EP elections 2014

[Diouf]

I do not understand why this would illustrare the dividing line in the ALDE? Support from German FDP, Danish Venstre and Dutch VVD would indicate a more classical liberalism i.e. more rightwing. Britains Libdems are clearly more social liberal. Rehns Keskusta is and old agrarian party. Other Nordic parties are social liberal like Danish RV and Swedish FP.

I think the dividing line is now another. Graham Watson, MEP for the Lib Dems puts it like this:

http://www.euractiv.com/eu-elections-2014/watson-liberals-dividing-line-st-news-532034

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I think Guy Verhofstadt is definitely the proponent of the rapid federalist approach, while Olli Rehn represents the more gradual, slower approach. Rehn seems to focus more on carrying on with the stringent budgetary demands by using the economic instruments that are currently available instead of talking about new treaties and stronger instruments.

What parties migh support Verhofstadt? And what about the EDP part off the ALDE, who might they support?

I think the UDI/Modem Alliance in France would support Verhofstadt; the former are not currently members of ALDE yet but they seem to be joining them in the EP after the 2014 elections. I'm not sure whether the parties will merge? I think the Radicali Italiani, which are members of ALDE, will support him, and they might run together in 2014 with the Liberals from Monti's (now collapsed?) project. I think D66 and perhaps Demokratesch Partei from Luxembourg could support him as well.

Generally, the EDP parties, with Modem as the most prominent one, will probably be inclined to support Verhofstadt, but there are not that many strong votes in the EDP, I reckon.

[Diouf]

Venstre (Liberals) has just announced that they are indeed supporting Olli Rehn's candidature. Radikale Venstre (Social Liberals) has said that they haven't made up their mind yet. However, Nr 2 on Radikale Venstre's list has earlier stated a preference for Verhofstadt. Their dream candidate might be Cecilia Malmström, but I'm not sure she's gonna run. We might know that for sure once it's announced which of the Swedish parties that are supporting Rehn; I guess it's actually slightly more likely that it's gonna be Malmström's party Folkpartiet Liberalerna than Centerpartiet.

[Diouf]

Centerpartiet will support Olli. They have not Said so but I can not see any other option.

You're probably right. It would also be easier for Centerpartiet to support Rehn than to support Malmström. Maybe both of the Swedish ALDE parties will end up supporting him. I guess the Svenska Folkpartiet (Swedish People's Party) in Finland will support Rehn as well.

[Diouf]

Guy Verhofstadt now officially also running to become ALDE's front runner. According to Andrew Duff, he is supported by all Benelux parties, including VVD!. Quite a surprise, prominent members of the party recently regarded him more dangerous for Europe than Le Pen.

[Diouf]

NEOS-LIF from Austria and Partidul Naţional Liberal from Romania are supporting Guy Verhofstadt. As far as I can see ALDE hasn't yet announced how the election of their front runner will take place, only that it will be announced at 1 February in Brussels.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20131206_OTS0104/wahlplattfom-neos-lif-unterstuetzen-guy-verhofstadt-als-spitzenkandidat-der-europaeischen-liberalen-alde

http://www.pnl.ro/stiri/crin-antonescu-sus-ine-candidatura-lui-guy-verhofstadt-la-pre-edin-ia-comisiei-europene&page=1

[Diouf]

In Denmark most parties have finished their selections as well.

Socialdemokraterne (Social Democrats) have chosen Jeppe Kofoed as their lead candidate; the 39-year-old has been an MP since 1998 and is currently their spokesperson for Foreign Affairs. However, he is perhaps best known for sleeping with a 15-year-old at a Social Democrat Youth conference five years ago. He is fairly well known, but I doubt that he will be a big vote catcher. Current MEPs Ole Christensen and Christel Schaldemose are second and third, and will probably both be reelected. Last time around, Socialdemokraterne got four seats, but will probably only get three next year. If they keep their fourth seat, it will probably go to the Social Democrat Youth candidate Lasse Quvang Rasmussen or the strongly feminist current MEP Britta Thomsen who are fourth and fifth on the list respectively. I have seen Quvang IRL; he is not particularly strong on the specificities of some policies, but he is quite convincing when talking about fairness, equality, and bankers. The leader of the current MEP group and successful front runner at the last election, Dan Jørgensen, has decided not to run again, and will try to enter the Folketing at the next general election.

