Dutch general election - September 2012

[Tender Branson]

When will the polls close ?

Does BVN do Exit Polls ? It's the only Dutch channel I have on my cable TV.

[Earthling]

Polls close at 9, exit poll will follow right after that.

BVN probably doesn't have his own exit poll, but might publish the same exit poll as NOS and RTL will have (NOS and RTL are working together on the exit poll).

[Tender Branson]

Just watched the TV guide.

BVN will start Election Coverage in 45 minutes.

Let's hope the Social Democrats finish ahead of the VVD.

[Leftbehind]

Might be a daft question, but are the exit polls released as votes or seats?

[Earthling]

Both, popular vote and seats. We have PR here, so they can do the math.

[Tender Branson]

BVN just said that turnout seems to be similar like in the 2010 elections.

Until 8pm, 65% have voted - compared with 66% in 2010.

Final turnout was 75% in 2010.

[nimh]

Hi - new here to this forum.

I made an overview of the latest polls about the Dutch elections (all from yesterday), calculating their average; showing how that average has changed, week by week, over the last month; and adding two charts to visualize this. It has no text/explanation, but a week or two earlier I made one that had some background information as well.

I was hoping it's of interest, but I see now that I can't post links or images here yet, because I'm new. Uh-oh. How do I share them with you then?

[nimh]

Not, I suppose. Ah well ... they will be overtaken by the real election results in a bit anyway. But it could have been fun to look at the progression of polls over time, and the charts were cool. Maybe later, when I have clocked enough posts.

[Leftbehind]

You need to make 10 posts before links are accepted.

[Tender Branson]

Hi - new here to this forum.

I made an overview of the latest polls about the Dutch elections (all from yesterday), calculating their average; showing how that average has changed, week by week, over the last month; and adding two charts to visualize this. It has no text/explanation, but a week or two earlier I made one that had some background information as well.

I was hoping it's of interest, but I see now that I can't post links or images here yet, because I'm new. Uh-oh. How do I share them with you then?

Post the link like this:

example point com/nl etc.

[Tender Branson]

BTW, is your name a reference to a battery type ?

[Insula Dei]

BVN's election show is already going?

[Tender Branson]

BVN's election show is already going?

No, the turnout figure was part of the 20:00 news.

They are still showing the news now incl. the Libya killing of the US embassador etc.

The regular election coverage starts in 5 minutes.

[Earthling]

BVN's election show is already going?

You don't have NOS?

[Tender Branson]

BVN's election show is already going?

You don't have NOS?

BVN has now started the NOS election coverage here.

[nimh]

Re: Tender Branson, no, not the batteries... it's a long story :-)

Good idea about the URLs by the way, let me try this:

The latest polls, with comparisons to previous ones and charts:

i dot imgur dot com / HvG46 dot png

The polls from a week ago, with more background info:

i dot imgur dot com / nTIGX dot gif

[Insula Dei]

BVN's election show is already going?

You don't have NOS?

I have, but Tender Branson was referring to BVN a bit higher at a moment where the NOS hadn't begun yet.

Btw, anyone interested to talk about this on mibbit (#atlasforum) is more than welcome to come and do so.

[Leftbehind]

Re: Tender Branson, no, not the batteries... it's a long story :-)

Good idea about the URLs by the way, let me try this:

The latest polls, with comparisons to previous ones and charts:
http://i.imgur.com/HvG46.png

The polls from a week ago, with more background info:
http://i.imgur.com/nTIGX.gif

Linked.

[Tender Branson]

[nimh]

I tried something else too, this time. On the website of the Kiesraad, you can download a .csv file with the results from the 2010 elections by municipality. Using those results, and the average of yesterday's final polls, I've calculated benchmarks for the party results by municipality, so I can check as individual municipalities come in whether the parties are doing better or worse then the polls suggested.

Eh, that might more be electoral masturbation than actually useful, considering that the exit poll-based prognoses at 9 will already give a good indication of how the result will compare to the last polls. But it will hopefully maybe also be interesting in terms of quickly seeing what regions parties do better or worse in, in terms of gains/losses vs 2010.

[nimh]

Hey thanks, Leftbehind and Tender Branson! Hopefully of a little interest.

[Earthling]

Interesting to see. Thanks nimh.

[Insula Dei]

NOS Exit Poll

VVD  41
PvdA 40
SP    15
CDA  13
PVV  13
D66  12
CU     4
GL     4
SGP    3
50+    3
PvdD   2

[Earthling]

PvdA and VVD are dominating this election. And together they have a majority in the lower chamber.

[Insula Dei]

Roemer should resign with those numbers, I'd say.