Australia - 7 September 2013

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I'd give it to Abbott as well, although I may be a tad biased in my opinion.

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Newspoll

Primary
ALP: 34% (-1)
LNP: 47%  (+1)
Greens: 9% (-2)

TPP
ALP: 46% (-2)
LNP: 54% (+2)

On these numbers, Abbott would have to be near level-pegging as preferred PM. 3-4 off the pace AT BEST. EDIT: it's 2% 43-41% - with Abbott at -10 approval and Rudd at -19.

The Greens PV is the most intersting to me... where did it go? Lol

Now we should get Essential and Morgan tomorrow ... It'll be intersting to see if they line up... but it seems the wheels are coming off the wagon... it's funny I wonder how Gillard would have fought this election.

Gillard probably could've got 45-46.

It seems the voters just want rid of Labor.

Still 19 days to go, you don't know what will happen.

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I don't get why people vote early if they don't need to. I enjoy the process of voting on the day and all the hooplah.

So do I, Polnut and I may differ very greatly, but we agree on this! I also enjoy watching the returns on the night.

On a side note, it's been three years today since the last election.

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More Newspoll marginals polling: potential for a Coalition gain of 20-26 seats, mostly in NSW/VIC.

Question: when will the final national polls be released?

I'm fairly certain the final national polls are released a day or two before election day.

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The Newspoll of "NSW marginals" Hifly15 is actually two separate polls combined, IIRC. The 54-46 result in Robertson/Dobell a while back plus a new poll with Page, Kingsford Smith, and Eden-Monaro at 52-48. Not that that'll help us at all (as Al pointed out earlier).

Some new Galaxy polls from Western Australia and Queensland seats are out:

-Perth (58-42 Labor)
-Hasluck (55-45 Liberal)
-Brand (Not yet released, although both parties are on 42% of the primary vote and presumably there's a swing against Gary Gray)
-Herbert (55-45 LNP)
-Dawson (57-43 LNP)

My guess is that Brand would be a narrow Labor hold on those primary votes, and not surprising Labor are up 58-42 in Perth, MacTiernan is a quality candidate, there's a reason she was the only Labor MP or candidate in WA to get a swing to her in 2010.

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New South Wales - Labor seats

Grayndler - even if the Greens manage to stay ahead of the Liberals, the change to Liberal preferencing policy pretty much completely rules out the prospect of an upset that wasn't looking likely anyway.

Sydney - a very safe seat and will doubtless remain so, with even the vague prospect of a Green upset (which was never very likely) removed. I do have vague worries that demographic changes will eventually catch up with Labor here, but perhaps the current sweet spot can be maintained indefinitely.

Cunningham - Labor stronghold based around Wollongong and only ever lost in a freakish by-election during the Crean leadership (and even then not to the forces of darkness).

Shortland - safe seat in the Hunter.

Charlton - another safe seat in the Hunter, though an open seat. But with a disgraced Liberal candidate.

Hunter - another safe seat in the Hunter, this one includes a lot of natural Nationals territory that's more than counterbalanced by the inclusion of Cessnock.

Newcastle - this is, shockingly enough, yet another safe seat in the Hunter, though one that has occasionally produced a semi-wobbly margin in recent decades. It's an open seat, but defeat is basically unthinkable.

Chifley - as solidly Labor as it is solidly proletarian and will remain so even if there is another exaggerated swing in Sydney. Which, given its name, is exactly as things should be.

Blaxland - a rather ironically named division (Gregory Blaxland was a wealthy landowner and this is one of the poorest parts of Sydney) that was once the electoral fief of a man of fine cultural tastes and a charmingly foul wit. Labor hold.

Throsby - this is actually safer than its margin implies because it's rather polarised (Port Kembla and Bowral et al do not vote the same way, shockingly enough).

Watson - successive boundary and demographic changes have all been rather kind to Labor here, something not dented by the large swing last time round.

Fowler - grim banlieue upon grim banlieue and solidly Labor even in the 2011 state election nightmare. A huge swing (nearly 14pts) last time was mostly down to bizarre selection drama that reflected poorly on the ALP.

