United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It makes no sense for the one poll to show significant movement and the other functionally none. The suspicion has to be that the polling industry has no idea what's going on...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cameron is basically finished no matter what, the only question is whether he's in a position to hang around for a few years with the Succession Question hovering endlessly over him, or whether he has to go sooner.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Internal polling data is basically trash, particularly when it comes from that firm (whatever one can say about their record at getting results right).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ICM are denying that they've done a poll recently. Hilarious.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very curious now as to what the turnout will be; on the one hand this referendum hasn't gripped the public imagination at all (even less than a GE does actually) but on the other people do seem to understand that it's important.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regarding turnout, this story has been going around today. But they probably take exactly the same precautions in general elections.

And if you read the article you note that they note that it isn't a prediction of turnout, just them being careful. But of course the headline implies otherwise (for clickbait purposes of course).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would be... careful... about reading too much into figures of that sort. The last GE the final MORI poll saw over 80% of respondents claiming to be 'absolutely certain' to vote and the final YouGov 76%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But again I really wouldn't overanalyse poll internals. Particularly YouGov ones.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Could polling companies (who are ORB anyway?) and/or the media please not edit out undecided voters when asking about a referendum?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For whatever this is worth, the ORB poll's internals are as wonky as hell and even the Leave campaign has been playing it down.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cassius makes a good point about Cameron.  His past pandering to Euroscepticism (including, tbh, the very fact that we're having this referendum in the first place) has made him a very unconvincing spokesman for Remain, however strong the arguments he's making now.

Yep. But then that's Cameron for you; all tactics and no strategy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More and more people seem to be tying the immigration and economy issues together though.

My biggest concern about all of this is that if there's a vote to leave the EU and we do indeed then leave the EU (let's not discuss the potential clusterfyck post Leave vote scenarios that might result in a different outcome for the moment) and if it is agreed that we can say in the Single Market, then what will the reaction be when it emerges that immigration rules remain more or less the same as before? There's a real element of playing with fire to this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's actuallly shocking how bad the remain campaign has been, their only argument is the economy, and that is their response to every question from immigration to sovereignty.

They haven't even called out the Leave campaign for some of their more egregious lying (i.e. over Turkey). It's borderline astonishing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another day, another poll by another sketchy outfit: OUT 42%, IN 44% - Opinium

[Filuwaúrdjan]

loooool at the last figure

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What are the figures with undecideds?

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Online poll full figures: 49/44

The phone poll is certain to vote only (which explains the low undecideds figure). For everyone it's 46 L 43 R.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The trouble with Cameron is that he's spent years drumming up the case against the EU in order to please his backbenchers (including over issues so minor that they might as well be fictional) and haggle for his fake 'deal', only now to turn around and argue in favour of it. Which is why it has been completely disastrous to have him as the media focal point of the Remain campaign (it doesn't help, of course, that 'vote this way, David Cameron says so' is not very convincing to Leftish voters who aren't sure if they're going to vote or how they're going to vote).

But anyway, if its a vote to leave it will basically be by accident, if it's a vote to stay in it will be by grudging default. And I think by now we can be sure that the aftermath will be a mess no matter what.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All senior Conservatives (the Member for Uxbridge & South Ruislip absolutely included) have sounded at best unhinged during the campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any Labour source leaking to the Torygraph is probably not someone who's opinions are worth much fwiw.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

47% is just on the cusp of 'doable' for a change option. But then its TNS. Even if it does fit the pattern of the past... day.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Surely it's possible that a lot of the don't knows won't bother voting.

Well, yes, but it is equally possible that a lot of people who claim to be sure of their decision won't either. Again, the thing about mostly watching the change % isn't because of a rule (there are no rules!) but because of a tendency. And we have nothing else to go off.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder if Saddiq Khan's election as London mayor brought home to people the fact that, for better or for worse, there are vast ethnic transformations under way in many parts of Britain, and some people actually don't want Britain to undergo this transformation, even though much of this is from non-EU immigration and Britain can already control this whether its in or out of the EU.

I really doubt that. There was more of a freakout about Khan's election from American internet users than people here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hm.  Seems like they will Brexit.

Hard to say; our polling industry is really, really sh!t. Two out of the last two General Elections wrong (and not in the same way!) does not inspire great confidence...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They've literally gone and changed methodology between polls. ffs.