My Finish Predictions - Iowa

[Gustaf]

I will make a "fun" prediction:

1. Kerry
2. Dean
3. Edwards
4. Gephardt

This prediction is biased and optimistic, but it's what I hope will happen (if I could really choose I would knock Dean down to third place, but that's too unrealistic).

I think you have a good point, GWBFan, when candidates start dropping out Dean's rivals will  benefit. Hopefully, Clark, Gephardt and Lieberman will all be gone, formally or de facto, by Feb 3rd, and then Dean goes down.

Wishful thinking? ME? No way...

[Gustaf]

Dean is dying a slow death.  Edwards still has his "5 days to change America tour" coming up.  So here it is:

1. Edwards
2. Gephardt
3. Kerry
4. Dean

All are within 5 points of each other though.

I didn't dare to be that optimistic. I hope you're right though...

[Gustaf]

Here's a place to post your predictions on who comes in first, second, third, and fourth in the Iowa caucus.  Here are my predictions:

1. Howard Dean
2. John Kerry
3. Dick Gephardt
4. John Edwards

The question is, once Gephardt is forced to drop out after losing Iowa, to which candidate do his voters go?  I would say Lieberman would be the most logical, seeing that he is closest to Gephardt's political views.  But I think more likely it would be Kerry - who would greatly benefit from a Gephardt endorsement, especially in New Hampshire.

Your predictions?

I'd have to agree with your predictions and I think Gephardts voters will probably split up and not go to any one person. Unless Gephardt gives an endorsement.

I think they will go to other candidates than Dean, though.

[Gustaf]

It's waaaaaaay too close to call.

All 4 can win and all 4 are within the MoE...
I think that Edwards might be able to pull it off as he is campaigning strongly in rural areas and as a result his numbers might be underestimated.
He also has the momentum; look at the IA polls a month ago and compare to now.

It's going to be a really close finish...

Good points, momentum can mean a lot.

[Gustaf]

Here's a place to post your predictions on who comes in first, second, third, and fourth in the Iowa caucus.  Here are my predictions:

1. Howard Dean
2. John Kerry
3. Dick Gephardt
4. John Edwards

The question is, once Gephardt is forced to drop out after losing Iowa, to which candidate do his voters go?  I would say Lieberman would be the most logical, seeing that he is closest to Gephardt's political views.  But I think more likely it would be Kerry - who would greatly benefit from a Gephardt endorsement, especially in New Hampshire.

Your predictions?

Gepardt supporters (some of them) could go to Edwards.  Especially in the south.

That means Edwards is looking even better then, since it's very likely that Gephardt is forced out after IA.

[Gustaf]

If gephardt doesn't endorse anybody, Edwards would take most of his supporters along for the ride to Boston.  But, if Gephardt does endorse someone, a sizeable anount of his supporters would go to the endorsee.

Is endorsee a word?  

"And suddenly, the messERS, become the messEES!"

[Gustaf]

What I was trying to say was the candidate who received Gephardt's endorsement.  Endorsee sounded right.  But it wasn't.  

Yeah, I realized that. I was just reminded of an episode of Friends...

You're a Jennifer Aniston fan, you should know!

[Gustaf]

If Edwards wins Iowa....
Finishes second in NH....
Becomes the anti-Dean....

Watch out W.

If he does that he wins the nomination. The essential thing is to knock out the other centrist candidates (Gephardt, Clark, Lieberman, Kerry) in time, so he can get their votes. He most likely will, and then Dean is toast. But as long as there are this many candidates, Dean will have an advantage.

[Gustaf]

A SurveyUSA poll showed that Edwards had a lead in IA if "probable" voters were included.
I'm guessing it's to do with rural voters.

That would certainly shake things up a bit if Edwards won in Iowa.  Gephardt would be out.  Dean would be badly damaged.  Edwards could become the front runner.

Yes, and it's possible. It would also make for a much more interesting race...

