Rank the states by highest margin for mccain to highest margin for obama

[Klippa]

Utah   –40%
Oklahoma   –32%
Wyoming   –32%
Nebraska   –31%
Idaho   –30%
Alabama   –28%
Alaska   –24%
Kansas   –22%
Kentucky   –21%
Texas   –20%
Mississippi   –19%
North Carolina   –18%
Indiana   –17%
Georgia   –16%
West Virginia   –16%
North Dakota   –15%
Tennessee   –14%
South Carolina   –13%
South Dakota   –12%
Montana   –10%
Louisiana   –10%
Missouri   –9%
Arizona   –9%
Virginia   –4%
Ohio   –3%
Florida   –1%
Iowa   –0%
Colorado   0%
Minnesota   0%
New Hampshire   1%
Arkansas   1%
Wisconsin   1%
New Mexico   3%
Pennsylvania   3%
Nevada   3%
Maine   4%
New Jersey   4%
Washington   5%
Maryland   7%
Delaware   8%
Michigan   8%
Oregon   13%
Illinois   15%
New York   16%
California   16%
Connecticut   21%
Vermont   23%
Massachusetts   29%
Rhode Island   33%
Hawaii   35%
District of Columbia   90%

The percentage following each is the deviation I expect from the national margin. So at 50:50 split nationally Obama will have taken NV, NM, AR and CO. (I know: he'll take CO before he takes NV and he'll take IA before he takes AR. The numbers are based on observing trends in these margins in past elections. AR oscillates left and right of the national margin. It looks due for a swing to the Dems.) If the national figure is 54% to Obama, which seems reasonable (and not as large as either of Bill Clinton's), then he takes IA, FL, OH and VA too.

[Klippa]

WTF??? Do  you really believe that IN, GA, WV, ND, TN, SC, SD, MT and LA will be closer then NC. If so then you don't know anything about America and how states vote.

No, I don't really believe any of those states will be better for Obama than NC. As I (sort of) said I projected recent trends for each state. That will work for a lot of states, but of course some states will turn around or continue a recently initiated trend that won't show up till next election.
NC had been trending toward fairly steadily toward the Dems from the 1830s to the 1920s. Since the 1940 it has turned Rep. I suspect you are right. The stopping of the slide in 2000 and the upturn in 2004 may well be the beginning of a medium-term trned back to the Dems. (Rather than a false dawn, as there was in 1968 and 1984–88.)
If you just project NC's change from 2000 (13.4%) to 2004 (10.0%), you could predict 6.6% this time. (If I'd looked at where NC had fallen I would probably have made that change myself.)
It's an odd thing about Arkansas though: I know there was a Clinton factor, but it's been swinging heavily for the last 50 years. Solidly Dem (at least 14% from the national figure) from 1836 to 1956 (except for Grant's 2 wins during the Reconstruction). Since then though it has veered wildly, strongly Dem for an election or 2 and then fairly strongly GOP. It might not be just a Clinton factor. It might be a Southerner factor. They voted more Dem than the nation when the Dem was a southerner (George Wallace (IND) in 64, Carter in 76 and 80, Clinton in 92 and 96). But then Johnson and Gore were Southerners and in 64 and 2000 AR swung to the Reps.
So my apologies to elcorazon. I didn't give as much consideration to placement of every state as I should have.
If I could work out how to create my prediction map I would do so. Is there a further registration needed to do that?