis !"

"YES to Europe, NO to Europe ! - The Party"

[Tender Branson]

A little background on the penis-poster:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/world/europe/12iht-food.4.17771299.html

[EPG]

The Irish polls appear to have 500-person samples, which is bad enough, but to then infer STV behaviour from them is very foolish - you could end up basing conclusions on the transfers of 20 randomly-chosen respondents, which yields unlikely and volatile results, which is what you want to publish as a newspaper desperate to sell editions in a dying industry, I guess.

[Velasco]

A little background on the penis-poster:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/world/europe/12iht-food.4.17771299.html

While I can't deny that German poster is 'funny' -unlike the others from the same origin, as plain and boring as Frau Merkel-, I wonder why don't you start another thread for electoral propaganda and other trivia. I'd even make my own contributions, posting the candidate of the Spanish PACMA party with an adorable puppie into her arms.

...

Strange poll from El País.

PP 32.6% (20 seats); PSOE 32.2% (19); IU 12% (7); CiU+PNV+CC 4.7% (2); UPyD 4.6% (2); ERC 4.2% (2); Cs 2.1% (1); Equo+Compromís+CHA 1.8% (1).

There must be an error with the UPyD result. The same pollster predicted 8% for the Rosa Díez's party past month. Otherwise, the poll seems about right in the general trend. There will be a punishment and abstention will overcome 50%, but the collapse of the two main parties (PP and PSOE) won't be so strong and both will retain more than 60% of the vote (falling from more than 80% in the 2009 EP elections). IU is strong and UPyD will rise, but their ascent seems to be halted and last polls show a slight descending trend for both parties. Peripheral nationalism will retain its share, with special mention to the ERC rise (I think the Catalan pro-independence party will get about 3% nationwide, not 4% as this poll predicts).

The EP elections are very important for Rajoy and Rubalcaba. If PP loses, the conservative regional 'barons' would become very nervous, because there will be regional and local elections next year. PSOE has internal tensions and later in this year the party will hold primary elections to choose a candidate for the next national election. Only if the list headed by Elena Valenciano -Rubalcaba's right-hand woman- wins the election, the incumbent PSOE leader would consider to run in the primaries. Otherwise, his long political career may come to a close.

There are regional results that will be of great importance and they will be followed closely. On the one hand the PP strongholds of Madrid and Valencia regions. Recent polls suggest that PP may lose majority and likely the government in both places in 2015. On the other hand the result in Catalonia. It's not unlikely an ERC victory there, surpassing the governing CiU and the hapless PSC (Catalan socialists). There are vague hopes in the Spanish government around a CiU's defeat at the hands of ERC. Such outcome is the worst nightmare for the governing nationalist coalition and would be a hard blow for Artur Mas. PP thinks it might drive the Catalan premier to rethink his strategy on the independence process going on. However, the pressure from ERC and (above all) from the Catalan National Assembly (a very influential pro-independence group from the 'civil society') on Mas is heavy, while the Spanish government has tried to put pressure on him through Catalan entrepreneurs. There is concern in Catalan PP because polls indicate the conservative party is losing ground to Ciutadans.

Curious poll conducted by the sociology department of the Complutense University for the EP elections in Madrid region:

PP 31.5%; PSOE 24.7%; UPyD 16.3%; IU 12%; Podemos 5.7%; Vox 2.8%; Equo 2.6%; Partido X 0.7%; Others 3.7%.


If I have to make a prediction for Spain, I think PP might get 32/33% of the vote and around 20 seats; PSOE slightly less than 30% and 18 seats; IU between 10% and 12% (6/7 seats); UPyD between 7% and 8% (4/5 seats); CiU+PP+CC 4% (2 seats); ERC 3% (1/2 seats); Cs 2% (1) and EHBildu+BNG something less than 2% (1). With some chances of winning a seat (more or less in this order): European Spring (Equo+Compromís+CHA), the far-left Podemos and the right-wing Vox Party.

[Velasco]

Sigma Dos tracking/ El Mundo:

[You kip if you want to...]

UKIP surging

UKIP 31 (+4)
Labour 28 (-2)
Conservatives 19 (-3)
Lib 9 (-1)
Other 13 (+2)

I feel like the aftermath of such a terrible Tory result would cause an earthquake in the party. Their worst national showing in their history.

And before people say the Euros don't really matter, think of the Blairite coup that wasn't in 2009.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Labour's polling will probably change quite dramatically next week when Cruddas's review is finally published, especially if the reformist, populist wing win over the cautious side.

[Tender Branson]

Tonight at 7pm local time, the first major English-speaking debate will take place on Euronews !

The top candidates attending will be:

* Jean-Claude Juncker (European People’s Party)
* Martin Schulz (Party of European Socialists)
* Guy Verhofstadt (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party)
* Franziska Keller (European Green Party)

The debate:

The event will be held in Maastricht in the Netherlands in partnership with the European Youth Forum and the University of Maastricht.

Lasting 90 minutes, it will focus on the following themes: the economy, the future of the EU, the rise in skepticism of the EU project, immigration and European foreign policy.

The debate will be moderated by Euronews’ Isabelle Kumar, Chris Burns and myself, Mark Davis. My part in the moderation will be to monitor the social networks, taking a few of the best questions posted before and during the debate and putting them directly to the candidates.

http://www.euronews.com/2014/04/14/what-will-you-ask-the-potential-future-president-of-the-european-commission

The Euronews website will likely offer a live stream at 7pm.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The German Wahl-o-mat for the European elections is available:

https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/europawahl2014/


My results:

Greens 85.5%
Pirates 84.2%
SPD 81.6%
Left 77.6%
FDP 59.2%
Free Voters 56.6%
CDU 53.9%
CSU 51.3%
AfD 51.3%
NPD 36.8%

[FredLindq]

Labour's polling will probably change quite dramatically next week when Cruddas's review is finally published, especially if the reformist, populist wing win over the cautious side.

Up or down?!

[sirius3100]

My Wahl-O-Mat results:

Pirates 80,8%
SPD 74%
Animal Protection 72,1%
Greens 70,2%
Family 65,4%
FDP 64,4%
Left 58,7%
Free Voters 51,9%
ÖDP 51,9%
AFD 51,0%
CDU 51,0%
CSU 50,0%
BP 48,1%
NPD 36,5%
REP 28,8%

edit: my Wahlkabine.at results:
Europa Anders 292
Greens 277
NEOS 220
ÖVP 3
BZÖ -54
FPÖ -100
REKOS -278

[Tender Branson]

My Germany "Wahl-O-Mat" result:

88.9% Animal Protection Party
85.2% Greens
84.3% ÖDP
83.3% Pirates
82.4% The Left
82.4% The Party
79.6% DKP
79.6% Family Party
75.9% SPD
75.9% MLPD
74.1% PBC
68.5% FW
67.6% PSG
64.8% Bavaria Party
61.1% CSU
61.1% Christian Middle Party
60.2% CDU
59.3% Volksabstimmung
58.3% FDP
55.6% AfD
49.1% NPD
45.4% BüSo
41.7% ProNRW
32.4% AUF
29.6% Republicans