Venstre (Liberals) had some difficulties with finding their candidate. Their current MEP leader and front runner in 2009, Jens Rohde, was supposed to be the lead candidate again, but on the day of the selection he was rejected because he and the leader of the European Movement had written a comment for a newspaper where they argued for QMV on foreign policy decisions and a common European army. These views went too far for most of the party members, so after a few months, they instead chose Ellen Trane Nørby, an MP since 2005. Nørby is currently Political Spokesperson and thereby high in the Liberal hierarchy, and I think she will do fairly well. Venstre chose to have one lead candidate and then one candidate from each of the districts and one from the youth party. Current MEPs Morten Løkkegaard and the abovementioned Jens Rohde are running and will probably both be re-elected, while Anne E Jensen retires from the European Parliament, which she has been a member of since 1999. Venstre won three seats in 2009, and might win one more in 2014. The potential fourth MEP will be rather hard to predict among the remaining candidates; perhaps Jess Myrthu, the former co-owner of a big communication company, or the former Olympic Gold Medal winner in badminton, Poul-Erik Høyer.

SF (SPP) had a magnificent election inn 2009 and won two seats and 15.9 % of the vote. Since then one MEP, Emilie Turunen, has defected to the Social Democrats so the remaining veteran MEP Margrethe Auken will be their front runner again. She should be able to hold on to her seat, but the party will go back significantly like in the recent local and regional elections.

DF (DPP) will probably celebrate yet another success in 2014. Their current MEP Morten Messerschmidt won 284,500 personal votes in 2009, the second-highest number ever, and he will probably increase that number in 2014. He is by far the most frequently mentioned MEP; he is in all of the media all of the time, and sometimes it almost seems like he writes the articles for some of the tabloids himself. In 2009, he dragged Anna Rosbach with him to Brussels on a mere 3,592 votes, but she left the party and the EFD after two years, and joined the ECR. A few months ago, she joined the fringe environmental party Fokus, which will probably not even get enough signatures to run in 2014. This time he might even drag two other persons with him, and to avoid a repeat the party has decided to make a enhanced scrutiny for its remaining candidates, none of which has yet been made public. Perhaps they decide to run a low number of candidates, so they can better control who will get in, as it will probably not require that many votes to be the second and/or third DPP MEP.

De Konservative(Conservatives) will go back compared to the 12.7 % they received in 2009, but their current MEP, 2009 front runner and former party leader Bendt Bendtsen might just keep his seat.

Folkebevægelsen mod EU (People's Movement against EU) should face a favourable environment with the increasing euroscepticism and the high level of support for Enhedslisten. However, their fairly well-known current MEP Søren Søndergaard is not running again; instead he will run for Enhedslisten at the next general election. Their new front runner Rina Ronja Kari is completely unknown, so it might prove difficult for the movement to get more than one MEP.

Radikale Venstre (Social Liberals) did not win a seat in 2009, but they might just do that this time. Their front runner is Morten Helveg Petersen, MP from 1998-2009, and a part of the Helveg Petersen dynasty in the party.

The Liberal Alliance has not yet found a candidate, and it will be hard for whoever they choose as they might not be able to be a part of an electoral pact.

[Diouf]

Alexis Tsipras is now the first confirmed Commission Presidency candidate. He was elected by the European Left at their congress in Madrid; he got 84 % of the votes. As far as I know there were no other candidates, so the remaining ballots must have been blank or spoiled.

[Diouf]

14 ALDE leaders have signed a letter expressing support for Olli Rehn's candidacy.

The fourteen leaders are:
Juha Sipilä, Party Leader of Centre Party of Finland, Finland
Andrus Ansip, Prime Minister and Party Leader, Reform Party, Estonia
Praxoula Antoniadou Kyriacou, Party Leader of the United Democrats, Cyprus
Jan Björklund, Party Leader of Folkpartiet, Sweden
Nick Clegg, Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Democrats, United Kingdom
Carl Haglund, Party Leader, Swedish People’s Party, Finland
Ivan Jakovčic, Party Leader of Istrian Democratic Assembly, Croatia
Harry Jansson, Party Leader, Åland Centre Party, Finland
Christian Lindner, Party Leader of the Free Democratic Party, Germany
Annie Lööf, Party Leader of Centerpartiet, Sweden
Lyutvi Mestan, Party Leader of Movement for Rights and Freedoms, Bulgaria
Vesna Pusić, Party Leader of Croatian People’s Party, Croatia
Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Party Leader of Venstre, Denmark
Margrethe Vestager, Party Leader of Radikale Venstre, Denmark

These parties combined had 38 of the 84 ALDE MEPs elected in the 2009 election.

