Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg (state):

Salzburg City and suburbs trended strongly to VdB, the districts in the South all trended strongly to Hofer, incl. Zell am See where I am.

[Tender Branson]

Tyrol:

All 9 districts trended strongly from Waldheim to VdB, ranging from 7 points in Schwaz to 26 points each in Landeck and Reutte.

[Tender Branson]

Vorarlberg:

Trended heavily from Waldheim to VdB, ranging from 17 points in Bludenz to 28 points in Bregenz.

[Cranberry]

What's up with the non-contiguous part of Tirol? (this may not be the best thread for the question, but I've never noticed it before)

I hear a question about Tirol? I'm right onto it xD

Tirol, as you might know, is bigger than the Austrian state of Tirol - the county of Tirol, an entity (I'm not sure whether to call it a country or not, so we'll leave it at that) since the 13th century, until 1919 went as far south as the Lake Garda, including the nowadays Italian provinces of Bolzano/Bozen and Trento, known in German as Südtirol (South Tirol) and, the latter very archaically and with a kind of derogatory meaning, Welschtirol ("Welsh" Tirol -> this word has the exact same root as the Welsh from Wales, as it's the old Germanic word to denote Celts and/or Romans), nowadays we use the Italian name Trentino. Südtirol however included not only the modern province of Bozen, but also the court districts of Matrei and Lienz, which precisely make up that modern exclave. As opposed to the rest of Südtirol however*, those two lay on the Eastern side of the continental watershed, the one going to the Danube. At the Saint-Germain treaty in 1919, Italy received from the Entete as "price" for entering into the war against Austria-Hungary all those parts of the county of Tirol that lay on the southwestern, Italian-bound side of the watershed - so all of the Trentino, and practically of South Tirol, with the exception of the area around Matrei and Lienz, which remained with Austria, and obviously formed part of the new federal state of Tirol, as the (administrative) district of Lienz (there's a difference between court and administrative districts, and the latter didn't exist in the monarchy, afai).

*the star is here because there are actually two municipalities in modern-day South Tirol, and a part of a third, that are on the Eastern side of the watershed, and thus by the Saint Germain treaty should actually be part of Austria. These are the small towns of Innichen and Sexten (completely) and Toblach (partially) - Italy illegally occupied the former because of an important railway station, and the latter because it is at the end of the most important road north from Venice into the alps. Austria didn't have the power to protest that initially and the issue was later (my money is on Hitler, though I'm not sure - but when it comes to throwing South Tirol under the bus, Hitler is the go-to-guy) solved in Italy's favour. Italy generally, and not just the fascists, mind you, did some serious cobbling with borders and the such in that area, mainly to the extent to limit the barbaric Germanic minority up north to the smallest area possible, but that's not really your question, and I should really stop myself now, because I could write pages upon pages on that topic.

TL;dr - It's Osttirol, the district of Lienz, and formed historically part of South Tirol, within the larger county of Tirol. As opposed to the rest of South Tirol, it remained with Austria after 1919, and thus, with the federal state of Tirol, making up the Austrian part of the county of Tirol.

[Flocke]

*the star is here because there are actually two municipalities in modern-day South Tirol, and a part of a third, that are on the Eastern side of the watershed, and thus by the Saint Germain treaty should actually be part of Austria. These are the small towns of Innichen and Sexten (completely) and Toblach (partially) - Italy illegally occupied the former because of an important railway station, and the latter because it is at the end of the most important road north from Venice into the alps.

That was part of the peace treaty:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/dfat/treaties/1920/3.html

[palandio]

[...] At the Saint-Germain treaty in 1919, Italy received from the Entete as "price" for entering into the war against Austria-Hungary all those parts of the county of Tirol that lay on the southwestern, Italian-bound side of the watershed [...]

The definition of the border through the watershed (with the exceptions pointed out by flocke) still has implications today: The highest point of the Brenner Base Tunnel will be exactly under the border, in order not to alter the border-defining watershed even inside the tunnel.

[Tender Branson]

1986 (Waldheim/Steyrer) => 2016 (VdB/Hofer) trend map:



Green districts trending to VdB (6 shades in 5% intervals, max. trend was 28.2 points)

Blue districts trending to Hofer (6 shades in 5% intervals, max. trend was 28.0 points)

[adma]

The 1986 => 2016 trend map by district will be awesome ...

For example, in 1986 Vienna-Neubau voted with 56% for Waldheim, but Hofer only got 19% there.

Which means Neubau was Waldheim+2 in 1986, but VdB+31 now when compared with the national results ... !

On the other hand, Vienna-Simmering voted just 33% Waldheim (-21). But Hofer got 51% (+1).

In general, Vienna's inner-city districts all voted strongly for Waldheim back in 1986 and the outer districts all voted strongly for his SPÖ-opponent.

30 years later, it's the total opposite: VdB got the highest margins in the inner-city districts, while the working-class districts in the South and North had the best Hofer-results.