[Gustaf]

If Dean does manage to pull it off in Iowa, would the results of the rest of the primaries be primarily a Dean sweep, or would Edwards/Kerry still provide for an exciting race?

As SteveNick says, it depends on victory marginals. Btw, when you made 2 more posts you could register to vote in the fantasy election! We're 1 vote behind, so we need your vote for Nym90!

[Gustaf]

hey, I'll vote for who I want to . I've paid a little attention to the fantasy election when I come on here -- the debate itself is more interesting than actually voting, heh.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH! What kind of talk is that? Do you want the Republicans to win? Who's side are you on? *calming down*

OK, I suppose you could vote for whoever you want...but you'll regret it when the GOP wins again!

[Gustaf]

Since MD will go Democratic in the general, it'd be fun to be a part of an election that will actually be close )

Exactly! Come on and register!

[Gustaf]

I was referring to the MD primaries on march 3rd, but okay, I'll register, heh.

You know, I almost suspected that...

The primary might well be over by then, so I wouldn't bet on that exciting election...

So, you're making a wise choice! You will get your share of my pay raise, lol...

[Gustaf]

The way we do caucus here is absolutely INSANE.

We all go into the room, and the chair, after a while, gets us to stand in corners. "Gephardt supporters in that corner, Dean in that one, Kerry over there, and Edwards here. Undecided please head to the center of the room."

Then, every group is rated on its viability.


So, If Kerry gets 25%, Dean gets 25%, Gephardt gets 20% and Edwards gets 10%, with 20% undecided, Edwards is eliminated, and the people who voted for Edwards would be disbanded, and join the other groups or sit in the undecided area.

Now, Kerry has 30%, Dean has 27% and Gephardt has 22%.

Becuase Gephardt's group is still viable, because with the undecideds (21%) it could have 43%, therefore being ahead of Kerry.

Now, all the groups try to convince the undecideds to join them. After an hour or so, the tallies look like this:

Kerry 35%
Gephardt 33%
Dean 32%

Now, delegates are assigned. Just say there are seven.

All the candidates automatically get one automatically (caucus law) and then because they all have the right amount, they can all get 1 more delegate. The last delegate goes to Kerry because he has the most support, even if the other two were just behind him.

This sydtem is good and bad. I think it's good that it is preferential, but bad in that we will never know how many people actually voted for whoever comes fourth.

If 15% of the state votes for Edwards, that would be great for his campaign, but ity is basically un-tallyable, because no figures of who voted for whom is there. 15% would be an unviable group, so he wouldn't get many electoral votes at all.

If there were seven delegates for the whole state, then the fifteen percent would get him one.

Unfair for Edwards, good for Dean and Kerry (their competition doesn't get anything)

Anyway, I predict Kerry will win, then Gephardt, then Dean. Su[pport for Dean has just evaporated here over the last week or so, and a lot of undecideds are going to Gephardt and Kerry.

I'm voting Dean, preferencing Edwards, then Kerry.

Intersting post. Keep us posted on the Iowa-mood, will you?

I'm afraid I hope you're right about Dean finishing third. Why not help out poor Edwards and vote for him directly, huh?

[Gustaf]

Why can't you just vote?

I agree

Or at least alternate vote.

I'm actually quite a fan of the AV system; at least in theory you have to get 50% of the voters to win; its more democratic and fairer to minor parties without damaging the bigger ones (ie Greens get 8% first round, but prefrences go to Dems, so Dems don't lose anything)

You mean like they have in Australia?

[Gustaf]

Carey is Australian.

And a few others as well. (ABD?) I visited Australia during an election year, the last one, and they seemed less worked up about politics than a lot of other countries. Whether that's a good thing or a bad thing is up to your personal views I guess. The problem with it is that it's too complicated, but that's not an argument in the case of caucus voters, of course.

[Gustaf]

Carey is Australian.