The letter: http://static.emaileri.fi/filetemp/e73169f46e7585e657a892325ebfabd8.pdf

[Diouf]

Today the EPP unveiled their procedure for finding their candidate for Commission President:

13 February (EPP Summit) – opening of the submission of candidacies; to be nominated, a candidate needs the support of his or her own member party, plus the endorsement of two member parties from two EU countries other than the country of origin of the candidate

5 March – last day to submit candidature

6 March (Dublin Congress) – review of the candidatures at the Political Assembly; validation of the candidatures and submission to the Congress for a vote

7 March (Dublin Congress) – Congress delegates vote to elect the candidate; proclamation of the candidate; launch of the campaign

[Diouf]

In Denmark, a referendum on the Unified Patent Court will be held in conjunction with the EP election at the 25 May. A 5/6 majority is needed in parliament if sovereignty is to be transferred without an referendum. Neither DF nor Enhedslisten could be convinced to vote in favour, so now we will have a referendum. The no-side not only needs the majority of the votes in the referendum, they should also make up at least 30 % of all eligible voters. If both of these requirements are not reached, sovereignty will be transferred.

The latest polling showed these results, but not much debate has happened yet:
Do you think there should be a referendum about this question?
40.6 % yes, 43.5 % no, 15.9 % don't know

How would you vote in such a referendum?
41.7 % yes, 19.5 % no, 12.7 % blank vote, 26.1 % don't know.

I think it will be hard for the no-side to reach the required number of votes, but it is always difficult to poll referendums before the real debate about the question. It is hard to predict how the referendum will affect the EP elections. It already seems that the yes-parties will use this to depict DF as someone who just says no to everything European out of principle, even when it's something which makes life easier for corporations and innovators. DF's main argument so far is the parasite argument: Danish companies would be able to get the unified patent covering the other countries anyway and then we can keep our own patents in Denmark and decide about them ourselves. Enhedslisten/The People's movement against the EU have mainly talked about the risk of many more software patents being given in a Common Unified Patent.

[Diouf]

In Denmark, a referendum on the Unified Patent Court will be held in conjunction with the EP election at the 25 May. A 5/6 majority is needed in parliament if sovereignty is to be transferred without an referendum. Neither DF nor Enhedslisten could be convinced to vote in favour, so now we will have a referendum. The no-side not only needs the majority of the votes in the referendum, they should also make up at least 30 % of all eligible voters. If both of these requirements are not reached, sovereignty will be transferred.

The latest polling showed these results, but not much debate has happened yet:
Do you think there should be a referendum about this question?
40.6 % yes, 43.5 % no, 15.9 % don't know

How would you vote in such a referendum?
41.7 % yes, 19.5 % no, 12.7 % blank vote, 26.1 % don't know.

I think it will be hard for the no-side to reach the required number of votes, but it is always difficult to poll referendums before the real debate about the question. It is hard to predict how the referendum will affect the EP elections. It already seems that the yes-parties will use this to depict DF as someone who just says no to everything European out of principle, even when it's something which makes life easier for corporations and innovators. DF's main argument so far is the parasite argument: Danish companies would be able to get the unified patent covering the other countries anyway and then we can keep our own patents in Denmark and decide about them ourselves. Enhedslisten/The People's movement against the EU have mainly talked about the risk of many more software patents being given in a Common Unified Patent.

The no side needs at least 30% of Registered Voters? Why not the yes side?

One can assume it's because the Yes got a majority in Parliament. Not the 5/6 needed to by-pass the referendum, but over 1/2.

Correct. If not enough people vote no, then the decision of parliament will be carried through.

