The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nobody is calling anything yet, but it looks good for a runoff. Cochran is winning in Jefferson, Warren, and Hinds county. Cochran is ahead in Rankin county, but it's very close and 68% of the vote is already in. Holmes still out but shouldn't be much of an influence on anything. Everything else is in.

Meant to write McDaniel, sorry.

McDaniel is ahead according to Politico with 68 percent in from Rankin.

Could Thad win the runoff?

If Carey voters go for him, sure.

[cinyc]

It probably won't take to long for other outlets to predict a runoff in Mississippi. 

Probably not.  There are likely at least 6,000 votes out from Rankin County - and perhaps as many as 9,000, if turnout was higher than 2012 - without any way to know which part of the county is out.

[Morning in Atlas]

False alarm, guys. Hernandez's lead is because of a counting error in CA-21.

[Donerail]

Could Thad win the runoff?

Carey voters aren't really any kind of cohesive group. It won't come down to who wins the Carey voters. It'll come down to whether olds or Tea Partiers are more motivated to vote in a low-turnout election. I'd give the edge to McDaniel, especially with no MS-04 runoff.

[7,052,770]

Could Thad win the runoff?

Yes, but I doubt it. McDaniel's voters are a lot more fired up, especially now.

[Never]

Weird, AOSHQDD has McDaniel up to 49.97%, and Cochran at 48.43.

[LeBron]

CA-07: Almost 50% and Ose leads Birman 26-15.

Dang. This sucks for Bera, then.  CA-52 had a lot of crossovers with a contested GOP primary and DeMaio is likely to face Peters on that end. CA-31 has Chabot easily going to the runoff, but too close to call between Aguilar and Reyes. I'm crossing my fingers for Aguilar. Nearby in CA-33, our worst fear of Williamson (I) making the runoff is not going to happen (thank God). Elan Carr is going to the runoff against either Wendy Greuel or Ted Lieu. And not that it matters, but it looks like John Dennis will be the lucky GOPer to get squashed by Pelosi.  Peiser is going to be the Dem nominee against Issa.

The Tea Party is also failing on a statewide end in CA to with Donnelly who trails "liberal" Republican (as Mark Levin refers to him as) Neel Kashkari by more than 53,000 votes, but Donnelly still has time to make that up.

AP also projects John Lewis to win the Dem primary in MT-AL district. The GOP Primary is still way too close to call, but Zinke is starting to pull away from Stapleton and probably has the advantage as the Chamber of Commerce-backed and candidate with the most $. Unfortunately, while Lewis has a better chance at winning with Zinke, it would have been awesome if Tea Party darling Rosendale got the nomination, but he's in third right now.

And 98% is in from MS-Sen with McDaniel at 49.6%. It looks like it's going to a runoff, but with lower turnout from Cochran supporters and McDaniel's camp still likely to show up in big numbers, it's time to primary Cochran (in 3 weeks)!

[Never]

Could Thad win the runoff?

I don't think so. It seemed like Cochran had a hair of a lead coming in to this evening, yet McDaniel is consistently leading over him as the results arrive. Plus, McDaniel's voters are probably more likely to turn out and vote for him, while Cochran's supporters are probably demoralized.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

False alarm, guys. Hernandez's lead is because of a counting error in CA-21.

Great. We've got one commissioner asleep, one commissioner sitting at their desk doing nothing (Holmes county in MS), and one commissioner that can't report votes correctly.

[cinyc]

From the current AP results, if there are 6,000-10,000 votes outstanding, McDaniel would need to win 65.6%-61.0% of them to avoid a runoff.   Not likely, based on the partial county results where the vote is out, but I doubt the AP will call a runoff without seeing more Rankin County results, in any event.

[Never]

False alarm, guys. Hernandez's lead is because of a counting error in CA-21.

Great. We've got one commissioner asleep, one commissioner sitting at their desk doing nothing (Holmes county in MS), and one commissioner that can't report votes correctly.

In other words, a sloth, seat-warmer, and a possible remedial math candidate?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Looking like Doug Ose will beat Birman in CA-7. Jury's still out on whether Dems advance in CA-25 and CA-31.

Preferably Gomez-Reyes beats Aguilar, but Gooch loses.

Ugh California...

Wait, it gets worse.

Two Republicans lead in the Comptroller's race.

