French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Rob]

The Royal Road to Irrelevance: The 'French Hillary' is squandering the Socialists' presidential hopes

[Cubby]

PS: the assimilation Criminals-Citizens by royal is disgusting.

What does that mean?

I still haven't decided between Bayrou and Royal.

[Hash]

Decide for Sarkozy. Royal has no experience, she's disgusting me by flip-flopping. Bayrou is just an opportunist with a centrist platform that makes no sense. Bayrou and Royal is a vote for status quo, vote for Sarkozy, vote for change and action.

[Umengus]

PS: the assimilation Criminals-Citizens by royal is disgusting.

What does that mean?

I still haven't decided between Bayrou and Royal.

Royal: "She said the riot was a symptom of the lack of ``mutual confidence'' between citizens and the police"

it's not between citizens and police but between criminals and police. Criminals are not citizens. There deserve a strong punition. And, not only for royal but also for the entire left: stop to say "young people" to design criminals. The majority of young people are honest and respect law and order. Stop amalgam.

[Umengus]

LH2 poll

30-31/03

Besancenot: 5% (+2)
Laguiller: 1% (-1,5)
Bové: 2% (+0,5)
Buffet: 3% (+1)

Royal: 26% (-1)

Voynet: 1% (=)

Bayrou: 18% (-2)

Nihous: 1% (-1)

Sarkozy: 29% (+2)

De Villiers: 1% (-0,5)

Le Pen: 13% (+1)

15% refuse to say


Royal: 49% (+1)
Sarkozy: 51% (-1)

12% refuse to say.

[Cubby]

Decide for Sarkozy. Royal has no experience, she's disgusting me by flip-flopping. Bayrou is just an opportunist with a centrist platform that makes no sense. Bayrou and Royal is a vote for status quo, vote for Sarkozy, vote for change and action.

But I'm a liberal   Sarkozy is too right wing for me. I usually support mainstream left wing candidates like Blair, Zapatero and Kerry.

France needs change, and Sarkozy is the most capable of doing that. But this is part of why I can't support him:

Times Online article from December 2005, about France's reaction to Elton John's partnership announcement.

http://timescorrespondents.typepad.com/charles_bremner/2005/12/sir_elton_et_la.html

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So even though I realize that Royal and her agenda would be bad for France's economy, I have to support her because Sarkozy is just as bad as Bush, Howard and Putin. If he and Bayrou make it to the 2nd round, I'll support the latter, since he's okay with adoption but not marriage.

It may seem strange to some that I base my entire candidate endorsements on one issue but when you are part of a despised minority, you have to support those who see you as equals.

PS: the assimilation Criminals-Citizens by royal is disgusting.

What does that mean?

Royal: "She said the riot was a symptom of the lack of ``mutual confidence'' between citizens and the police"

it's not between citizens and police but between criminals and police. Criminals are not citizens. There deserve a strong punition. And, not only for royal but also for the entire left: stop to say "young people" to design criminals. The majority of young people are honest and respect law and order. Stop amalgam.

I understand what you mean now, she wasn't tough against the rioters.

But criminals are citizens too, they don't don't lose all their rights once they commit a crime.

[Hash]

Royal is going to lose, that's one thing I say in all certainty.

[Umengus]

Royal is going to lose, that's one thing I say in all certainty.

I agree. Royal's going to lose.

15 days before the election and things are like predicted: far right and far left are emerging. 

My completed prediction, realized 10/03:

Schivardi: 0,5%-1
Laguiller: 3,5%-4%
Besancenot: 3%
Buffet: 2,5%-3
Bové: 1,5%-2

10-12% to share between these candidates

Royal: 21-24%
Voynet: 1-2%

Bayrou: 15-17%

Nihous: 1%

Sarkozy: 25%

De villiers: 2-3%

Le Pen: 20-21%

I think that Bayrou will not be at the second turn. I think that this battle will be between Le Pen and Royal. In my opinion, the dynamic is: le pen is rising and Royal is falling.

[Umengus]

Sofres poll

04/04-05/04

Schivardi: <0,5% (-0,5)
Laguiller: 2,5% (+1,5)
Besancenot: 4% (+0,5)
Bové: 2% (-0,5)
Boffet: 3% (+0,5)

In 2002, the result of extreme left was 13%

Voynet: 1% (=)
Royal: 23,5% (-3,5)

Bayrou 20% (+2)
Nihous: 1,5% (+0,5)

Sarkozy: 28% (-2)

De Villiers: 1,5% (+0,5)

Le Pen: 13% (+1)

Did not express: 20% (+5)

Royal: 46% (-2)
Sarkozy: 54% (+2)

Did not express: 20% (+4)

Bayrou: 52% (-2)
Sarkozy: 48% (+2)

did not express: 20% (+2)

Important to say that since 22/03, presidential candidates have an equal time to speak on tvs and radios.

