Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

If I were an Austrian constitutional lawyer right now, I would already be starting writing my appeal on the Dec 4th election for, you know, the fact that some people will apparently be voting in a runoff produced by a first round where they were not qualified to vote. It makes absolutely no sense.

Nah, not really: In Austria, roughly as many people are born as are dying. Which means not only will ~50.000 first-time voters be added for the delayed election, but also ~50.000 people removed, who died in the last 8 months.

Which means the number of eligible voters will virtually remain the same. Besides, old people who died and first-time voters both lean a bit towards VdB over Hofer. So, the inclusion of the new voters won't really impact the result.

[DL]

If I were an Austrian constitutional lawyer right now, I would already be starting writing my appeal on the Dec 4th election for, you know, the fact that some people will apparently be voting in a runoff produced by a first round where they were not qualified to vote. It makes absolutely no sense.

Yes, but about 30,000 people who voted in the original vote have already died of natural causes and so their votes have gone to the big ballot box in the sky...that already makes it impossible to perfectly replicate the first runoff!

[DL]

Besides, old people who died and first-time voters both lean a bit towards VdB over Hofer. So, the inclusion of the new voters won't really impact the result.

Really, I thought Hofer's voted skewed very old and that therefore the old people who have died in the last six months would be mostly Hofer voters

[Tender Branson]

Besides, old people who died and first-time voters both lean a bit towards VdB over Hofer. So, the inclusion of the new voters won't really impact the result.

Really, I thought Hofer's voted skewed very old and that therefore the old people who have died in the last six months would be mostly Hofer voters

No, Hofer's best age-group is the working-age one (30-60). The taxpaying crowd is the most Hofer-voting, for obvious reasons. He got 55% among them, according to the election analysis survey from SORA.

Young people (16-30 year old) voted slightly for VdB (53%).

As well as old people, over 60 years: Also with around 52-53%.

[Zanas]

If I were an Austrian constitutional lawyer right now, I would already be starting writing my appeal on the Dec 4th election for, you know, the fact that some people will apparently be voting in a runoff produced by a first round where they were not qualified to vote. It makes absolutely no sense.

Yes, but about 30,000 people who voted in the original vote have already died of natural causes and so their votes have gone to the big ballot box in the sky...that already makes it impossible to perfectly replicate the first runoff!

Yes, but that happens all the time. A few hundred or thousand people die between a first round and a runoff, and that really can't be avoided, but intellectually, letting new people participate in what is supposed to be the same election is disturbing, at least to a psephomaniac and law professional like me.

[Tender Branson]

If I were an Austrian constitutional lawyer right now, I would already be starting writing my appeal on the Dec 4th election for, you know, the fact that some people will apparently be voting in a runoff produced by a first round where they were not qualified to vote. It makes absolutely no sense.

Yes, but about 30,000 people who voted in the original vote have already died of natural causes and so their votes have gone to the big ballot box in the sky...that already makes it impossible to perfectly replicate the first runoff!

Yes, but that happens all the time. A few hundred or thousand people die between a first round and a runoff, and that really can't be avoided, but intellectually, letting new people participate in what is supposed to be the same election is disturbing, at least to a psephomaniac and law professional like me.

On the one hand you might be right: People who were not allowed to vote in the first round, should also not be allowed to vote in the runoff, for purity reasons and so that the result won't be challenged again.

But on the other hand, there will be a new amended law with a constitutional 2/3 majority which will allow these first-time voters to take part in the election and even the FPÖ will support this. So, it's definitely legitimate and will almost certainly be upheld by the Constitutional Court if someone dares to appeal again ...

[Zanas]

If I were an Austrian constitutional lawyer right now, I would already be starting writing my appeal on the Dec 4th election for, you know, the fact that some people will apparently be voting in a runoff produced by a first round where they were not qualified to vote. It makes absolutely no sense.

Yes, but about 30,000 people who voted in the original vote have already died of natural causes and so their votes have gone to the big ballot box in the sky...that already makes it impossible to perfectly replicate the first runoff!