McMahon - this ought to be a safe Labor seat and will probably continue to be (and consider that my prediction), but if you were to pick a safe Sydney seat to be lost in an upset this would - given particularly grim 2011 results and the comparatively (but only comparatively!) low swing last time - perhaps be topping your list.

Richmond - a new age dawned nearly a decade ago in the most New Age of divisions. Labor hold.

Barton - ought to be secure enough. Labor hold.

Werriwa - this has been floated around as a possible upset, but it's worth noting that the large swing here last time was to a large extent due to the same absurdity that caused an even larger swing in Fowler. Notably, Labor won't have been far behind here even in the catastrophic state election. Ought to be a hold, then.

Kingsford Smith - demographic changes and a large swing last time means that this looks at least halfway vulnerable for the first time since more or less ever. Still think Labor will hold.

Dobell - circumstances are beyond atrocious and a hold seems extremely unlikely. Of course (and mentioned just because) this was also true of neighbouring Robertson last time.

Parramatta - I would give a very slight edge towards a hold here, but would not be surprised at either outcome.

Eden-Monaro - can rural incumbent strength cancel out a general swing? Again? I think so, maybe. Just about.

Page - as Eden-Monaro, but with even less confidence.

Reid - the name of Reid has traditionally (ironically) gone to safe Labor seats, but the last redistribution changed that. Still, the swing was so large last time and the division so neatly polarised that it might not be as horribly vulnerable as it looks? Nonetheless, I suspect a loss, but a hold wouldn't come as a total shock.

Banks - looks horrifically vulnerable, but is perhaps a little less so than it looks: is there really much more room for swing? The Liberals won everything here in the Great Electoral Fiasco of 2011 (of course) but not by massive margins, something that ought to cause at least a little pause. Genuinely unsure about this one.

Lindsay - too much has been written about Lindsay over the years, so I'll just predict defe...

Robertson - asking for lightening to strike twice is probably asking for a little much.

Greenway - Liberal candidate woes have turned a probable gain into something quite messy and unpredictable. Sufficiently so that I shall not predict.

Fairly close to my predictions, Sibboleth, and good work, especially for someone who doesn't live in Australia! I'll post my final predictions here the day before the election.

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Eden-Monaro is not flipping... but great work all around.

Do you think the Coalition will win Polnut? Because if you do, and Labor hold Eden-Monaro, its perfect bellwether record since 1972 will be broken! Maybe Lindsay and Robertson are more reliable bellwethers nowadays...

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Has anyone else got their Clive Palmer DVD in the mail? Got mine today, seems like he has some decent policies, although he wouldn't be my first preference:

1. Liberal Party of Australia
2. Natonal Party of Australia
3. Family First
4. Liberty and Democracy Party
5. Shooters and Fishers Party
6. Christian Democrats
7. Palmer United Party

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I doubt I'll get one...

I haven't received one. I think I might email the party and ask for one, though. Historic, posterity, and all that.

Might be a WA specific campaigning strategy, it was in the junk mail when I checked my letterbox today.

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I doubt I'll get one...

I haven't received one. I think I might email the party and ask for one, though. Historic, posterity, and all that.

Might be a WA specific campaigning strategy, it was in the junk mail when I checked my letterbox today.

I heard he sent out 4 million, but i don't know if they were electorate-specific. I also heard they were manufactured in China, despite one of the promises in them to be "we need to employ Australians to make more stuff in Australia"...

I can confirm that both the DVD and its packaging were made in China.

Was there anything his campaign had made locally?

The pamphlet that was also in my letterbox today was made in Australia, Adelaide to be precise.

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Greenway is giving me all kinds of stife... I can't quite figure out what to do with it... will the fact that Diaz is a terrible candidate counter what could be the anti-Labor wave in W.Sydney, I honestly don't know.

I have Greenway as a pure tossup at the moment, if I HAD to give it to either side, I'd give it to the Liberals.

Still extremely disappointed they preselected Jaymes Diaz again...

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What's everyone's view on La Trobe? Will labor hold?

I have that down as a likely Liberal gain, will post my predictions on Friday.

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but Denison I would like to see more polling in. If the national mood wasn't for a change of government, I think it would be a lean to Labor, but as that isn't the case, I assume Wilkie will hold on. But it's all on gut, having done any proper analysis.

