2014 US Congressional Election Results

[nclib]

My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D.  It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers. 

This means 12-15 net pickups, with 3 for the Dems and 15-18 for the GOP.

Pick-ups

Dem

CA-31 (open)
FL-2 (Southerland)
NE-2 (Terry)

GOP

NV-4 (Horsford)
TX-23 (Gallego)
NH-1 (Shea-Porter)
ME-2 (open)
IA-1 (open)
UT-4 (open)
WV-3 (Rahall)
GA-12 (Barrow)
NC-7 (open)
IL-10 (Schneider)
IL-12 (Enyart)
NY-1 (Bishop)
NY-21 (open)
NY-24 (Maffei)
FL-26 (Garcia)

Where else am I missing? Which of these has the highest D-PVI?

[nclib]

With the 2 LA-seats the GOP will have won 120 of 160 in the South, exactly 3 of 4.

... And 21 of the 40 are in Texas (11) and Florida (10).

And just 7 of the 40 are majority Caucasian. (FL-02, FL-18, FL-21, FL-22, KY-03, MO-05, TN-05) Out of the others, only GA-13 is plurality white.

Like in the other thread, everyone is forgetting mine (NC-4). Even if we don't have a white majority, we're definitely at least plurality white.

[nclib]

Why do you think that Scott out-performed Graham?

Lindsey Graham: 672,941 (54.3%)
Brad Hutto: 480,933 (38.8%)

Tim Scott: 757,215 (61.1%)
Joyce Dickerson: 459,583 (37.1%)


I'm offering these choices as the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
(1) Conservative Republicans withholding votes for Graham or
(2) more blacks voting for Scott?

(1) can't be true since there were more raw votes in the Graham race in the Scott race. (2) could be true, but the exit polls show Scott outperforming Graham with whites.

I would have thought that Graham + Ravenel would run ahead of Scott, since Graham is a longer incumbent, and on balance is more moderate than Scott (though Graham has had some right-wing rhetoric), and that some racist whites wouldn't vote for Scott.

[nclib]

Is that the one that is half Orthodox Jewish?

What are the two blue towns surrounded by red in NE Jersey like?

[nclib]

Well, it seems as if Cochran's primary reachout effort impacted the GE after all...

Hmm, that's pretty crazy. I wonder what the result would've ended up being if Cochran's AA support stayed the same as in 08 (but with the rest of the state still swinging against him).

The Delta results could also be caused by turnout. Childers won more whites in his CD and possibly MS-4 though the latter could be McDaniel supporters not voting for Cochran, particularly McDaniel's home base of Jones County (the darkest red in the SE).