[Diouf]

CSOP poll for Romania (2009 result). 5 % threshold for parties, 3.33 % for independents. Romania goes from 33 to 32 MEPs.

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 39 % (+8 %) 16 seats (+5)
Partidul Democrat Liberal (EPP) 19 % (-11 %) 7 (-3)
Partidul Naţional Liberal (ALDE) 18 % (+ 3.5 %) 7 (+2)
Uniunea Democrată a Maghiarilor din România (EPP) 6 % (- 3 %) 2 (-1)
Forţa Civică (EPP) 4 % (+ 4 %) ~ 0
Partidul Poporului - Dan Diaconescu (? EUDemocrats) 4 % (new) 0
Partidul România Mare (Non-inscrit) 3 % (-5.5 %) 0 (-3)
Miscarea Populara (EPP?) 3 % (-1 %)^ 0 (-1)
Partidul Conservator 1 %  (S&D) (new)*
Others 3 % (=)


~ Led by former PM Mihai Răzvan Ungureanu. Ran in an alliance with the PDL in the 2012 General Election. If they choose to do the same here, they will probably be secured of a MEP or two.
^ New party build by president Traian Băsescu's advisers, so guessing Elena Băsescu will run for them, but it might be easier for her to run as an independent again.
* Ran in an alliance with the PSD in 2009 and won one MEP. Will probably run with them again.

[Diouf]

Financial Times has more on the process of finding a new Commission President. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0607ca9e-6bf2-11e3-85b1-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2pKRcfAnP

It says this about the ALDE race

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[Diouf]

A Sova Haris Poll for Bulgaria from early January showed this result for Bulgaria. I haven't found the percentages anywhere. Bulgaria has 17 seats, one down on 2009. (compared to 2009 result):

Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) S&D 7 (+3)
Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) EPP 5 (=)
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) ALDE 3 (=)
Bulgaria without Censorship 1 (new)
Reformist Bloc 1 probably EPP (-1)
Ataka, which won 2 seats in 2009, is not projected to get any seats. Nor is the National Movement for Stability and Progress, the party founded by former Tsar and Prime Minister Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha which won two seats in 2009.

GERB is the main centre-right party, lead by Boyko Borisov who was prime minister from 2009 until February 2013 when he resigned after massive protests over high energy costs, low living standards and corruption. They lost 20 seats at the following election but remained the biggest party in the Bulgarian Parliament. BSP formed a new cabinet with the DPS, a party mainly for the Turkish minority, and the tacit support from the nationalist Ataka, which did not vote against the new government.
Bulgaria without Censorship is a new protest movement created by TV-presenter and journalist Nikolay Barekov after the many protests against corruption in the political elite.
The former EU Commissioner Meglena Kuneva leads the recently-established right wing coalition Reformist Bloc. The parties involved are quite similar to those of the Blue Coalition which won two seats in 2009.

However, on 13 January the popular MEP Ivailo Kalfin left the BSP. In the 2009 election, he received 50 641 personal votes, the third-highest number.

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http://www.euractiv.com/eu-elections-2014/prominent-mep-splits-bulgarian-s-news-532728

[Diouf]

The whole poll:




The Telegraph claims that the Lib Dems will lose all their MEPs with such an result. I believe that sounds a bit odd. I know that their support is not that concentrated anywhere, but surely they would be able to a pick up a few seats with 9 %?

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10575868/Tories-to-come-third-in-Euro-elections-behind-Labour-and-Ukip-poll-warns.html

[Diouf]

Lega Nord confirms that it will join the Le Pen and Wilders project.

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http://www.eunews.it/en/2014/01/15/european-parliament-elections-the-italian-lega-nord-chooses-le-pens-extreme-right-wing-party/11867

[Diouf]

Electionista is collecting EP polls from all member states in this document: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AoT7Lrz2HoS3dHhId09Ta0ptZzRoTE5Xa3c4OXBOQnc&usp=sharing#gid=0

The most recent one is a Iltalehti poll for Finland (compared with 2009)

National Coalition Party (EPP) 21.1 % (-2.1 %) 3 seats (=)
Centre Party (ALDE) 20.8 % (+1.8 %) 3 (=)
Social Democratic Party (S&D) 17.5 % (=) 2 (=)
The Finns Party (EFD) 15.9 % (+6.1 %) 3 (+2)
Green League (Greens) 8.9 % (-3.5 %) 1 (-1)
The Left Alliance (GUE/NGL) 7.2 % (+1.3 %) 1 (+1)
Swedish People's Party (ALDE) 4.1 % (-1.9 %) 0 (-1)
Christian Democrats (EPP) 3.3 % (-0.8 %) 0 (-1)
Others 1.2 % ( - 0.8 %) 0 (=)

Seat allocation is assuming that The Finns Party and Christian Democrats will keep their alliance.