Polling has shown Labor coming third here and they're preferencing the Libs ahead of Wilkie. If anyone else is going to win Denison apart from Wilkie, it will be the Liberal candidate.

Labor are preferencing the Liberals in Denison over Wilkie? Where'd you hear about this? And surely Wilkie is closer to them ideologically than the Liberals...

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*INTERNAL POLLING CAVEAT*

Rumbles that Kate Ellis in Adelaide is on a knife-edge (which probably means 2-3%), suggesting that SA could be tricky, but expect the bigger swings in the safer ALP seats, like Adelaide. The other, which seems to reflect a lot of hesitation on the part of many on Greenway, internals are suggesting it is 50/50 - but the rest of Sydney is ugly ... as we know.

I think Ellis will hold Adelaide narrowly, I can see bigger swings in outer Adelaide seats myself. Like I've said before, you'll all see my predictions tomorrow.

Abbott says he'll resign if he loses.

I can't access the article, did Abbott say he would resign from Parliament or just resign as leader?

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As promised, here are my predictions:

Adelaide (ALP 7.5%)
Kate Ellis is a prominent member of the government, although she was one of only two incumbents in South Australia to have a swing against her last time. Will depend on both the overall performance of the Liberals in SA, and Ellis’ performance as a minister. I personally think Ellis will retain, narrowly.
 
Aston (LIB 0.7%)
Labor have done well in Victoria over the past two cycles, although I expect Aston to become safer for the Liberals.

Ballarat (ALP 11.7%)
Labor retain, unless there is a large swing in regional Victoria, which I can’t see happening here.
 
Banks (ALP 1.5%)
Although very marginal, Banks had a strong swing to the Liberals last time, which may be hard to top. Looking like a Liberal gain now.
 
Barker (LIB 13.0%)
Liberal retain.
 
Barton (ALP 6.9%)
Normally a Labor stronghold, sitting MP Robert McClelland is retiring, although Labor should hold this narrowly.
 
Bass (ALP 6.7%)
Given the strong movement away from Labor in Tasmania, Liberal gain.
 
Batman (ALP 24.8%)
Labor retain.
 
Bendigo (ALP 9.4%)
Like Ballarat, the Liberals should only pick this up in the event of a large swing back to them in regional Victoria.
 
Bennelong (LIB 3.1%)
The Liberals should strengthen their hold here, despite Labor’s choice of candidate.
 
Berowra (LIB 16.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
Blair (ALP 4.2%)
ALP retain, as Labor’s situation has improved in Queensland since the last election with the return of Rudd.
 
Blaxland (ALP 12.2%)
Labor retain.
 
Bonner (LNP 2.8%)
Should become safer for the LNP.
 
Boothby (LIB 0.3%)
Although Andrew Southcott suffered a 2.2% swing against him last time, in addition to the last redistribution weakening his already slim hold on the seat, the last election was something of a high watermark for Labor in South Australia, so he should be returned here fairly easily.
 
Bowman (LNP 10.4%)
LNP retain.
 
Braddon (ALP 7.5%)
Liberal gain, even if Sid Sidebottom is popular.
 
Bradfield (LIB 18.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
Brand (ALP 3.3%)
Labor have always held this seat since its creation in 1984, although they have come close to losing it before, most notably in 1996. One to watch, although this would be significantly safer for Labor on the figures of the last state election. On current polling, Labor hold.

Brisbane (LNP 1.1%)
Not a traditional conservative seat, an LNP member for this seat would normally be an anomaly. Given the anti-Labor climate in Queensland at the moment, I’d expect the LNP to hold on to this seat, although Rudd’s return may change things...
 
Bruce (ALP 7.7%)
Although held by Labor since 1996, 2013 has seen this seat become somewhat vulnerable for the first time in a long time. Still Labor in my book though.
 
Calare (NAT 10.7%)
National retain.
 
Calwell (ALP 20.0%)
Labor retain.
 
Canberra (ALP 9.2%)
Labor retain.
 
Canning (LIB 2.2%)
Liberal retain, probably with an increased majority.
 
Capricornia (ALP 3.7%)
One to watch, given the sitting member is retiring and the still-grim climate for Labor in Queensland. Now looking like a ALP hold, particularly with the Katter vote.
 
