New Tradesports rankings

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I closed out my position on Romney today, and really wish I had gone with my gut to pour more money into Huckabee yesterday when I was considering it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Huckabee now at 17.0, another all-time-high.  That's a gain of 3.6 in a day.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Of course, it's all because of this: Rasmussen National: Giuliani 18% Huckabee 18%

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Al Gore

p.s.   buy Romney hardcore

Psh, I just finished selling Romney.  (And just in time!)

I think Huckabee might be a buy at 18 still, and McCain is worth picking up as a hedge for when Romney loses Iowa.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If Huckabee gets any higher, I need to quit my day job and do this full time instead.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Giuliani is so overvalued it hurts...

But risky.  You're betting $59 to win $41.

The smarter play to bet against Giuliani is to just buy Romney and Huckabee (and Thompson and McCain if you want to play it ultrasafe, though I doubt there's any realistic chance Thompson can become the consensus conservative choice now that Huckabee is rising through the South).

Selling Giuliani costs 59.  Buying the two big names costs only 41.  Buying all four big names costs you 53.4, which is still cheaper.

(Throw in Paul, and you're STILL cheaper than selling Giuliani at 59.  The only way you lose is if the Rice bettors are actually time travelers from the future.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The Boston Globe also endorsed McCain today.  I have no idea what it's readership is in New Hampshire is, though.  (Probably not especially high.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

McCain's being overrated right now. No doubt about it.

Well, yeah, at this point.  A McCain jump was long overdue, but the market went overboard.  Newspaper editorials don't readily translate into votes.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Btw, Giuliani is still absurdly overvalued to win the FL and PA primaries.  50.0 to win the former and 71.2 on the latter.  Shorting him on both of those is a great deal.

Excellent point on Pennsylvania.  I just sold 16 of Giuliani to win there—basically, the money I just made on that incredibly well timed NH Senate trade.

There's still four shares left sitting out of Giuliani to win at 70.  You're risking $3 each to win $7.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

McCain's route to the nomination is simple: clean up on Super Duper Tuesday.  This only works if Giuliani is absolutely and totally trashed in the primaries leading up to it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

McCain's route to the nomination is simple: clean up on Super Duper Tuesday.  This only works if Giuliani is absolutely and totally trashed in the primaries leading up to it.

And if he has any money other than spare change under his couch, which he currently doesn't.

A win in New Hampshire sends McCain's fundraising through the roof.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

To expound on my last point, and give more specifics:

For McCain to win the nomination, the current surge needs to be real, and not only last through to the IA/NH voting, but grow in the meantime.

IOWA
Huckabee needs to win this thing by a huge margin over Romney.  That part is clear.  But, to maximize McCain's potential, he needs a very strong showing in the state, preferably as the anti-Huckabee.  McCain ideally needs to finish second, and it sure as hell wouldn't hurt for Ron Paul to sneak his way into third (unlikely, put possible) or at least fourth (doable).  Romney needs to finish third.  Rudy needs to finish fifth.

NEW HAMPSHIRE
With Iowa behind the candidates, McCain should get a small boost in the polls, thanks to Romney and Giuliani voters falling off their respective bandwagons.  Ron Paul would probably pick up some strength, and Huckabee might get some extra votes too (but not enough to win).  When it comes time for the actual vote, McCain needs a clear-cut win.  Romney losing here should all but finish him, and if Giuliani finishes low enough, his supporters in other states may begin to drift off and start looking at McCain.

(Thompson who?)

BEYOND
If the first two pieces fall into place, Giuliani will be largely out as a candidate, left to hope for a Super Duper Tuesday miracle, Romney will be largely finished (he's betting everything on IA and NH), and Paul never had a serious shot at the nomination anyway.

It'll be down to McCain and Huckabee.  If this happens, McCain will become the default nominee of the big moneyed interests, specifically the Club for Growth types who find Huckabee loathsome.  The new nationalized primary schedule helps McCain, and should largely deflect a big loss in South Carolina to Huckabee.  The new money should help him be able to pick up the states Giuliani is hoping to—winning California, Michigan, and the rest, losing only the states in the deep south.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Anyone want to predict what the nomination markets will look like 48 hours from now, the day after Iowa?  Or better yet, what kind of Iowa results would be required for the Intrade "frontrunner" in each party to switch to a different candidate?  Is it possible that Clinton loses so badly tomorrow that she loses her lead on the Intrade Dem. nomination market?  How badly would she have to lose for that to happen?  How well does Romney have to do tomorrow in order to surpass Giuliani on Intrade?  And are there any scenarios that would put McCain or Huckabee in the lead in the GOP nomination market after tomorrow night?

My guess is that Huckabee narrowly carries Iowa, and gets an immediate boost back to where he was—around 20.  A solid chunk of that is gonna come from Romney and Giuliani, who should wind up down near the bottom of the pack (maybe even behind Paul).  McCain may drop slightly if his numbers are weak, but I expect he'll do "better than expected," which should leave his numbers largely stagnant at the low-20s.

For Romney to surpass Giuliani, I think he needs to seriously trounce Huckabee.  Probably to the tune of 15 points.  And Rudy would, again, need to finish at the bottom of the pack.

Clinton's value at 66 is unsustainable.  If she wins Iowa, that number is gonna bounce up to 80.  If she loses Iowa to Obama, she's gonna drop to 50 or lower, with Obama gaining the slack.  If Edwards wins Iowa, he's gonna bounce up to 25 or better, with sizable chunks coming from Obama and Hillary.

