Democratic pickup in MS-01

[minionofmidas]

Yup.

This map is about as unsurprising as it could possibly be (except maybe Lowndes in the southeast corner).
I note it does not reflect media markets.

You people do realize that this district provided probably well over half of Kerry's white vote in Mississippi in 2004. The eastern counties voted for Bush, yes, but they're as lilywhite as it gets in Mississippi (so, not quite lilywhite), so the bulk of the 30 or 40 percent Democrat vote is coming from Whites. Kerry's white share of the vote in or near the black belt - and those counties in the western part of the district are very near the black belt - was probably less than Bush's share of the black vote. Small wonder few of these people switched this year either. And small wonder Obama won the primary in those western counties - most voters in the Dem primary were black.

[minionofmidas]

Well, mostly, I think the lesson here is that just about anything can happen in a special election, even in districts with a PVI as extreme as +/- 10.

And that Republicans and Democrats should not endeavor to just put up any candidate with the thought that they'll be assured of victory no matter what.  I mean, Oberweis and Jenkins most definitely do not reflect the best the GOP had to offer in either of those races, and that's showing at the ballot box.

While they're interesting to look at, these races don't tell us much about what will happen in 2008, when we'll likely have record high turnout at the polls (as opposed to painfully low turnout in some of these special elections).  Indeed, both the GOP and Democratic Party could be wasting hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars on seats that are just not able to be reliably held for the longterm.

I'm fairly confident in predicting a drop in the total vote cast in 2008 compared with 2004.

[minionofmidas]

Well, mostly, I think the lesson here is that just about anything can happen in a special election, even in districts with a PVI as extreme as +/- 10.

And that Republicans and Democrats should not endeavor to just put up any candidate with the thought that they'll be assured of victory no matter what.  I mean, Oberweis and Jenkins most definitely do not reflect the best the GOP had to offer in either of those races, and that's showing at the ballot box.

While they're interesting to look at, these races don't tell us much about what will happen in 2008, when we'll likely have record high turnout at the polls (as opposed to painfully low turnout in some of these special elections).  Indeed, both the GOP and Democratic Party could be wasting hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars on seats that are just not able to be reliably held for the longterm.

I'm fairly confident in predicting a drop in the total vote cast in 2008 compared with 2004.

Really, why?  I disagree.

Because 2004 had the highest turnout in decades for a reason - the highly polarizing nitwit that held the presidency, and the fact that !111!AMEHRICA!111! was under !111!ATAK!111! - and these conditions aren't prevailing. Republicans will have a tough time coaxing their 2004 first-time voters back to the polls, and not all the Dems' first-time voters (of which there were more, though not in all states) will show up either.

[minionofmidas]

Look, everyone is probably right here in some way or form.  There's always more than one explanation for a problem.  If I had more time, I'd go into the details.

Vaguest post ever.

He would have the necessary time if he didn't spend so much of his time being bitter towards guns and religion.

[minionofmidas]

This is where the action should be, primarily because the regional division here should be close to equivalent. (if that makes any sense - it's a poor sentence)

So this is more of a regional (an oversimplification: the GOP exurbs such as DeSoto County vs. the more populist rural areas) than a partisan struggle?

If it were just that, Davis wouldn't stand a chance yet. Look at the map - he's keeping the Black Belt Whites too.

[minionofmidas]

A snippet from today's NY Times, quoted primarily for the second sentence:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sounds like he's lowballing himself to try to increase D turnout.  Everything I've heard says that Childers is up by 5 points in both sets of internals.

Let's hope so... the bit about negative rating is certainly believable - this campaign seems to have gotten much uglier (on both sides) in the past three weeks.

[minionofmidas]

What time do polls close?

[minionofmidas]

The key numbers to examine, and I will pull them up if I have time (or someone else does) are the numbers from the election two weeks ago.

Once a county gets to 100%, we should have an idea where the race is going.

I'd wait til we have at least one western, "black belt whites", and one eastern, hillbillies county before I'd make any sort of deduction. Plus at least a notion of what's happening in De Soto.

[minionofmidas]

Looks like South Memphis (thank you, Cheney) wasn't enough for Greg Davis.

If Davis loses tonight, I'm sure most Republicans will say that Glenn McCullough would've beaten Childers.

And he would have. Thank you, Suburban Republicans!
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[minionofmidas]

Is this the "Mississippi Burning" district?

That's MS-2, I think.

MS-3, actually.

[minionofmidas]

The last time it happened on the same day was South Carolina in 1966; Strom Thurmond (R) was re-elected, and Fritz Hollings (D) won the special election.

ty

Eh... there could have been worse states to draw hope for a MS race from than SC.