Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Zanas]

I've gotta say, "strength in democracy" ranks along with "True Finns" and "Party for the Future Generations" as some of the most unbelievably creepy names you can give your party.

Well the original French name is "Forces et démocratie", so it should have been translated to "Strengths and democracy", which is only slightly less idiotic, but can refer to various strengths of the territories, expressed via democracy.

Oh and "True Finns" were never actually "true" Finns. Their name translates better as "regular Finns", "plain old Finns", "John Doe Finns".

[Zanas]

Have we posted Abacus yet?
http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-ndp-leads-but-70-of-voters-up-for-grabs/

NDP - 35%
CPC - 29%
LPC - 26%

NDP - Strong Lead in PQ, small Lead in ON and BC (by two points) ON still three-way tie
CPC - Strong lead in the Prairies (AL, MAN, SASK)
LPC - Still strong lead in Atlantic, NDP is less then 10 Point behind though

the most "Really Liked" outcome is NDP Majority; the most over all Liked is NDP working with Liberals (sorry Justin)

What has the Parti québécois to do with this ?

[Zanas]

The Greens are not at 33% on Vancouver Island, folks. They are doing quite well there, yes, but not 33%. They won't even win Victoria.

Yeah, in Al's absence, I will be the one advising caution against small local sub-samples today.

[Zanas]

NDP polling higher in MB/SK than in BC also strikes as a bit odd to say the least.

However, we've now seen a few polls with quite a surge for the NDP in Quebec, haven't we ? I think it's been 3 showing them over 50%. Would that make for a perfect sweep there ?

[Zanas]

Jumping on the bandwagon for a compass, I took Quebec as well and here goes, weighing the questions by importance :


GPC 77%
BQ 75%
NDP 72%
LPC 59%
CPC 31%

Bloc was even first without weighing ! But I'd surely vote NDP in most of the nation's ridings.

[Zanas]

... speaking of Riding level polling to be taking with a grain of sail, CROP has the NDP leading... Papineau
NDP - 46%
LPC - 35%
BQ - 10%
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/trudeau-in-trouble-in-papineau-riding-poll-1.2568576?hootPostID=7b14fa55793444883a6592832cbc868a

Junk poll!

I know it's a thing on this forum, but you don't accomplish much except annoying everyone by just shouting that. Do that on the US 2016 election boards, not here. You could at least have pointed out that the poll had a sample of only 375, which sets the MoE above 5%, which indeed makes it a rather dubious poll.

[Zanas]

I have heard that the Liberals vote in Quebec is being limited by the fact that they are led by a Trudeau, due to ongoing animosity towards his father. Is this true, do Quebecois still resent him enough not to vote  for his son?

I think to most <40 people he's just an airport. Low information voters are really a thing.