Casey (LIB 1.9%)
Liberal retain.
 
Charlton (ALP 12.7%)
Labor retain.
 
Chifley (ALP 12.3%)
Labor retain.
 
Chisholm (ALP 5.8%)
On current polling, Labor hold, Burke favouring from being Speaker and incumbency. Would be Liberal held on state figures.
 
Cook (LIB 12.7%)
Liberal retain.
 
Corangamite (ALP 0.3%)
Should be an easy Liberal gain.
 
Corio (ALP 13.5%)
Labor retain.
 
Cowan (LIB 6.3%)
Liberal retain.
 
Cowper (NAT 9.3%)
National retain.
 
Cunningham (ALP 13.2%)
Labor retain.
 
Curtin (LIB 16.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
Dawson (LNP 2.4%)
Likely LNP retain.
 
Deakin (ALP 0.6%)
Liberal gain, particularly after the last redistribution added areas such as Ringwood to the seat.
 
Denison (IND 1.2% vs ALP)
Andrew Wilkie has been a strong member, and should be re-elected easily.
 
Dickson (LNP 5.1%)
LNP retain.
 
Dobell (ALP 5.1%)
Considering what has happened to the sitting member, Craig Thomson, over the past few years, this should be an easy Liberal gain.
 
Dunkley (LIB 1.1%)
Liberal retain, despite the small margin.
 
Durack (LIB 13.7%)
With Barry Haase retiring, this is a contest between the Liberals and the Nationals. National gain, but with no confidence.
 
Eden-Monaro (ALP 4.2%)
A bellwether seat since 1972, Mike Kelly is a strong member, although the seat’s bellwether tendencies should continue to remain true in 2013.
 
Fadden (LNP 14.2%)
LNP retain.
 
Fairfax (LNP 7.0%)
LNP retain, although Clive Palmer will likely come second.
 
Farrer (LIB 14.5%)
Liberal retain.
 
Fisher (LNP 4.1%)
Peter Slipper, like Craig Thomson, has made quite a mess of himself, and the LNP should win this one back.
 
Flinders (LIB 9.1%)
Liberal retain.
 
Flynn (LNP 3.6%)
LNP retain.
 
Forde (LNP 1.6%)
Peter Beattie’s sudden candidacy has made this a toss-up, I’d still favour the LNP here though.
 
Forrest (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.
 
Fowler (ALP 8.8%)
Likely Labor retain, although this could become quite marginal.
 
Franklin (ALP 10.8%)
One to watch, this could go either way, especially with current Tasmanian polling.
 
Fraser (ALP 14.2%)
Labor retain.
 
Fremantle (ALP 5.7%)
Labor retain.
 
Gellibrand (ALP 24.1%)
Labor retain.
 
Gilmore (LIB 5.3%)
Liberal retain, despite Joanna Gash’s retirement.
 
Gippsland (NAT 11.5%)
National retain.
 
Goldstein (LIB 6.0%)
Liberal retain.
 
Gorton (ALP 23.6%)
Labor retain.
 
Grayndler (ALP 20.6%)
This seat only has a 4.2% margin against the Greens, although Anthony Albanese is a strong member, and the Greens have gone down in polling over the past 3 years.
 
Grey (LIB 11.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
Greenway (ALP 0.9%)
Likely Liberal gain, despite the horrible choice of Liberal candidate.
 
Griffith (ALP 8.5%)
Despite a couple of polls suggesting Rudd may lose here, he should be safe.
 
Groom (LNP 18.5%)
LNP retain.
 
Hasluck (LIB 0.7%)
Likely Liberal retain, although if Labor is to gain any seats in WA in 2013, this is the most likely gain.
 
Herbert (LNP 2.2%)
Likely LNP retain, although Katter’s party and the return of Rudd could pose a significant challenge.
 
Higgins (LIB 5.4%)
Liberal retain.
 
Hindmarsh (ALP 6.1%)
The seat most likely to be lost by Labor in South Australia, I’ll go with a Liberal gain, but with no confidence.
 
Hinkler (LNP 10.4%)
LNP retain.
 
Holt (ALP 14.0%)
Labor retain, although I expect a large swing against them here.

Hotham (ALP 14.0%)
Labor retain.
 
