My Finish Predictions - Iowa

[Inmate Trump]

Here's a place to post your predictions on who comes in first, second, third, and fourth in the Iowa caucus.  Here are my predictions:

1. Howard Dean
2. John Kerry
3. Dick Gephardt
4. John Edwards

The question is, once Gephardt is forced to drop out after losing Iowa, to which candidate do his voters go?  I would say Lieberman would be the most logical, seeing that he is closest to Gephardt's political views.  But I think more likely it would be Kerry - who would greatly benefit from a Gephardt endorsement, especially in New Hampshire.

Your predictions?

[Inmate Trump]

Is Lieberman's economic viewpoints really as leftwing was Gephardt's? Because I doubt it.

I'm looking at issues overall.

[Inmate Trump]

According to a financial futures market, Intrade.com, where investors put their money where their predictions are, Howard Dean is given a 55% chance to win the Iowa caucus, to the great dismay of those who believe in (1) a campaign with a message, and (2) preventing a conservative landslide this year. The US is becoming an ultraconservtive state and the future debate may be between conservatives and fascists.

Gephardt and Kerry both at 25, Edwards at 8.

Don't be so negative about Dean's chances; you risk hurting your party.

If you're on the ballot, you can win.  Howard Dean can win againt Bush.  (It just isn't likely right now, given Bush's popularity and a tendency of American voters to reject liberal candidates.)  But if you're on the ballot, you can win.

If this was my party primary, I would rather vote for the frontrunner with the most chance of winning the nomination...even if he/she has little chance defeating the opposition.  Better to unite quickly than to create divisiveness and hurt your chances even more.

Larry Sabato has an interesting table on his site.  Go here:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_competition.htm

Here's how he puts it....

"In modern, television-age elections (1960-2000), vigorous intra-party competition with a multitude of candidates did not hurt a party's chances of capturing the White House in many cases. But divisive nomination politics that left open wounds or exposed a party's unbridgeable fault lines did strongly suggest a disastrous November result.

"...competition that leads to major, obvious party division has always produced November defeat in both parties since 1960."

So far, the Democratic primary has been highly competitive.  We'll see it get pretty divisive if Dean isn't the nominee (as he himself has suggested).

[Inmate Trump]

I'm afraid I hope you're right about Dean finishing third. Why not help out poor Edwards and vote for him directly, huh?

Edwards?  Now there's a shocker.  He wouldn't even be able to win his own home state.

[Inmate Trump]

I can't wait to see Gephardt drop out.

Hopefully tonight....

I'm guessing he'd throw his support to Kerry or Edwards - not that that's going to help them much outside of Iowa.

[Inmate Trump]

It wil reduce the split in the "non-Dean vote" some. It would help them in MO on Feb. 3rd, wouldn't it?

It helps them a little bit, but not much.  Gephardt isn't really polling that great outside of Iowa....

It might help them in Missouri, I admit.  Might.  But that's it.

[Inmate Trump]

It could have an effect in close races. Also, it will affect the positions of unions, which could have an effect.

True, I didn't think about the unions...

But if Gephardt doesn't actually endorse another candidate, I predict his union endorsements will go to Dean - not Kerry or Edwards.

[Inmate Trump]

The sad thing is that the first Iowa results will come around by 3.30 am in Sweden...

Gonna stay up all night?  I would.

[Inmate Trump]

I'm thinking about it...there's school tomorrow though...you're in a bad timezone for having such exciting elections, why didn't those supposedly clever founding fathers think of THAT, huh?

haha... Good point.  When I become president, I'll change that!  Sounds like something Wes Clark would promise, doesn't it?

[Inmate Trump]

I'm thinking about it...there's school tomorrow though...you're in a bad timezone for having such exciting elections, why didn't those supposedly clever founding fathers think of THAT, huh?

haha... Good point.  When I become president, I'll change that!  Sounds like something Wes Clark would promise, doesn't it?

You would have my vote! Maybe so...it might upset the people actually living in your time zones...or whatever, I'm not really sure what I'm suggesting...

I'm not sure really either, but I'm going with it