[Colin]

No way is Le Pen going to get over 20% of the vote. The highest that he could ever achieve, in my mind, is about 18% or 19%. I think that's really the upper level for the far right.

[Umengus]

Csa poll

04/04-05/04

Schivardi: 0,5% (=)
Laguiller: 2% (=)
Besancenot: 3,5% (+0,5)
Buffet: 2% (-2)
Bové: 1,5% (-0,5)

Voynet: 1,5% (+0,5)
Royal: 23,5 (-1)

Bayrou: 21% (+1,5)
Nihous: 1,5% (+0,5)

Sarkozy: 26% (=)

De Villiers: 1% (-0,5)

Le Pen: 16% (+1)

Turnout: 79% (=)

Royal: 48% (=)
Sarkozy: 52% (=)

Turnout: 77% (+2)

[Keystone Phil]

I'm guessing that I'd be a Sarkozy supporter (as I wait for someone to call me a Le Pen backer... ). Bayrou seems to close to the left for me.

[Keystone Phil]

No way is Le Pen going to get over 20% of the vote. The highest that he could ever achieve, in my mind, is about 18% or 19%. I think that's really the upper level for the far right.

How much did he get last time?

[Umengus]

No way is Le Pen going to get over 20% of the vote. The highest that he could ever achieve, in my mind, is about 18% or 19%. I think that's really the upper level for the far right.

it was his level in 2002. since then, difficult to see for wich reason it would lose votes. Rebsamen, the director of campaign of Royal and a guy who knows the ground, has said 2 weeks ago that Le Pen would do 20%+ and an UDF  deputy says the same. Lots of politicians thinl that Le Pen will be at 20%.

Except ipsos poll, independent pollster but this company works often for sarkozy and in my opinion overestimates him, all polling institutes give Le Pen at a level never polled before.

[Umengus]

No way is Le Pen going to get over 20% of the vote. The highest that he could ever achieve, in my mind, is about 18% or 19%. I think that's really the upper level for the far right.

How much did he get last time?

16,84% and Megret, dissident, 2,34%

[Umengus]

FRENCH ELECTION CAMPAIGN

Le Pen targets immigrant vote in Paris suburbs
Visit to ethnically diverse Argenteuil a direct challenge to rival's 'scum' remark
ANNA WILLARD

Reuters News Service

ARGENTEUIL, FRANCE -- Far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen visited a multiracial French suburb at the centre of a "scum" gibe by conservative presidential front-runner Nicolas Sarkozy yesterday, in a direct challenge to his rival.

The veteran anti-immigration campaigner shook hands with local women wearing veils and a black man during a surprise visit to the Argenteuil estate, a drab concrete affair surrounded by high-rise blocks just north of Paris.

"We want to help you get out of these suburban ghettos where French politicians have parked you . . . only to call you scum later," Mr. Le Pen said, reading from prepared remarks to a small audience of locals and two busloads of journalists.

During a 2005 visit to Argenteuil, Mr. Sarkozy, then interior minister, vowed to rid the poor neighbourhood of the "scum" he said were ruining life for other residents.

 The comments were partly blamed for fuelling tensions in the ethnically diverse French suburbs, which had erupted into the worst riots in 40 years after two youths died of electrocution while apparently fleeing police.

Mr. Sarkozy has not returned to Argenteuil since. Mr. Le Pen and other rivals have taunted him over his unwillingness to visit the suburbs during his campaign for fear of sparking new unrest.

"Thank you for allowing me to speak here, where even our former interior minister dared not come," Mr. Le Pen said at the start of a 50-minute visit.

"I want to prove that there are no 'no-go' areas as far as we are concerned."

Mr. Sarkozy's nearest rival for the presidency, Socialist Party candidate Ségolène Royal and centrist contender François Bayrou, have both successfully visited run-down neighbourhoods without incident and have questioned Mr. Sarkozy's ability to represent the nation when he cannot visit certain areas of the country.

Mr. Sarkozy's election troubles took another bad turn yesterday when a former government ally accused the French presidential candidate of hurling insults at him during the riots in 2005 and of trying to intimidate his political enemies.

The comments by former equal opportunities minister Azouz Begag in a new book will complicate Mr. Sarkozy's efforts to soften the hard-line image he built up during the riots in poor and ethnically diverse suburbs.

Mr. Begag resigned from the cabinet on Thursday and is supporting Mr. Bayrou.

Mr. Begag recalled he had criticized Mr. Sarkozy for describing violent youths as "scum."

"You're an arsehole. An unfaithful bastard!" Mr. Begag quoted Mr. Sarkozy as telling him on the phone. "I'm gonna smash your face in."

