Tradesports Senate numbers

[NHPolitico]

New numbers

Safe Democrat: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
OH 94.8
WA 93.0
MN 92.9
PA 92.0
RI 90.4
MI 90.1
NJ 86.0
MD 68.2
MT 67.0
VA 57.0
MO 51.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 25.0
AZ 16.0
NV 5.0

VT Sanders Safe
CT Lamont 4.4

These are basically the percent chances of a Democrat outcome in the races, right? If so, I really am surprised that Webb is given a 57% chance to win the race because that seems high to me.

[NHPolitico]

Correct. It's based on how people are willing to bet, of course, which doesn't necessarily correspond to the reality of what's likely to happen. But I would say Webb having a 57 percent chance isn't far off personally. I guess it all depends on whether you buy into the idea of a "wave".

I think if I had to give pro-Democrat odds (because I see Allen retaining his seat because the state is still GOP-friendly and Allen hasn't voted in a way that it that outside of the majority of voters in VA), I'd lower them to like 53%-- just a bare positive edge.  I can't see Webb beating Allen by more than a point if he does beat Allen-- though maybe you could say that the dynamics that would have to be in place to cause Allen to lose could be of the "wave" nature that you refer to and that the result of that would be a much more expanded margin of victory than seems likely.

[NHPolitico]

More movement

MT 63.8
VA 59.0
MO 54.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 18.0
AZ 13.0
NV 5.0

GOP Senate: 68.5%

So, Ford is freefalling and Burns is making a late push. Yeah, I'll buy that.  I still don't understand what would cause movement of any kind in VA.

[NHPolitico]

Just today, for (I think) the first time on Tradesports, Webb is now rated as having a better chance of winning than Tester.  That is, both MT and VA are still listed as slight advantage-Dem, but MT is now rated as being closer than VA.

Allen's biggest problem is the high number of male voters who will vote for Webb. I think Webb is by far a better bet than Tester.