And a few others as well. (ABD?) I visited Australia during an election year, the last one, and they seemed less worked up about politics than a lot of other countries. Whether that's a good thing or a bad thing is up to your personal views I guess. The problem with it is that it's too complicated, but that's not an argument in the case of caucus voters, of course.

I have never been in the southern Hemisphere.

It can be nice, if the season is right. My parents were making a business trip to Asia, so we visited Hongkong, Singapore and Australia over a period of three weeks. It was highly enjoyable, especially with elections coming up in both sovereign countries! (Though the elections in Singapore aren't very exciting...)

[Gustaf]

Well, I'm totally fascinated by Southeast Asian culture, especially Hong Kong and Japan, and it's a place I've always wanted to visit.

It is interesting...Japan is a world of its own, definitely. Very weird country, didn't really like it, to be honest. Too childish...

Have you read the Asian suite by James Clavell? (Shogun, Whirlwind, King Rat, etc) They're very good.

[Gustaf]

Have you read the Asian suite by James Clavell? (Shogun, Whirlwind, King Rat, etc) They're very good.

I haven't actually, but I'll keep them in mind. Thanks for the recommendation.

You're welcome.

They are set in Japan, Hongkong and Iran, respectively. Ans stretches over three centuries. They give good insights into Asian culture while being thrilling reads.

[Gustaf]

I've been to Canuckistan, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia.

After college, I think i'll backpack around Europe

OK, you've been to the most places then...

Be sure not to miss out Sweden!

[Gustaf]

The Iowa Poll Numbers

Kerry-------------26%
Edwards---------23%
Dean-------------20%
Gephardt--------18%

Good quote, and really interesting. Seems to dispel the idea that Dean will win due to his supporters voting more. Gephardt is in huge trouble. I alter my prediction to Gephadt finishing 4th and Kerry winning. Not sure about Edwards and Dean though. If Edwards finishes 2nd it will be a major boost for him, if he fnnishes 3rd it will still be good, but then Kerry will get more attention for winning. 1 day left...

[Gustaf]

Edwards is in strategically the best position as he doesn't need to win Iowa.
A strong 2nd, 3rd or even 4th (if it's very close) would be a huge boost to his campaign which should be enough to win SC.
It's similer for Kerry.

Gephardt needs to win (obvious, eh?), as does Dean.
If Dean fails to win Iowa whatever momentum his campaign had will evaporate.

That's exactly what I've been saying. It's clear now that Iowa will be a win for Edwards and Kerry and a blow to Dean and Gephardt, the only question is how bad will it be, since if Dean squeaks out a fair result it will hirt him less, etc. Gephardt is dead though.

[Gustaf]

I am not gonna make any predictions of percentages, it's way too close for that. I do think that Kerry will win, and that Dean and Edwards will be in the running for secon place. Gephardt wil finish 4th and then drop out.

[Gustaf]

Okay, I'm sure I'll be eating crow tomorrow night, but here are my predictions:

Dean 31%
Kerry 24%
Edwards 23%
Gephardt 18%

In any event, Dean will finish stronger than expected and Gephardt is in serious trouble.  I could see Edwards finishing second and Kerry third, but I think Dean will finish first and Gephardt will finish fourth.

Hm, it seems like everyone is pretty certain that Gephardt will go down, which is worse for him than any of the others, since he has the highest expectations on him.

Btw, wont second choices matter a lot? In a lot of places at least one of the four front runners are bound to fall below 15%. Where will those voters go? I think that they will not primarily go to Dean, and that it might hurt him in a number of places.

[Gustaf]

Something I'd like to point out if you break it down to raw stats 55% of people who win the Iowa caucus win the nomination, 11% of second place finishers win the nom. and a whopping 33% of 3rd place finishers win their parties support at the end.

So those top 3 spots are a big deal.

What are you basing this on? Dems only, or Reps as well? How far back are you going, etc. So, anyone finishing 4th place has never, ever won the nomination? Interesting...