Think of it as the Viennese version of John Tory vs Doug Ford in 2014's Toronto mayoral election.

[Cranberry]

*the star is here because there are actually two municipalities in modern-day South Tirol, and a part of a third, that are on the Eastern side of the watershed, and thus by the Saint Germain treaty should actually be part of Austria. These are the small towns of Innichen and Sexten (completely) and Toblach (partially) - Italy illegally occupied the former because of an important railway station, and the latter because it is at the end of the most important road north from Venice into the alps.

That was part of the peace treaty:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oh woops, I must have had something wrongly in mind then. There were some irregularities with the new border, but I cannot recall what it was just now. But the area of Innichen was it not then. Thanks for pointing it out!

http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/dfat/treaties/1920/3.html

[Tender Branson]

The official results of the Presidential runoff will be released on Wednesday, but they are unlikely to change significantly. Only the publishing error from Waidhofen/Ybbs will reduce the VdB numbers a bit and increase Hofer's numbers somewhat.

Other than that, there have been some irregularities in Linz (publishing error within a precinct, no impact on the overall votes), 4 Carinthian districts (postal ballots were opened early, no impact on the actual vote count) and 1 Styrian district (also no impact).

In general, the FPÖ has no reason whatsoever to contest the election after the official results are out.

But still, the Interior Minister gave a press conference today in which he said that the postal vote count might be reformed so that the ballots will be counted on Sunday night already and that each precinct election commission member will get a mandatory "vote count" lesson.

[Cranberry]

Any data on voters with a Yugoslavian background?

Serbs: 99.99999999% Hofer

Seriously though, Serbs probably voted 65+% for Hofer.

A lot of Serbs are Blue collar workers, almost all I know who are living in Austria are.


Plus we Serbs had a bad time with Islamisation (15-20 Century) so many don't like the rapid Islamisation of Austria. (Christians drifting away from religion, a bit like me, while Muslims only grow in numbers)

For example in Germany this is the new Kinder Chocolate box (not that I mind these children's faces on the box, but I think the Natives should always be the largest people group, which in a 100 years is not looking likely.):

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/05/25/99057850_Packages_of_a_popular_chocolate_bar_with_childhood_pictures_of_German_national_soccer_playe-large_trans++eo_i_u9APj8RuoebjoAHt0k9u7HhRJvuo-ZLenGRumA.jpg

I'm just using this to give an example of the changes in the population.

Wonder if there will be any real Austrians and Germans left in like a 100 years..

I would like to keep this perfect example of a Nazi sentiment framed and posted on the wall. We need to know whom we are dealing with.

I think it is remarkable that even the effing PEGIDA-leadership defended those Kinder-boxes after some nazis complained about them. Think about that for a moment.

[Tender Branson]

1/6 Austrians do not want a "Boateng" (= a black person) as their neighbour:



http://derstandard.at/2000037944314/Einer-von-sechs-Oesterreichern-will-Boateng-nicht-als-Nachbarn

http://www.dw.com/en/merkel-slams-vile-afd-comment-on-boateng/a-19294295

[jaichind]

1/6 Austrians do not want a "Boateng" (= a black person) as their neighbour:



http://derstandard.at/2000037944314/Einer-von-sechs-Oesterreichern-will-Boateng-nicht-als-Nachbarn

http://www.dw.com/en/merkel-slams-vile-afd-comment-on-boateng/a-19294295

I am not sure that is the right question to ask,  People will have all sorts of preferences in terms of who they want to associate with which are driven by all sorts of factors such as tribal loyalties, ideological loyalties, social-economic loyalties etc etc.  In fact I suspect the real answer to the question asked would be a much higher percentage since the general egalitarian universalist socialization in modern Western society would put a negative answer as something embarrassing.    A better question should be "Do you support using state power (laws) to ensure that "Boateng" does not show up as your neighbor?"

[Tender Branson]

1/6 Austrians do not want a "Boateng" (= a black person) as their neighbour:



http://derstandard.at/2000037944314/Einer-von-sechs-Oesterreichern-will-Boateng-nicht-als-Nachbarn

http://www.dw.com/en/merkel-slams-vile-afd-comment-on-boateng/a-19294295

I am not sure that is the right question to ask,  People will have all sorts of preferences in terms of who they want to associate with which are driven by all sorts of factors such as tribal loyalties, ideological loyalties, social-economic loyalties etc etc.  In fact I suspect the real answer to the question asked would be a much higher percentage since the general egalitarian universalist socialization in modern Western society would put a negative answer as something embarrassing.    A better question should be "Do you support using state power (laws) to ensure that "Boateng" does not show up as your neighbor?"

Still, it's really disturbing that every 6th person is virtually a racist. Boateng is probably more German than most AfD people (or at least achieved more for Germany than these racist suckers) ...

[jaichind]

Still, it's really disturbing that every 6th person is virtually a racist. Boateng is probably more German than most AfD people (or at least achieved more for Germany than these racist suckers) ...