Mr. Sarkozy denied yesterday he insulted Mr. Begag, a Muslim born in France of Algerian parents.

The title of Begag's book, Un mouton dans la baignoire (A sheep in the bathtub), is a reference to a comment Mr. Sarkozy made in a recent television show, when he said Muslim immigrants had to respect French traditions.

"That means no polygamy, no female circumcision and no slitting sheep's throats in the apartment," Mr. Sarkozy said.

Yesterday's visit by the 78-year-old Mr. Le Pen to Argenteuil provoked diverse reactions. Some locals tried to ask him questions and have a discussion, while others angrily shouted insults.

"I don't think much of him. . . . He has come here to provoke us," said Rachid Ben Slam, a 16-year-old student.

One women shouted: "We don't need you here," as Mr. Le Pen chatted to people outside a neighbourhood shop.

The Socialist Party denounced the visit as a media circus.

source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070407.FRANCE07/TPStory/TPInternational/Europe/

[Keystone Phil]

No way is Le Pen going to get over 20% of the vote. The highest that he could ever achieve, in my mind, is about 18% or 19%. I think that's really the upper level for the far right.

How much did he get last time?

16,84% and Megret, dissident, 2,34%

Ok, I am fairly new to this stuff so please explain what I bolded if you get a chance.

[Umengus]

No way is Le Pen going to get over 20% of the vote. The highest that he could ever achieve, in my mind, is about 18% or 19%. I think that's really the upper level for the far right.

How much did he get last time?

16,84% and Megret, dissident, 2,34%

Ok, I am fairly new to this stuff so please explain what I bolded if you get a chance.

Megret was the n°2 of the FN before his "putch-putch" in 1998. Today, he supports Le Pen and I think that his voters too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

all polling institutes give Le Pen at a level never polled before.

Which means one of two things; either Le Pen is doing better than he has before or that (for whatever reason) there's less shame in admitting to voting for Le Pen than there has been previously.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Megret was the n°2 of the FN before his "putch-putch" in 1998. Today, he supports Le Pen and I think that his voters too.

Who did he endorse in the second round in 2002? IIRC a lot of his voters actually went with Chirac.

[Umengus]

I'm guessing that I'd be a Sarkozy supporter (as I wait for someone to call me a Le Pen backer... ). Bayrou seems to close to the left for me.

probably. Sarkozy is clearly the most american-friendly candidate. Le Pen is anti-american candidate (but not his daughter who, some years ago, had meet US GOP politicians) and anti-israel too.

Sarkozy supports affirmative action and the fact to give money to build mosque.

The economic program of le pen is very reaganian and his views on security are the same that GOP (death penalty,...). Le Pen is also anti-imigration (like Tancredo) and Sarkozy is more soft on this problem.

[Umengus]

Megret was the n°2 of the FN before his "putch-putch" in 1998. Today, he supports Le Pen and I think that his voters too.

Who did he endorse in the second round in 2002? IIRC a lot of his voters actually went with Chirac.

Megret endorsed Le Pen and his voters have probably voted in great majority for le Pen. Difficult to say with certitude but megret was at the right of Le Pen hence difficult to imagine megret voters to vote for a guy like Chirac.

[Keystone Phil]

No way is Le Pen going to get over 20% of the vote. The highest that he could ever achieve, in my mind, is about 18% or 19%. I think that's really the upper level for the far right.

How much did he get last time?

16,84% and Megret, dissident, 2,34%

Ok, I am fairly new to this stuff so please explain what I bolded if you get a chance.

Megret was the n°2 of the FN before his "putch-putch" in 1998. Today, he supports Le Pen and I think that his voters too.

So he was a different candidate. Now I understand.

I'm guessing that I'd be a Sarkozy supporter (as I wait for someone to call me a Le Pen backer... ). Bayrou seems to close to the left for me.

probably. Sarkozy is clearly the most american-friendly candidate. Le Pen is anti-american candidate (but not his daughter who, some years ago, had meet US GOP politicians) and anti-israel too.

Yeah, I knew Le Pen was anti America/Israel. He seems to be a real nutcase.

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Ugh.

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I wouldn't say that I am like Tancredo on immigration anyway.

[Umengus]

all polling institutes give Le Pen at a level never polled before.

Which means one of two things; either Le Pen is doing better than he has before or that (for whatever reason) there's less shame in admitting to voting for Le Pen than there has been previously.

Impossible to respond for now (but for me, option 1). Answer 22/04.

[Rob]

"We want to help you get out of these suburban ghettos where French politicians have parked you . . . only to call you scum later," Mr. Le Pen said, reading from prepared remarks to a small audience of locals and two busloads of journalists.

lol.

I would vote for Besancenot of the LCR. Royal sounds almost as bad as a DLC Democrat.