New South Wales State Election, 2015

[Barnes]

The latest Newspoll, conducted before John Robertson's resignation, has the Liberals up 56-44 2PP.

That's not too bad, that is a 8 point swing to Labor.

Precisely.  NSW Labor is still in deep muck, and were never going to win this election (at least in my opinion), any improvement from the disaster of 2011 will help set them up on the road to recovery.  So I guess the real race is not to see if there'll be a change of government, but how big a swing Labor can pull off to help refill their ranks.

[Barnes]

Labor will win, to the surprise of everyone. You heard it here first.

Well, we can only hope!

Although, you can never be very sure in politics, no matter how certain things might be - just look at the Fisher by-election in SA this month.

[Barnes]

Galaxy has it as 53-47 to the Coalition, down from 54-46 last time around.

And if preferences go like they did in Queensland, it might be more like 51-49.

That's one of the biggest lessons to learn from Queensland: you simply can't assume preferences will remain basically unchanged from the last election.

[Barnes]

Galaxy has it as 53-47 to the Coalition, down from 54-46 last time around.

And if preferences go like they did in Queensland, it might be more like 51-49.

That's one of the biggest lessons to learn from Queensland: you simply can't assume preferences will remain basically unchanged from the last election.

Yeah, while in CPV I tend to favour results which use preferences from the last election, for OPV I prefer polls which use respondent allocated preferences.

Yep, there is certainly a distinction between the two, but I do think that there's been a least a moderate shift in preference flows here.