Well, sorry to go off topic.  I think by this sort of standard the "bad" population would be quite large.  We should get people's preferences by what they do when they have total free choice without political or social consequences and not what they say.   In the USA over 80% of Churches are dominated by one ethnic group (80% or greater of the Church going population are of one ethnic group.) 

[Tender Branson]

Today, the official and certified results of the runoff were released.

The falsely reported numbers from Waidhofen/Ybbs city on the BMI's results page were corrected in these final numbers. VdB's winning margin dropped from slightly over 31.000 to slightly under 31.000 - Other than that, no changes to the provisonal results.

All the final results:

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at

Excel:

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/bundespraes/bpw_2016/FILES/Endgueltiges_Gesamtergebnis_BPW16_2WG.xlsx

Certificate:

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/bundespraes/bpw_2016/FILES/Kundmachung_BWB_BPW16_Ergebnis_2WG.pdf

...

The FPÖ now has until June 8 (midnight) to contest the election at the Constitutional Court.

But it's still unclear if they will actually do it.

[Tender Branson]

Probably many Jews in Austria voted for Hofer in the presidential runoff, says a chief rabbi:

Far-right parties winning over some Jewish voters, top rabbi warns

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-farright-jews-idUSKCN0YM2KE

[Tender Branson]

Someone burned down a brand-new wooden asylum seeker house in Upper Austria overnight, which was built for 300.000€ by the Red Cross and which was intended to open soon to house 50 asylum seekers there north of Linz:



http://derstandard.at/2000037998380/Neugebautes-Fluechtlingsheim-in-Oberoesterreich-abgebrannt

Disgusting. Unlike in Germany, such incidents are quite rare here. Even the FPÖ was dismayed and called the attack intolerable.

[Tender Branson]

Today, the official and certified results of the runoff were released.

(...)

The FPÖ now has until June 8 (midnight) to contest the election at the Constitutional Court.

The FPÖ will decide shortly before the deadline if they will contest it or not. Currently, a team of legal experts is collecting cases of election irregularities for them.

http://www.tt.com/politik/innenpolitik/11578743-91/fp%C3%B6-wird-kurz-vor-frist-ende-%C3%BCber-wahl-anfechtung-entscheiden.csp

[Tender Branson]

I found an additional VdB vs. Hofer map (strength by town):



Plus, Georg Ebner's district map (winning margin):



And this one from electoralgeography.com:

[Tender Branson]

This is hilarious:

Wald-Königsleiten, a ski-resort town of about 1.000 people in my district, will invest over 1 million € in the next 3 years to buy more than 20 e-cars and several charging stations in the area, which residents and guests alike can rent and use for their transport free of charge. Plus hundreds of e-bikes will be available for rental. To raise the awareness of Green energy and transport !

The town voted with 78% for Norbert Hofer (FPÖ).

https://www.zillertalarena.com/en/wald-koenigsleiten/sommer/e-bob.html

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-leader Strache is "leaning" towards contesting the election at the Constitutional court, because the FPÖ's team of "independent legal experts" has found enough "irregularities" for such a case. The number of votes involved in these "irregularities" are higher than VdB's winning margin (31.000 votes), according to Strache. Strache also wants to abolish the "evil" postal vote:

http://orf.at/stories/2343087

[Tender Branson]

New Salzburg state election (=> 2018) poll:

28% ÖVP
26% FPÖ
18% Greens
16% SPÖ
  5% NEOS
  3% FPS
  3% SBG
  1% Others

http://www.salzburgerfenster.at/2016/05/24/in-zeiten-des-umbruchs-wie-salzburg-jetzt-waehlen-wuerde

[Tender Branson]

Some FPÖ-politician from Graz made a video in which he "teaches" asylum seekers how to deal with Austrian women, using a plastic doll:



The video's name was "Hands off our women, dear Mr. Asylum Seeker !", but was deleted from YouTube after a ton of negative comments.

A copy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unHFnPPdCEQ

[Tender Branson]

Districts with cases of voting/counting irregularities in the runoff, which the FPÖ might use for contesting the election at the Constitutional Court:



A total of 10 districts had some form of voting/counting irregularities.

7 were won by Hofer (FPÖ) and 3 by VdB (Greens).

In 6/10, the problem was that postal ballots were already opened on Sunday and "pre-selected" for counting, even though the election law says that postal vote counting has to start no earlier than Monday. Obviously, this had no impact on the number or validity of votes.

In 2/10 there was a publishing problem with the total amount of votes. While Linz and Waidhofen cities (both won by VdB) had the correct election results on their websites, there were higher numbers reported on the federal election results page. This was fixed with the release of the official results on June 1.

In a Hofer-voting town in Lower Austria, six under-16 year olds voted. This was because the municipal worker in charge of the voter-list made an error when compiling the list of eligible voters. The 6 votes were invalidated with the official results on June 1.

And in a Hofer-voting town in Upper Austria, a mayor apparently tore apart 3 ballots. According to FPÖ-reports ...