Top 2 sucks bad, but California always looks much more red in the early results.  I'll never forget 8pm PST election day 2000. Bush beating Gore 60-40 while it was immediately called for Gore.

CA-15: real Democrat fighting Republican for 2nd place
DINO Swallwell 49.1%
Democrat Corbett 25.7%
Rep Bussell 25.2%

[Miles]

CD4 is cancelling out 2 and 3.



These aren't the exact CDs, but I "rounded" to the nearest whole county. Hinds and Madison are actually split; I gave all of Hinds to 2 and Madison to 3.

[Morning in Atlas]

Well, if Cochran won CD-1, things are looking better for Childers.

[CatoMinor]

CD4 is cancelling out 2 and 3.



These aren't the exact CDs, but I "rounded" to the nearest whole county. Hinds and Madison are actually split; I gave all of Hinds to 2 and Madison to 3.

McDaniel won that CD by a higher margin than the incumbent congressman from there. If He won a decent chunk of the Taylor vote then a former Dem may be the reason the Tea Party picks up a Senate seat haha.

[Never]

No results from Holmes, perhaps something is wrong there?

[Morning in Atlas]

And no CA-31 update for two more hours. Night, guys.

[Never]

CD4 is cancelling out 2 and 3.



These aren't the exact CDs, but I "rounded" to the nearest whole county. Hinds and Madison are actually split; I gave all of Hinds to 2 and Madison to 3.

McDaniel won that CD by a higher margin than the incumbent congressman from there. If He won a decent chunk of the Taylor vote then a former Dem may be the reason the Tea Party picks up a Senate seat haha.

It's interesting that McDaniel only won 1 out of 4 congressinoal districts in Mississippi.

Is CD-4 the most conservative district, or is it being swayed because McDaniel is from there? I'm not exactly familiar with the districts down there.

[Miles]

CD4 is cancelling out 2 and 3.



These aren't the exact CDs, but I "rounded" to the nearest whole county. Hinds and Madison are actually split; I gave all of Hinds to 2 and Madison to 3.

McDaniel won that CD by a higher margin than the incumbent congressman from there. If He won a decent chunk of the Taylor vote then a former Dem may be the reason the Tea Party picks up a Senate seat haha.

It's interesting that McDaniel only won 1 out of 4 congressinoal districts in Mississippi.

Is CD-4 the most conservative district, or is it being swayed because McDaniel is from there? I'm not exactly familiar with the districts down there.

CD4 cast the most votes:

CD1: 21.9%
CD2: 16.6%
CD3: 26.8%
CD4: 34.7%

[Never]

Thanks for the info Miles.

Final update of the night: AOSHQDD has McDaniel at 49.64% and Cochran at 48.8%. McDaniel has 149,144 votes, and Cochran has 146,916 votes. It seems like this race will take a while to be called, and that a runoff is the most likely outcome. We'll probably find out in the AM.

Iowa was great news for Joni Ernst. Apparently, she has strong support from her party.

Montana seems strange with the congressional district, one would think that Zinke could have done better.

California has had a busy night, as usual. There are a lot of congressional races there, and many strange results that may or may not sort themselves out over the next few hours.

With that, I'm going to sleep.

[Miles]

AOS is projecting McDaniel at 49.96% without Holmes County.

[cinyc]

About 2,500 votes just came in from Rankin County.  They went 50.5%-48.6% Cochran.  Not a big enough Cochran margin to change the statewide margin - 49.6%-48.8% McDaniel.  Rankin is now 84% in (8 precincts left to count).

All of Holmes County remains out, along with 4 precincts in Hinds County and 2 precincts in tiny Jefferson County.  Jefferson County is about 85% black, and has only cast 219 Republican primary votes so far.

McDaniel would need to win 87.5%-72.5% of the remaining expected 3,000-5,000 votes to avoid a runoff.  Impossible.

What are Mississippi's rules for counting absentees?  Are they included in tonight's tallies?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I wouldn't expect to see the remaining vote come in until at least about 6 hours from now if not even more than that. It'll probably go to a runoff, but who knows?

With that, I'm done updating for the night. Sweet Nightmares to all.

[Miles]

Second CA-07 runoff slot called for Ose.

[Tender Branson]

Good to see that my prediction was almost 100% correct in MS:

I said 49-48 McDaniel, it's 50-49 now.