IA-Quinnipiac: Clinton 51% Sanders 42% O’Malley 4%

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac poll of Iowa, conducted Nov. 16-22:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2306

Clinton 51%
Sanders 42%
O’Malley 4%

[Mr. Morden]

Who leads among…?
liberals: Sanders
moderates: Clinton
men: Sanders
women: Clinton
most important characteristic: cares about people like me: Sanders
most important characteristic: strong leader: Clinton
most important characteristic: best chance of winning: Clinton
most important issue: economy/jobs: Sanders
most important issue: foreign policy/terrorism: Clinton
most important issue: climate change: Sanders

fav/unfav %:
Sanders 81/7% for +74%
Clinton 81/15% for +66%
O’Malley 43/6% for +37%

most important issue:
economy / jobs 36%
climate change 15%
foreign policy 12%
health care 11%
terrorism 5%
race relations 4%
gun policy 4%
taxes 3%
immigration 2%
federal deficit 2%
abortion 1%

[Mr. Morden]

Well if Clinton winds up winning Iowa, Bernie wont be able to find the support in NH he needs.

The IA winner almost never wins NH.

Though the closest analogue to the 2016 Democratic race is the 2000 Democratic race, which did in fact involve the same candidate winning both states (as well as another 48 states).

For that matter, you could say that on the Democratic side, Iowa and New Hampshire have only gone for different candidates once in the last 20 years.