Ukraine Crisis

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, the current situation is that the Russians had agreed to not take any measures against Ukrainian troops on Crimea until March 21. What happens on March 22 is anybody's guess.

It seems very unlikely that Ukraine is simply gonna withdraw them. So, from a Russian point of view, the options are as follows:

1) Attack and forcibly withdraw them.
2) Continue to besiege them until they run out of supplies and surrender.
3) Recognize the independence of Crimea, but postpone its admission to the Russian Federation  until the issue of Ukrainian troops is resolved.

My bet would on no. 2 at this point.

I guess there's also a slight possibility that if the Ukrainians are convinced that the Russians are about to attack that they're become desperate enough to try to launch a preemptive strike first.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Putin's speech from today sounded as if he just relaunched the Cold War.

Welcome back to 1948. The more things change, the more they stay the same, huh?

[Middle-aged Europe]

A Ukrainian military base in Simforopol is reportedly under attack.

[Middle-aged Europe]

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https://twitter.com/IvanCNN

[Middle-aged Europe]

Interfax-Ukraine reports one Ukrainian soldier killed.

Ukrainian premier confirms attack.

[Middle-aged Europe]

"Today, Russian soldiers began shooting at Ukrainian servicemen and this is a war crime without any expiry under a statute of limitations." - Ukrainian prime minister Arseny Yatseniuk.

[Middle-aged Europe]

G8 has officially moved its annual summit in June from Sochi to Brussels, and they un-invited Russia.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Also seems to dispel this notion that the Ukrainian government is fascist or propped up by these people.

Maybe...but then again, Svoboda still is very much a part of the government.

In the cabinet, they control the ministries of environment and agriculture... and are probably pushing for a fascist agriculture policy for Ukraine or something.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution supporting territorial integrity for Ukraine and declaring the Crimean referendum on March 16 invalid.

100 yes votes, 11 no votes, 58 abstentions.

The "no" votes were:

- Armenia
- Belarus
- Bolivia
- Cuba
- Nicaragua
- North Korea
- Russia
- Sudan
- Syria
- Venezuela
- Zimbabwe

China abstained for obvious reason. On one hand, they don't want to support the West. On the other hand, they don't want a precedent for a formal Taiwan secession.

Russia's ally Kazakhstan also abstained.

[Middle-aged Europe]

He said he would conform to "a status similar to that of Bavaria in Germany".

An interesting statement considering that Bavaria has no special constitutional status whatsoever compared to other German states. Bavaria's "special autonomy" mainly stems from the fact that the CSU is not a part of the federal CDU. So, the Ukrainian equivalent would be demanding the formation of a (non-separatist) regionalist party in the Donetsk oblast.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In response to the situation in Ukraine, BILD newspaper has initiated a petition for the removal of the Russian tanks in front of the Soviet War Memorial in Berlin-Tiergarten.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_War_Memorial_%28Tiergarten%29

That'll teach 'em a lesson!!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Russian tanks and soldiers have now entered Eastern Ukraine, near Slawjansk:

Those are Ukrainian tanks who have switched sides and are now supporting the separatists (and are hence flying the Russian flag).

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to that Wikipedia page, the position of Belarus is pretty incoherent, so maybe the similar true with regards to Cuba :

"Position of  Belarus is vague: it includes "Ukraine should remain an integral, indivisible, non-aligned state" and "As for Crimea, I do not like it when the integrity and independence of a country are broken", on the one hand, and "Today Crimea is part of the Russian Federation. No matter whether you recognize it or not, the fact remains." and "Whether Crimea will be recognized as a region of the Russian Federation de-jure does not really matter", on the other hand.[9]"

Translation: So, Crimea is part of Ukraine... except that it's not.

[Middle-aged Europe]

[Middle-aged Europe]

A group of OSCE military observers led by a German army colonel has been taken prisoner by a pro-Russian militia group in Sloviansk.

Militia leader accuses them of espionage, but says he's willing to trade them against imprisoned separatists.

It took only two months for Ukraine to turn into friggin Afghanistan.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The mayor of Kharkiv was severely wounded in a shooting.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Breaking: Gerhard Schröder celebrates his 70th birthday with Putin in Moscow.

And the bromance continues!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany's KSK (Special Forces Command) has denied reports that they're planning a rescure operation for the OSCE hostages in Sloviansk.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Russia says that the Donetsk independence referendum should be postponed and that they may recognize the results of the Ukrainian presidential election.

OMG, what does it mean? Is Putin trying to lull is into a false sense of security while he's prepping for a nuclear strike against America?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Donetsk and Luhansk have merged to form the new country of "New Russia"... which probably is an epic fail of a country considering its generic name.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'm going to leave this here

Without hindsight, Obama was certainly right at the time and I'm still wondering how Romney arrived at the conclusion that Russia is America's "geopolitical foe no. 1". If anything, you had to name China from a 2012 perspective.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In other news, France is still intending to deliver the first of two Mistral-class amphibious assault ships to the Russian navy this fall and continues to see no reason for cancelling the deal.

So, if anyone assumed that the EU is implementing sanctions on Russia... FORGET IT. The bottomline is that Russia is paying France almost two billion Euros for two warships (and the United States isn't).

At least the German government seems to be somewhat discontent with France's behavior, especially since Germany had already ordered arms industry giant Rheinmetall to stop building a high-tech "combat training center" for the Russian army right after Crimea happened.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In related news, French-in-Russian-tax-exile actor Gerard Depardieu could be appointed head of the new Crimean wine agency:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/gerard-depardieu-should-oversee-wine-721566

http://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2014/07/depardieu-to-be-face-of-crimean-wine/

[Middle-aged Europe]

In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands.

The latter part is a bit silly IMO.

In the Treaty of San Francisco, Japan had to give up claims on the Kuril Islands and now the US is backing away from this. Well, as long as America doesn't insist that Kaliningrad still belongs to Germany...

[Middle-aged Europe]

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Breaking: Ukraine claims to have attacked and partially destroyed Russian military convoy.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukrainische-truppen-greifen-russischen-konvoi-an-a-986396.html (in German, don't have time to look for an English link right now)