Hughes (LIB 5.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
Hume (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.
 
Hunter (ALP 12.5%)
Labor retain.
 
Indi (LIB 9.0%)
Cathy McGowan is a strong independent, and this is now a seat to watch. If I had to choose, a narrow Liberal hold.
 
Isaacs (ALP 10.4%)
Labor retain, unless the swing in Victoria is large.
 
Jagajaga (ALP 11.1%)
Labor retain.
 
Kennedy (KAP 18.3% vs LNP)
Bob Katter should win easily, although with a swing against him.
 
Kingsford Smith (ALP 5.2%)
Normally an easy win for Labor, 2013 could see this seat go Liberal for the first time, although I’d still favour Labor here, narrowly.
 
Kingston (ALP 14.5%)
Hard to call, the Labor margin is VERY over-inflated, so there could be a large swing back to the Liberals this year. The swing will most likely not be enough for the Liberals to pick this up, though.   
 
Kooyong (LIB 7.5%)
Liberal retain.
 
La Trobe (ALP 1.7%)
Key contest, likely a Liberal gain.
 
Lalor (ALP 22.1%)
Labor retain.
 
Leichhardt (LNP 4.6%)
LNP retain, even with the KAP.
 
Lilley (ALP 3.2%)
A prize target for the LNP, Lilley will likely be a narrow Labor hold in 2013.
 
Lindsay (ALP 1.1%)
Liberal gain.
 
Lingiari (ALP 3.7%)
Normally a Labor seat, the significant swings to the CLP in last year’s NT election may be repeated here, in which case the CLP could easily win this. Current polling reflects this, and Lingiari is a CLP gain in my book.
 
Longman (LNP 1.9%)
LNP retain.
 
Lyne (IND 12.7% vs NAT)
National gain.
 
Lyons (ALP 12.3%)
Like Franklin, this is hard to pin down, it could go either way, although Labor have more of a chance here, thanks to Dick Adams’ personal vote and a higher margin.

Macarthur (LIB 3.0%)
Liberal retain.
 
Mackellar (LIB 15.7%)
Liberal retain.
 
Macquarie (LIB 1.3%)
Liberal retain.
 
Makin (ALP 12.0%)
Hard to call, the margin is quite over-inflated, although Tony Zappia is quite popular. This is an outer-suburban swing area though, and very much in play. Still a Labor hold in my book.
 
Mallee (NAT 23.3%)
The first real contest here since 1993, both the Nationals and the Liberals have a good chance here, although I’m going with the Nationals.
 
Maranoa (LNP 22.9%)
LNP retain.
 
Maribyrnong (ALP 17.5%)
Labor retain.
 
Mayo (LIB 7.3%)
Liberal retain.
 
McEwen (ALP 9.2%)
Strengthened for Labor in the last redistribution, they should hold on here, I’d expect it to go back to more marginal territory though.
 
McMahon (ALP 7.8%)
Normally safe Labor, McMahon could surprise in 2013, although since the return of Rudd, this should stay red.
 
McMillan (LIB 4.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
McPherson (LNP 10.3%)
LNP retain.
 
Melbourne (GRN 6.0% vs ALP)
The Green tide has receded somewhat, and this could be enough to kick Adam Bandt out of office. Given Liberal preferences, Labor should narrowly regain this.
 
Melbourne Ports (ALP 7.9%)
Likely Labor retain, unless the Liberal swing is very strong.
 
Menzies (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.
 
Mitchell (LIB 17.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
Moncrieff (LNP 17.5%)
LNP retain.
 
Moore (LIB 11.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
Moreton (ALP 1.1%)
Graham Perrett is fairly popular, although should lose his seat the way the ALP are going in Queensland. Rudd’s return has complicated things somewhat here. Probably the most likely LNP pick-up, if I had to go one way, I say narrow LNP gain.
 
Murray (LIB 19.6%)
Liberal retain.

Due to the character limit, my predictions will be continued in the next post.

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New England (IND 21.5% vs NAT)
Easy National gain.
 
Newcastle (ALP 12.5%)
Labor retain, although a big swing could be on the cards.
 
North Sydney (LIB 14.1%)
Liberal retain.
 
