Number of EU members in 2030

[Clyde1998]

A side poll to the European Union Expansion by 2030 thread.

This would be quite an interesting question - as there are a number of countries in various stages of joining the EU, countries with strong anti-EU movements and parts of current EU members attempting to become independent.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think Scotland and Catalonia will be independent, and after a lot of fluffing in Brussels, some kinda mechanism will be put in place to automatically give them entry. The constituent parts of Belgium will be so autonomous they might as well be independent states , but they won't actually separate. Albania and Montenegro will be in the union; and B&H, Serbia and Kosovo will be much closer in. Maybe after fish and oil have been depleted Norway will muse about joining, but probably not. Iceland will hold a referendum which will almost certainly fail. Ukraine and Moldova will want in, but they won't be let in. Turkey will still be in the place is it in now.

I think the EU referendum in the UK will fail, unless the Establishment Campaign spectacularly fails, which given history isn't too unlikely. Likewise, I don't think any other country will leave the EU. The EEastern countries may sometimes get angsty, but they need the union; most right-populists seem content to merely gripe about aspects of the union without leaving and the chances are lesser that a country will be forcibly kicked out of the eurozone at the moment.