Democrats Must Win 30 Seats to Take the House

[henster]

If Dems take back the House redistricting reform better be one of the first bills they pass. Independent commissions for every state!

[Virginiá]

If Dems take back the House redistricting reform better be one of the first bills they pass. Independent commissions for every state!

I hope so, but Democrats have been rather incompetent on taking every option they have at fighting this. Michigan allows ballot initiatives yet Democrats have not yet filed redistricting reform there. Florida is a critical state that Republicans cannot afford to lose, yet Democrats have not backed/pushed initiatives to get same-day/auto registration enacted, nor any to give felons voting rights back (23% of adult African Americans in FL cannot vote, or basically 520,000+).

No redistricting reform initiatives in Nevada, either. No Congressional redistricting reform initiative in Ohio, either.

Makes me wonder exactly what the #*@( they are thinking.

[Mr. Smith]

If Dems take back the House redistricting reform better be one of the first bills they pass. Independent commissions for every state!

I hope so, but Democrats have been rather incompetent on taking every option they have at fighting this. Michigan allows ballot initiatives yet Democrats have not yet filed redistricting reform there. Florida is a critical state that Republicans cannot afford to lose, yet Democrats have not backed/pushed initiatives to get same-day/auto registration enacted, nor any to give felons voting rights back (23% of adult African Americans in FL cannot vote, or basically 520,000+).

No redistricting reform initiatives in Nevada, either. No Congressional redistricting reform in Ohio, either.

Makes me wonder exactly what the #*@( they are thinking.

Probably that when the get the big break, they can wreak gerrymandered vengeance on the GOP.

[Adam Griffin]

If Dems take back the House redistricting reform better be one of the first bills they pass. Independent commissions for every state!

I don't know if that would hold up without a SC composition change and subsequent ruling, but...they could potentially pass legislation that ensures there are independent commissions redistricting every ten years in between the state reapportionment periods as managed by the Constitution; in other words, redistricting every 5 years via 2 different methods.

On the other hand, that might be just as vulnerable constitutionally-speaking as your idea.

[Virginiá]

Probably that when the get the big break, they can wreak gerrymandered vengeance on the GOP.

I've thought this for awhile, but it doesn't add up anymore. Michigan has had a GOP-led state legislature for more than 2 decades, save for a Democratic State House from 2007 - 2011. Ohio is very red at the state level and Democrats have basically zero chance of flipping the legislature before 2031.

If this is really their rationale (it could very well be), then they are idiots. Greedy, corrupt idiots.

If Dems take back the House redistricting reform better be one of the first bills they pass. Independent commissions for every state!

I don't know if that would hold up without a SC composition change and subsequent ruling, but...they could potentially pass legislation that ensures there are independent commissions redistricting every ten years in between the state reapportionment periods as managed by the Constitution; in other words, redistricting every 5 years via 2 different methods.

On the other hand, that might be just as vulnerable constitutionally-speaking as your idea.

I may have misinterpreted what you said, but Congress can pass legislation to regulate redistricting for Congressional districts. They just can't do it for state legislative districts.

It's my hope that Democrats go ahead and do this ASAP, because there is no longer any reason to try and hold out in the off chance they win back mucho state governments - It's just not going to happen anytime soon. The South is mostly gone and it's unlikely (imo) that rust belt states like Michigan would be flippable in time for 2021-2022.

[henster]

If Dems take back the House redistricting reform better be one of the first bills they pass. Independent commissions for every state!

I don't know if that would hold up without a SC composition change and subsequent ruling, but...they could potentially pass legislation that ensures there are independent commissions redistricting every ten years in between the state reapportionment periods as managed by the Constitution; in other words, redistricting every 5 years via 2 different methods.

On the other hand, that might be just as vulnerable constitutionally-speaking as your idea.

There have been bills proposed by Reps in Congress requiring states to have independent commissions. I think it's constitutional or else they wouldn't be sponsoring the bill and getting cosponsors.

[Badger]

If Dems take back the House redistricting reform better be one of the first bills they pass. Independent commissions for every state!

I hope so, but Democrats have been rather incompetent on taking every option they have at fighting this. Michigan allows ballot initiatives yet Democrats have not yet filed redistricting reform there. Florida is a critical state that Republicans cannot afford to lose, yet Democrats have not backed/pushed initiatives to get same-day/auto registration enacted, nor any to give felons voting rights back (23% of adult African Americans in FL cannot vote, or basically 520,000+).

No redistricting reform initiatives in Nevada, either. No Congressional redistricting reform initiative in Ohio, either.

Makes me wonder exactly what the #*@( they are thinking.

Redistricting referendum have flopped at the polls here repeatedly in the last decade. The GOP controlled government passed some watered down redistricting reforms in the hope of dampening the call for major reform, and it seems to have worked for now.

[Badger]

Clinton would probably need around a 10 point win to have a chance at taking back the House.

Frankly, that's about what I think she'll get.

[Virginiá]

Redistricting referendum have flopped at the polls here repeatedly in the last decade. The GOP controlled government passed some watered down redistricting reforms in the hope of dampening the call for major reform, and it seems to have worked for now.

That might explain Ohio, but not, say, Michigan, whose rigged maps arguably cost Democrats as much as in Ohio, if not more.

However, given that redistricting reform passed in Ohio's 2015 elections, I would have to wonder why Democrats didn't try again this year. The public may have been more receptive to it after just approving the last one, and higher pro-Democratic turnout is a boost. Point is, Democrats cannot afford another bad redistricting cycle and they should be taking every chance they get.