Yes, but that happens all the time. A few hundred or thousand people die between a first round and a runoff, and that really can't be avoided, but intellectually, letting new people participate in what is supposed to be the same election is disturbing, at least to a psephomaniac and law professional like me.

On the one hand you might be right: People who were not allowed to vote in the first round, should also not be allowed to vote in the runoff, for purity reasons and so that the result won't be challenged again.

But on the other hand, there will be a new amended law with a constitutional 2/3 majority which will allow these first-time voters to take part in the election and even the FPÖ will support this. So, it's definitely legitimate and will almost certainly be upheld by the Constitutional Court if someone dares to appeal again ...

Yeah I guess in that sense you can argue it was somehow the untainted will of the people's representatives, so it should be alright.

[Tender Branson]

The VdB camp got a major problem with the election delay to Dec. 4:

Contrary to the Hofer-posters, the VdB-posters all had the date Oct. 2 printed on them.

Which means VdB needs a new poster series for all of Austria, costing another 1-2 million €.

Hofer can let his campaign posters stand all the way until Dec. 4 ...

[Tender Branson]

LOL, I (like millions of others) received my election information card today - to still vote in the Oct. 2 election !

I wonder how many (badly informed) people will show up at their voting precincts on Oct. 2, just to find out nobody is there ...

[DavidB.]

The VdB camp got a major problem with the election delay to Dec. 4:

Contrary to the Hofer-posters, the VdB-posters all had the date Oct. 2 printed on them.

Which means VdB needs a new poster series for all of Austria, costing another 1-2 million €.

Hofer can let his campaign posters stand all the way until Dec. 4 ...

LMAO
M
A
O

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll (Sept. 13-15, n=600, MoE = +/- 4%):



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Jetzt-wieder-Kopf-an-Kopf/251456740

[Tender Branson]

Something I noticed in the last few days while driving around the district here:

VdB currently has like 10 times the number of his election posters along roads, compared with the original runoff. The whole district is full with them, even the smaller towns. In the original runoff, you could hardly see any in the small towns, just in Zell am See and Saalfelden - which have over 10.000 people.

On the other hand, the Hofer-posters are totally missing right now. Hofer seems to target only the urban areas so far, such as the big cities of Vienna/Linz/Salzburg etc.

I think VdB's strategy of advertising more in the rural areas of Austria is better than Hofer's, because I think it's easier for VdB to get more rural voters than Hofer getting urban voters ...

[Tender Branson]

The amended election law that was introduced into parliament yesterday btw did not include counting the postal ballots on Sunday night already. The parties could not agree on this yet, they will likely overhaul the election law again early next year. So, for the re-vote postal ballots will be counted on Monday, December 5.

But they set the new election date yesterday, included the 16-year olds and naturalized first-time voters and a new set of absentee ballots from the state printery.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ has come up with the idea that both campaigns are hitting the "standby button" for the next 2 months and cease most campaign activities.

The Greens have agreed.

http://derstandard.at/2000044485795/Kickl-schlaegt-Gruenen-Wahlkampfpause-vor

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls:

Gallup for Ö24 newspaper



Unique Research for Profil magazine

33% FPÖ
26% SPÖ
20% ÖVP
13% Greens
  7% NEOS
  1% Others

Also:

78% say they are "certain" to vote in the December 4 presidential re-vote and 76% also say that the election will finally be held in a proper way without problems.

[Tender Branson]

Polls are open for the Leopoldstadt by-election (Vienna's 2nd district).

They close at 5pm.

The SPÖ is expected to win easily, but there's a tough battle for 2nd place between the Greens and the FPÖ.

Background:

This story is almost unknown to people outside of Vienna, but the Constitutional Court did not only rule the Presidential runoff invalid and to be repeated, but also the city council election in Vienna's 2nd district (Leopoldstadt) from last fall.

The vote will be repeated on September 18.

