Swing States

[Averroës Nix]

Nix's 2016 Statewide Presidential Race Ratings: Generic D vs. Generic R

Safe D: CA+NY+IL+WA+MD+MA+HI+RI+DE+VT+DC = 154 EVs

Likely D: PA+NJ+OR+CT+NM+ME = 57 EVs

Lean D: MI+MN+NV = 32 EVs

Toss-ups: OH+VA+WI+CO+IA+NH = 60 EVs

Lean R = FL+AZ+NC = 55 EVs

Likely R = TX+GA+IN+MO+MT = 78 EVs

Safe R = TN+SC+AL+KY+LA+OK+UT+KS+AR+MS+WV+NE+ID+WY+ND+SD+AK = 102 EVs

All D: 243
All R: 235
Toss-ups: 60

Cautionary note: My degree of certainty is low. I suspect that the 2016 electoral map might look significantly different from what we've seen since 2000.