[Diouf]

ALDE have found their candidate for the Commission Presidency.

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This resolution needs to be accepted at the ALDE meeting at 1 February.

http://www.aldeparty.eu/en/press-releases/agreement-reached-between-olli-rehn-and-guy-verhofstadt-statement-alde-party?utm_source=Press%20release&utm_medium=Twitter&utm_campaign=PR-Agreement

[Diouf]

Still a weird lack of EP polls in Denmark. However, A&B Analyse have polled for the Unified Patent Court referendum. 54 % will vote yes, 20 % no, 26 % don't know.

[Diouf]

[Diouf]

Scotland EU poll. ICM for the Scotsman on Sunday/Scotsman



Such an result will mean three SNP MEPs (+1), two Labour MEPs (=), and one Conservative (=). Lib Dems will lose their MEP.

[Diouf]

With the percentages you currently have for the Netherlands, and if alliances are the same as in 2009, then the outcome will be:

VVD 5
PVV 5
D66 4
PvdA 3
SP 3
CDA 3
50+ 1
CU 1
GL 1

VVD are in ALDE, CU in ECR, GL in Greens. Don't know what the 50+ will do; their lead candidate is Toine Manders, a long-time VVD MEP.

Electoral threshold is 100/26 = 3,85 %

[Diouf]

AFD (Germany) is expected to join the ECR, PSL (Poland) is a part of the EPP, UPyD (Spain) are non-inscrits now, Jobbik (Hungary) and Golden Dawn (Greece) are non-inscrits and I believe EAF have refused them.

The PSOE (Spain) seem to be missing in the results section.

I also think you should look at some the Euro-specific UK polls; I think a few have been posted earlier in this thread. UKIP and the Conservatives' results will probably be the other way around.

[Diouf]

Ulla Tørnæs, New Venstre front runner in EP elections

New lead candidate for Venstre (Liberals) in Denmark. Ellen Thrane Nørby had been picked as the lead candidate, but she has become pregnant and therefore decided not to run. She will be replaced by Ulla Tørnæs, an MP since 1994 and a former Minister of Education and Minister of Development. Quite a downgrade I will say; there are still no EU polls from Denmark, but it's not unlikely now that DF (DPP) could actually end out on top. Nørby and Tørnæs ran in the same multimember constituency at the general election in 2011; Nørby received 18 059 personal votes, Tørnæs received 9 125. Also Tørnæs' reputation has been hurt by the recent local elections in Denmark. She was the Liberal front runner in Holstebro, which ended up as the only municipality in Western Denmark without a Liberal mayor. She improved the Liberals' poor 2009 showing with 4 %, but that was mostly because the race turned presidential between her and the incumbent Social Democrat mayor, so she gained a bit from the other right-wing parties. Tørnæs was widely perceived as a candidate without much local knowledge who had been parachuted in, which made many rally around the incumbent mayor, whose social democrats surged forward to 44 %, a 16 % improvement.
As described earlier, Venstre (Liberals) had some troubles in finding their lead candidate in the first place, so it has of course been even more difficult to find someone this time with a relatively short notice. Tørnæs was probable quite easy to convince, but I'm doubting that she can convince the voters.

[Diouf]

Zeit writes that several high-ranking AfD members have had negotiations with UKIP regarding cooperation after the elections. However, their front runner Bernd Lucke prefers to cooperate with the Conservatives and has been highly critical of UKIP: "On the theme of immigration, I don't like the tone that UKIP is using. You can incite people in that way". According to the article, the matter will be decided by party members, presumably by a vote. It doesn't state whether this vote will happen before or after the election.

http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2014-01/afd-briten-ukip-kooperation