O’Connor (WAN 3.6% vs LIB)
With Tony Crook bowing out after one term, the result here will depend on the quality of the National and Liberal candidates. My guess is a National hold.
 
Oxley (ALP 5.8%)
After Griffith, the seat Labor are most likely to hold in Queensland, and they should hold here.

Page (ALP 4.2%)
Key contest, if I had to choose, narrow National gain.
 
Parkes (NAT 18.9%)
National retain.
 
Parramatta (ALP 4.4%)
Key seat, and probably the hardest Sydney seat to predict. At the moment, Liberal gain, but with no confidence.
 
Paterson (LIB 5.3%)
Liberal retain.
 
Pearce (LIB 8.9%)
Liberal retain.
 
Perth (ALP 5.9%)
With Allanah MacTiernan as the new Labor candidate, Labor retain.
 
Petrie (ALP 2.5%)
Pure toss-up, especially with Rudd’s return and its small swing in 2010.
 
Port Adelaide (ALP 21.0%)
Labor retain.

Rankin (ALP 5.4%)
Likely Labor hold.
 
Reid (ALP 2.7%)
Likely Liberal gain.
 
Richmond (ALP 7.0%)
Harder to win than Page, this could go National in 2013, although my guess is a narrow Labor retain.
 
Riverina (NAT 18.2%)
National retain.
 
Robertson (ALP 1.0%)
Likely Liberal gain.
 
Ryan (LNP 7.2%)
LNP retain.

Scullin (ALP 20.6%)
Labor retain.
 
Shortland (ALP 12.9%)
Labor retain, this would be Liberal held on state figures though.
 
Solomon (CLP 1.8%)
CLP retain.
 
Stirling (LIB 5.6%)
Liberal retain.
 
Sturt (LIB 3.6%)
Liberal retain, likely with a significantly increased majority.
 
Swan (LIB 2.5%)
Liberal retain.
 
Sydney (ALP 17.1%)
Labor retain.

Tangney (LIB 12.3%)
Liberal retain.
 
Thorsby (ALP 12.1%)
Labor retain.

Wakefield (ALP 10.5%)
Like Makin and Kingston, the margin in Wakefield is quite inflated, and could swing back to the Liberals significantly in 2013. Hard to call at this stage, although Labor retain for now.
 
Wannon (LIB 5.7%)
Liberal retain.
 
Warringah (LIB 13.1%)
Liberal retain.
 
Watson (ALP 9.1%)
Labor retain.
 
Wentworth (LIB 14.9%)
Liberal retain.
 
Werriwa (ALP 6.8%)
The fact that Werriwa is a possibility of a Liberal pickup highlights the problems Labor have had in New South Wales recently, although Werriwa should stay Labor barring an upset.

Wide Bay (LNP 15.6%)
LNP retain.
 
Wills (ALP 23.5%)
Labor retain.
 
Wright (LNP 10.2%)
LNP retain.
  
SUMMARY OF PREDICTIONS
Labor: 54
Coalition: 92
Independent: 1
Katter’s Australian Party: 1
Greens: 0
Tossup: 2

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I've updated the blank map:

2013 Australian Commonwealth Electoral Boundaries


Obviously it's in the Gallery. The relevant changes are: inset maps updated to include parts of electorates surrounding Perth, Sydney/Newcastle/Illawarra, and South-East Queensland (this is something that I am doing on new inset maps, such as the redistributed Melbourne and Adelaide, but I had not yet included it for insets in states where there had been no redistribution). Posters will recall that the previous inset maps just included complete electorates, surrounding 'partial' electorates were not included in the insets.

I have also removed the WA Nationals as a separate colour tone. Despite not sitting in the Coalition Party Room/Caucus, I believe they are organisationally affiliated with the National Party, and it is probably more correct to categorise them thus. The LNP is affiliated with the federal Liberal Party, so I have also included the Qld LNP as the same colour scheme as the Liberal Party in other states, regardless of where individual members caucus.

Thoughts and comments?

I intend to have a new pre-2013 (ie. 2010, notionally adjusted for redistributions in Vic and SA) up shortly.

Edit:

2013 Pre-Election Map/2010 Federal Election Map with Notional Margins in Redistributed States


Obviously 2CP.