If Edwards loses Iowa, the price per share is gonna drop by around 75%.  Unless it's a near miss second place finish to Hillary, which might even boost his shares at the expense of Obama.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And for Clinton to lose her lead, she's pretty much got to come in third in Iowa, and outside the margin of error at that.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Seriously.  Clinton under 30 is a terrific bargain.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Seriously.  Clinton under 30 is a terrific bargain.

After she loses NH, it'll fall under 20.  Personally, I would be waiting for somewhere around 15 to start buying again.

Now might be a good point to repeat that Clinton under thirty was a terrific bargain. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Giuliani's numbers are holding steady, I'd guess, because there's no presumptive GOP nominee at this point, which is what his campaign was banking on.

Romney's numbers are still around a reasonable (IMHO) 11.5 because there's still an off-hand chance (about a 11.5% chance, even!) that he could win Michigan and turn things around.  Neither McCain nor Huckabee have an effortless road to the nomination at this point.

McCain's numbers seem a bit too high at the moment, though I'd never short him.  Huckabee's numbers seem a bit too low.  I'm holding my Huckabee shares, and may look into buying Clinton as South Carolina/Nevada approach.

Shorting Giuliani to win Pennsylvania was a great move.  It's down to 50 from 70 a few weeks prior.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Just what is it going to take for Giuliani to drop down to ~10 for the nomination?  Does he have to start winning negative delegates?

Just takes some patience.  He's already down to 20 as I write this, with bids in the teens.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Almost all my money on RCP's mock InTrade is shorting Giuliani now. I want him dropping faster.

I shouldn't have cashed out my shorts on Fred Thompson as the winning individual so soon. I made a nice profit on that but it would've been even higher now. I shorted back when it looked like Thompson had a great shot at winning the nomination on the grounds that he'd never win the general in a million years (I have to chuckle in hindsight at the GOP hacks who thought he'd be a fantastic candidate).

The way you write that, it sounds like a significant portion of Republicans actually thought Fred Thompson was a good candidate.

If that was the case, he might have cracked 20% in a poll sometime!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't know.  A Romney win in Michigan is too easily written off as a product of his family ties there, or further written off on an organized Democratic effort to pick him as the weakest candidate.  He'd have to absolutely decimate expectations to get his way back into contention.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

McCain is dropping hard now, and Romney is surging (perhaps because reports of light turnout in MI has people thinking Romney will win there?):

McCain 37.0
Giuliani 20.0
Romney 17.8
Huckabee 11.9
Thompson 3.1

Huckabee's tumbled too.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I did some re-evaluating of my Intrade account a few days ago.

I'm out of Huckabee all together now.  I should have gotten totally out a bit sooner, but I was playing with "free" money anyway—I more than made back what I paid for it by selling in the high teens.  Sold my last piece of the Huck at 4.3, which is still more than I paid post-Ames.

My current positions:
5 long on Clinton to win the nomination (bought at 55.8, now 66.0).
25 long on Richardson to win the nomination (a longshot bet bought at 2.8, now 0.1).
10 long on McCain to win the Presidency (bought at 18.8, now 19.1).
10 long on Sununu to win his race (bought at 33.4, now 41.0).
3 long on Clinton to win South Carolina (bought at 25.0, now 14.3).
7 short on Giuliani to win New Jersey (shorted at 50.0, now 40.0).
17 short on Giuliani to win Pennsylvania (shorted at 68.0, now 25.0).
About $7 in cash reserve.

That puts me up about 67% or so since the November 2006 elections (84% lifetime).  I should do this for a mutual fund or something.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

get out of Sununu now that you're up....  it's not worth the fight...

It's not a hold until expiration type contract like Clinton to win the nomination or Giuliani to lose Pennsylvania is.  It's a short-term contract that I've made most of my profits thus far on.  I don't like risking that much money on a coinflip.

If only it was that easy.  Liquidity is low on such contracts.  I'd have to take a loss to sell now, despite currently being up by a buck per contract.  I've got an order to sell in at 52.  If I wait long enough, it'll likely sell at that price.

I bought 25 or so at 33.3 and sold at 50+ when the last poll had Sununu up over Shaheen.  And if there was more for sale now at 33.3, I'd buy it in a heartbeast.

According to Intrade, I have made $73.35 of profit so far by trading in the New Hampshire Senate race.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

As far as FL is concerned Bush needed McCain in 2004 to help him win FL against John Kerry no big surprise in the polls. And until the last week, CA had all but decided to vote for McCain until the comment about Jerry Falwell got McCain into trouble. Independents vote in CA so McCain should win.  But good news for the Dems, the person that's handling the ballot of splitting the electoral votes is connected with Giuliani. Should he not win, it could spell defeat for the CA ballot initiative.

I don't think anyone's expecting that thing to pass anyways.

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

The market is just giving him the benefit of the doubt.  He'll finish cratering post-Florida.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

New product, effectively. Once tested, the numbers will soar or plummet.

Yep.  Hard to tell right now, but I suspect if Giuliani loses FL (which is in no way a certainty) it will effectively become two-person. 

Huck is done, quite frankly - scaling down operations in Florida shows real weakness to me. He'll probably continue, however, and keep trying to garner delegates in the hope of a brokered convention, which will only possibly happen if Giuliani wins FL.

I'm not so sure that's the case; if Romney wins Florida, it might throw off enough of McCain's momentum for Giuliani to regain his footing in NY and NJ, at least.

He can't win based on that alone.