Nugget from 538: 99.6% Chance the Map Will be Different than 2012 (user search)

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Nugget from 538: 99.6% Chance the Map Will be Different than 2012 (search mode)

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Topic: Nugget from 538: 99.6% Chance the Map Will be Different than 2012 (Read 1535 times)

Alcon
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Posts: 30,866

	Re: Nugget from 538: 99.6% Chance the Map Will be Different than 2012 « on: July 12, 2016, 03:08:28 AM »
	« edited: July 12, 2016, 04:37:43 AM by Alcon »

Quote from: Senator Smith (Labor-MA) on July 11, 2016, 09:54:34 PM

Quote from: Atlas Before Light on July 11, 2016, 09:17:05 PM

This means almost nothing; even if the map is same, they can just say "we're in the 0.4%".

Exactly. This is just like how people tried to defend their Michigan prediction by saying "They said >99% Clinton, not 100 percent!"

I'm not saying it's unreasonable to suggest they underestimated the import of "unknown unknowns"...but you seem to be mocking the idea that something of 1% probability would ever happen? Or what?

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