The maps look good Smid, and it does make sense to have one National Party colour tone, it could always be re-used for Palmer's party, should they win any seats tomorrow.

I also assume the CLP shares the same colour as the Liberals and LNP?

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Apparently Rudd was campaigning in Chifley earlier today! I kid you not.

Are you serious? I don't think Chifley will go blue, but still... you would think he would have gone to Greenway instead.

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Final predictions. Mixture of polling data, along with some gut, because preferences will do weird things and predicting exactly what'll happen will be tough.

Queensland:

ALP --> LNP:
Moreton
Petrie

IND --> LNP:
Fisher

LNP --> ALP:
Dawson
Herbert

LNP --> PUP:
Fairfax

Senate: LNP 2 (-1), ALP 2 (-1), KAP 1 (+1), FF 1 (+1)

New South Wales:
ALP --> LIB:
Banks
Kingsford Smith
Reid
Robertson
Parramatta
Werriwa

IND --> LIB:
Dobell

IND --> NAT:
Lyne
New England

Senate: LIB/NAT 3 (-), ALP 2 (-1), GRN 1 (+1)

Victoria:
ALP --> LIB:
Corangamite
Deakin
LaTrobe

LIB --> IND:
Indi

NAT --> LIB:
Mallee

Senate: LIB/NAT 3 (-), ALP 2 (-1), WIKI 1 (+1)

Tasmania:
ALP --> LIB:
Bass
Braddon

IND --> LIB:
Denison (probably the single biggest upset I'm predicting...Labor preferencing Wilkie last here)

Senate: LIB 3 (+1), ALP 2 (-1), GRN 1 (-)

South Australia:
no change

Senate: LIB 2 (-), ALP 2 (-), XEN 1 (-), GRN 1 (-)

Western Australia:
LIB --> WANAT:
Durack

Senate: LIB 2 (-1), ALP 2 (-), GRN 1 (-), WANAT 1 (+1)

Northern Territory:
ALP --> CLP:
Lingiari

Senate: CLP 1 (-), AFNPP 1 (+1), ALP 0 (-1)

Australian Capital Territory:
no change

Senate: ALP 1 (-), GRN 1 (+1), LIB 0 (-1)

House of Representatives Total: Coalition 85; Australian Labor Party 59; WA Nationals 2; Greens 1; Katter's Australian Party 1; Palmer United Party 1; Cathy McGowan 1

Senate Total (χάος): Coalition 32; Australian Labor Party 26; Greens 11; Australian First Nations Political Party 1; Democratic Labor Party 1; Family First 1; Katter's Australian Party 1; WA Nationals 1; Wikileaks 1; Nick Xenophon 1

You don't think Lindsay will go Liberal?

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I've got the TV on, to my fellow Australians, what channel are you watching? I'm watching Channel 9 at the moment, Amanda Vanstone is on.

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Antony Green called the election a few minutes ago, the ABC have the seat tallies at ALP 35, LNP 69, Others 1. Channel 9 have ALP 1 LNP 13

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Where is everyone? I just got up to pee and check things out.

Atlas has been down so we haven't been able to post. It just got up again.

What Swedish Cheese said, a lot's been happening too!

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So, with Rudd out and Abbott in, will there be any sign of an uptick for Dan Andrews and Jay Weatherill in Victoria and South Australia?

As Solopop said, Victorian Labor are in a position where they could win government come next November, for quite a while before the federal election. Still too close to call this far out, but Labor have a decent chance of winning.

South Australia is less likely, as it's difficult to win a third term of government there, let alone a fourth. The last government in SA to win a fourth term was Don Dunstan's Labor government in 1977, and the terms were only 3 years back then.

Tasmania, the other state with a state election next year, will, barring some massive blunder, go Liberal. As I like to say, if nothing else topples a government, fatigue does.

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I think Emerson's jumping the shark here.

The shark was jumped a long time ago... Emerson and Ferguson are right, Rudd needs to be a quiet backbencher from now on, and I can see him retiring in 2016.

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Expectation is that Albanese will run against Shorten

With caucus supporting one and grassroots supporting another, apparently.

If Shorten becomes leader, I can't see him leading Labor to the 2016 election. I see him more as a Brendan Nelson style leader, i.e. you would find him in the dictionary under "stopgap leader".