Leopoldstadt is an SPÖ-stronghold, but the match for second place was extremely tight between the Greens and the FPÖ:

38.6% SPÖ
22.2% Greens
22.1% FPÖ
  7.1% ÖVP
  5.7% NEOS
  2.8% ANDAS

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahl/NET/BV151/BV151-202.htm

...

While city council elections are a very localized political thing, it could nonetheless serve as a trial balloon for the Presidential election, if for example the FPÖ gains and the Greens lose relative to the original vote.

The Greens have already started their poster campaign there, using the (in)famous quote from Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) during the Presidential campaign: "You will wonder what kind of things will be possible."





The poster reads:

"The ones who are not going to vote will wonder what kind of things will be possible."

[Ebsy]

Austria is a waste.

[Tender Branson]

Massive Green win in the Leopoldstadt election:

33.2% Greens (+11)
27.9% SPÖ (-11)
24.8% FPÖ (+3)
  5.9% ÖVP (-1)
  5.2% NEOS (-1)
  2.2% ANDAS (-1)

https://www.wien.gv.at/english/NET-EN/BV161/BV161-202.htm

Polls are open for the Leopoldstadt by-election (Vienna's 2nd district).

They close at 5pm.

The SPÖ is expected to win easily, but there's a tough battle for 2nd place between the Greens and the FPÖ.

Background:

This story is almost unknown to people outside of Vienna, but the Constitutional Court did not only rule the Presidential runoff invalid and to be repeated, but also the city council election in Vienna's 2nd district (Leopoldstadt) from last fall.

The vote will be repeated on September 18.

Leopoldstadt is an SPÖ-stronghold, but the match for second place was extremely tight between the Greens and the FPÖ:

38.6% SPÖ
22.2% Greens
22.1% FPÖ
  7.1% ÖVP
 5.7% NEOS
 2.8% ANDAS

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahl/NET/BV151/BV151-202.htm

...

While city council elections are a very localized political thing, it could nonetheless serve as a trial balloon for the Presidential election, if for example the FPÖ gains and the Greens lose relative to the original vote.

The Greens have already started their poster campaign there, using the (in)famous quote from Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) during the Presidential campaign: "You will wonder what kind of things will be possible."





The poster reads:

"The ones who are not going to vote will wonder what kind of things will be possible."

[Simfan34]

2 new polls:

Gallup for Ö24 newspaper



Unique Research for Profil magazine

33% FPÖ
26% SPÖ
20% ÖVP
13% Greens
  7% NEOS
  1% Others

Also:

78% say they are "certain" to vote in the December 4 presidential re-vote and 76% also say that the election will finally be held in a proper way without problems.

Red-black-green coalition?

[DavidB.]

2 new polls:

Gallup for Ö24 newspaper



Unique Research for Profil magazine

33% FPÖ
26% SPÖ
20% ÖVP
13% Greens
  7% NEOS
  1% Others

Also:

78% say they are "certain" to vote in the December 4 presidential re-vote and 76% also say that the election will finally be held in a proper way without problems.

Red-black-green coalition?

In this case FPÖ-ÖVP seems far more likely.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖVP is more likely, but nobody really knows.

[Tender Branson]

Anyway, SORA estimates the final result for the Leopoldstadt election today will be:

35% Greens (+13)
28% SPÖ (-11)
22% FPÖ (n.c.)
  6% ÖVP (-1)
  5% NEOS (-1)
  2% ANDAS (-1)

Projection includes postal ballots.

[Simfan34]

Has the cordon sanitaire been lifted? Is the ÖVP no longer traumatized by the last time there was a FPÖVP coalition?

Would the EU sanction Austria again in such a case? I doubt it, but I find the idea of sanctioning one of your own members for having the wrong election outcome hard to believe in the first place. What were these sanctions, anyway?

[Mike88]

Poor ÖVP! Why did they lose so much of their voters to the FPÖ? Is it mainly because of the refugees crisis or there's something more deep?

[windjammer]

For the record I support the alliance of rightwing and far-rightwing parties in Europe. The best way to sink them.