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If I’m seeing it right looks like their SC fully legalized it at the end of April?

“Because midterms are different and a bunch of low propensity Trump voters who don’t vote in midterms will show up in 2024”

There may be some truth to this but it’s too superficial for my liking

There's no truth to it. Republicans beat out Democrats by turnout in 2022. They won by persuasion. But there may be some truth to the notion that independents are more willing to vote for a generic Democrat than Joe Biden.

[consistent]

Red avatars need to get real. Biden has been down in almost every poll lately, and is down worse in swing states. You can't just junk every poll and claim they are all poor outfits. Biden is very obviously down as evidenced by a wide array of polls and is on track to lose not only the EC but the popular vote as well.

He has not lead in the 538 aggregate once nor has he led in the RCP tracker since last OCTOBER. And yes RCP is very partisan but the fact remains he is behind. They were right leaning in 2020 too but still showed a consistent Biden lead.

Midterm performances and special election results are not the same as a presidential election, stop using that as a retort to Biden's poor polling.

Weren’t you fairly optimistic on Biden’s chances a month ago?

Biden narrowly. The fundamentals are starting to take shape. The economy is not in a bad place, inflation isn't blowing up, and Trump's legal troubles are becoming highly publicized.

I'm not sure if this is news to you but some people change their minds when presented with continuing data. Trump's trial clearly isn't changing minds, people are less sanguine on the economy than I figured they'd be, and Biden's polling just sucks. Also, I wasn't predicting a safe Biden victory, I said "narrowly" and I still hold that's possible. However at this point I think a loss is just more likely.

How did that strategy work for Hilary Clinton?

I think your mistake is in assuming that politics is static. It may be just anecdotal data from me, but I determine the mood of Democrats collectively from politicalwire.com. When Hilary Clinton made those comments in 2016 there were an enormous number of 'civility Democrats' who chastised her for those comments. Maybe the 'civility Democrats' just don't go there anymore, but I think Democrats collectively are no where near as interested in civility/bipartisanship as they used to be following on 8/9 years now of Donald Trump and they certainly don't care anymore about the opinions of media commentators. Of course, many in the media who went after Hilary Clinton were, not surprisingly, swept up in Me Too.

So, I don't know who you're expecting a backlash from anymore other than maybe Joe Manchin and some of the media who most Democrats now recognize only pretend to care about civility in order to criticize Democrats, people like Chris Sillyza.

Yawn. I don’t expect Biden to match Hassan’s 2022 margin in New Hampshire, but if this doesn’t give you 2022 flashbacks…

https://nhjournal.com/shock-poll-trump-tied-with-biden-in-solid-blue-new-hampshire/

Drop out of running for president, or go to jail.

Would that be legal/constitutional?

 

Of course it would be legal and constitutional. But Trump would most likely not honor his end of the deal

How would it be legal to tell a candidate 'do what I say and give me my preferred political outcome, or go to jail'? That to me sounds like a bribe. Do you not recognize that that is  not the American standard of politics, but rather the standard of third world countries? Secondly, do you not recognize what sort of dangerous precedent that would set for future candidates of both parties? An incumbent could force any opponent out of a race by legal force or threat thereof. That's dictatorship.

I know there's likely a low probability of it, but then again in 2014, I think most here would've agreed a Trump presidency in and of itself was a low probability.

As a running  mate, she would fulfill two things of value to Trump: She's loyal, and she's an attractive woman.

The moderators need to do something about this poster Obama24. This post is complete nonsense

Are you arguing that Trump doesn't value personal loyalty to himself above all things, or that he doesn't value a woman based on her physical appearance? Perhaps you read the post wrong. I didn't say they would fulfill objective categories of value. I said they would fulfill two things of value TO Trump. It's well documented he loves unwavering and almost lapdog-esque loyalty. He wanted generals iirc to swear an oath or some such to him. He also bases a woman's worth on her looks. He also has said very weird things about Ivanka. All of these are documented facts of record.

If Trump wins and does a good job in his second term then I will gladly support him if he wants a third term. There might be a way around the 22nd Amendment by nominating a puppet Republican nominee and putting Trump in as VP and market the ticket as Trump's 3rd term. Then if they win, the President resigns, and Trump takes power. This would likely have to go to court because the 22nd Amendment talks about being "elected" specifically but not necessarily the office itself.  

That violates everything our country stands for. No.

This is useful knowledge but does not tell anything about the distribution across wealth percentiles by itself. The stock market performance will impact the average and the median extremely differently, so I don't want to draw conclusions from that average, although it is a reasonable explanation that people spent down excess savings.

I think the better evidence was actually presented by The Economist, which disaggregates the jobs data and shows the jobs losses at established firms as still net negative since COVID. Most people prefer the benefits and pay of an established business over a start-up and are struggling to find so called good employment in a number of white collar industries.

I won't say that is a certain conclusion - because preferences could just shift away from big corporate roles too - but that never quite matched what we see in headlines with involuntary job cuts. DFB similarly posted that public perception of job availability is quite poor this year after the hot job market of 2021-22.